10/20 Stud HI - 4th Street decision

[RustyBrooks]

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Furthermore, I can think of absolutely no reason for him to be making a single bet if he does have trip Js.

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He wants you to call?

[Wahoo73]

I would agree with you if hero had a different board than AXs and hadn't raised on 3rd street. In other words, it would make sense for villain to single-bet trip Js if he was absolutely certain he was way ahead and he was just trying to string hero along. But in this case, hero may not only have a very live pair of As but also may have a very live flush draw. Therefore, at least in my mind, villain should want to protect his somewhat vulnerable trip Js by making a double bet.

[PoorLawyer]

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Stud High isn't my best game but I think that folding is best here. He is 2/3s likely to have trips (significant favourite) and 1/3 likely two pair (small favourite).

It is doubtful that he is drawing because of the three clubs are out and the fact that your ace raise and his jack call is likely to drive out the remaining opponents giving less pot odds to hit a flush. The cards that are out seem to indicate that he is not likely to be drawing a straight either.

Again stud high is not my best game but if anyone would like to say why I might be wrong - I am all ears....

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I like the thinking, but don't neccesarily agree with the 2/3 to 1/3 numbers. There are many hands he can have. It is 2 clubs out as the 3rd one is his, so I think it is reasonably likely for a flush draw to call 3rd, as well as any other big pair that isn't jacks.

If he does have jacks, he could be stringing me along with a small bet on 4th, but that is something you usually only see in lower limit games (of which I know he isn't a regular on, at least at this site). Most would bet big and just hope to be done with the hand whether they have trips or not.

Again, this is an unknown villain, but a lot of 10/20 and up players would raise a big pair here, either to get it heads up, or because they think I am light; they would not just call along and let others in.

I don't quite understand this statement: "It is doubtful that he is drawing because of the three clubs are out and the fact that your ace raise and his jack call is likely to drive out the remaining opponents giving less pot odds to hit a flush."
I would think it is the opposite and calling is exactly what you do with a flush draw - you want players in so you have odds to draw so just call to encourage others to come along.

All that being said, I agree I am either way behind or way ahead and one of us is very likely drawing to 4 outs (though I can make the bigger hand if we both hit). I just don't think I'm ready to fold this hand.

[Mathew82]

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I like the thinking, but don't neccesarily agree with the 2/3 to 1/3 numbers. There are many hands he can have. It is 2 clubs out as the 3rd one is his, so I think it is reasonably likely for a flush draw to call 3rd, as well as any other big pair that isn't jacks.

If he does have jacks, he could be stringing me along with a small bet on 4th, but that is something you usually only see in lower limit games (of which I know he isn't a regular on, at least at this site). Most would bet big and just hope to be done with the hand whether they have trips or not.

Again, this is an unknown villain, but a lot of 10/20 and up players would raise a big pair here, either to get it heads up, or because they think I am light; they would not just call along and let others in.

I don't quite understand this statement: "It is doubtful that he is drawing because of the three clubs are out and the fact that your ace raise and his jack call is likely to drive out the remaining opponents giving less pot odds to hit a flush."
I would think it is the opposite and calling is exactly what you do with a flush draw - you want players in so you have odds to draw so just call to encourage others to come along.

All that being said, I agree I am either way behind or way ahead and one of us is very likely drawing to 4 outs (though I can make the bigger hand if we both hit). I just don't think I'm ready to fold this hand.

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Thank you for the responce.

In certain games - I pretty much know the correct move in most situations - stud hi is not one of those games..lol

I came up with the 1/3 & 2/3 numbers because I believed to call an ace raise he would probably have a pair of jacks or a concealed pair. I know those odds are not mathematically correct in real terms...lol

Would it actually be correct for someone with a 3 flush to call for a single raise against an ace that is possibly on a steal and 2 cards of the suit needed are out when you are likely to be heads up?

I based it on this assumption that the flush draw would be incorrect to play based on the likelyhood of the remaining players being driven out the hand. By calling with the Jack, they now need a legitimate hand to enter the pot and since both upcards match the dead cards upcards out as well reducing the likelyhood of a small pair taking a shot at trips or 2 pair, that the flush draw would be incorrect to play?

I know he only put a single bet in after hitting his jack, but that could mean anything from any standard of player. A good player might be just mixing up his play for example. I do realise though that my thinking is along the lines of straightforward and rational play because I do not understand the value of hands fully when they are played out.

If it is the correct play to call with a flush draw. What is the more likely probability of him having a pair of jacks vs a flush?

Is the ace raise from his perspective likely to be a steal based on the board? and if so would the correct move be to reraise the ace with a pair of jacks?

Any help on improving my understanding would be appreciated.