JJ with two overcards on board

[rzk]

i don't have a lot hands on the villain, 40/24 after only 30 or so hands, so he could easily be a tag or a lag. what's the plan on the turn?

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO 3-bets</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero caps</font>, CO calls, UTG calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (13.5SB, 3 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, UTG folds.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7.75BB, 2 players)
Hero scratches his head and ...

[Oink]

Well he shouldnt be peeling AQ, AJ on this flop.

I dunno. This sucks. I cant c/c twice and I cant b/f because that sucks in the laggy FT games.

On the other hand if he has a lower pp it doesnt cost you a lot if he checks behind.

I think I c/c and hope he checks behind the river

[efficacy]

I would actually b/f this because I hate c/c and that is really the only other viable option. If villain wants to raise the turn on an KxxA board with a worse hand than mine after I cap preflop, his bluffs are going to get very expensive very fast.

[Cobretti]

I like c/c for turn and river, although this is a nasty little spot.

1) Pot is too big and there is too much chance he has pocket pair to b/f. His flop call could easily be, "I hope hero has a hand like A,Q and my pocket pair holds up" type call. However, there is of course a good chance he has the A,x type hand [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
2) You don't want him to get away from his smaller pocket pair so easily if he has one. You can likely induce 1 or 2 bluffs by checking.
3) There are no draws to worry about giving a free card to.

[efficacy]

[ QUOTE ]
I like c/c for turn and river, although this is a nasty little spot.

1) Pot is too big and there is too much chance he has pocket pair to b/f.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but how often does he raise a worse PP - close to never in my estimate, unless he is a known maniac.

[ QUOTE ]

2) You don't want him to get away from his smaller pocket pair so easily if he has one. You can likely induce 1 or 2 bluffs by checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think when you c/c (especially two streets) you are getting value bet WAAAY more often than you are inducing bluffs. There are a lot more hands that are beating us than the other way around.

[ QUOTE ]

3) There are no draws to worry about giving a free card to.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is true, but I think giving up the lead is just asking ourselves to get v-bet to death. Also, what about the times villain gives up on QQ or the other JJ when we keep barreling away at this turn?

If I bet this turn and get called again, I am likely c/f the river unless I spike a J. Is that bad?

[vmacosta]

While bet/fold is perhaps the least stressful way to play the hand, there really is 0 value in a bet. It's hard to imagine TT finds a call and QQ finds a fold (though i suppose the latter is possible). Qjs/qts are a tiny part of his range.

I'd check and call a bet. If he checks behind I think you should bet the river. Otherwise I think you can just c/f the river as oink suggested.

[Cobretti]

[ QUOTE ]
While bet/fold is perhaps the least stressful way to play the hand, there really is 0 value in a bet. It's hard to imagine TT finds a call and QQ finds a fold (though i suppose the latter is possible). Qjs/qts are a tiny part of his range.

I'd check and call a bet. If he checks behind I think you should bet the river. Otherwise I think you can just c/f the river as oink suggested.

[/ QUOTE ]
I can maybe see a case for c/f the river if you bet the turn and he called. But, I could never fold the river if I c/c'd the turn. You are getting 11/1. When you check the turn you are showing weakness and you are saying the A scared you. You are inducing him to bluff if he has nothing and when you check the river you are showing weakness again and he might fire a desperation bet with a small pair or busted draw. I think an unknown easily shows up with junk more than 1 in 11 times.

[midnightpulp]

I think both VMA's and Effacacy's lines are good.