Regular 2+2er makes great value bet against me

[midnightpulp]

Villain is a regular here. I of course cap, because I believe my hand is a fave over his 3 betting range. I don't like that Jack on the turn, I suspect Villain didn't bet here, because I'm capable of a screw play here. When he checks, I put him on something like AK, AQ, AT, KQ, KTs, maybe A7, 55, 44, 33. When I check the river, my hand might as well be face up and I know that he knows this, but I still can't put him on a specific hand.

When he bets, I think he is value betting a weak pair or AK, or knows he can't win an SD with his AT, KQ etc. and sees a good opportunity to bluff, so I call to see what the hell's going here.

Nicely played.

Anyway, who plays this different than I do? Is this a spot where a check-raise bluff can work? I thought about it. Who folds river?


PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks.

River: (5 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Qh Ac (high card, ace).
BB has As Kc (high card, ace).
Outcome: BB wins 7 BB. </font>

[MacGuyV]

An AT/KQ bluff would be pretty retarded on his part as you're pretty much folding nothing once you check the turn.

[midnightpulp]

[ QUOTE ]
An AT/KQ bluff would be pretty retarded on his part as you're pretty much folding nothing once you check the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't know my exact SD tendencies, but if he knows he can't win with those hands, why wouldn't he take a shot getting a favorable price?

I might give him enough respect to fold AQ.

But if I know he knows a bluff can't work, how can I call with AQ high?

Do you think I should be calling the river in this spot?

[rzk]

i'd b/c the turn. if he raises, i'd c/f the river UI. if he calls, i'd c/c a 2,3, 4, or Q river, b/c an ace or a ten, and c/f the rest.

as played, i'd c/f the river because he shouldn't be bluffing here against a pf capper and he doesn't have too many worse hands to call a blocking bet with.

[midnightpulp]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd b/c the turn. if he raises, i'd c/f the river UI. if he calls, i'd c/c a 2,3, 4, or Q river, b/c an ace or a ten, and c/f the rest.

as played, i'd c/f the river because he shouldn't be bluffing here against a pf capper and he doesn't have too many worse hands to call a blocking bet with.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but I think he is capable of multi-level thinking and he knows that I know he shouldn't be bluffing here, so he bluffs because it's one of those spots where you shouldn't bluff and I might give him enough credit to fold a better hand.

[Absolution]

Your hand is 90% ATs, AQ or AK on the river so I bet.

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'd b/c the turn. if he raises, i'd c/f the river UI. if he calls, i'd c/c a 2,3, 4, or Q river, b/c an ace or a ten, and c/f the rest.

as played, i'd c/f the river because he shouldn't be bluffing here against a pf capper and he doesn't have too many worse hands to call a blocking bet with.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but I think he is capable of multi-level thinking and he knows that I know he shouldn't be bluffing here, so he bluffs because it's one of those spots where you shouldn't bluff and I might give him enough credit to fold a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you think that might be the case but don't know at exactly what level he's currently thinking, just go into game theory mode and call with your AQo the appropriate fraction of the time. but i seriously doubt he thinks like that, partly because he doesn't know you well enough.

if you believe he would base his decision on your stats you could call if your wtsd&lt;34 and fold if it's &gt;37.

[MacGuyV]

[ QUOTE ]
He doesn't know my exact SD tendencies, but if he knows he can't win with those hands, why wouldn't he take a shot getting a favorable price?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I've never seen anyone cap pf, get the turn checked thru &amp; c/f the river.

[ QUOTE ]
But if I know he knows a bluff can't work, how can I call with AQ high?

Do you think I should be calling the river in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well there is a difference between theory &amp; practice, especially at these limits. Oink's thread below is a good example: "Decent players know enough to calldown dry boards" - well if that's the case should you really calldown a decent player on a T55 board if he knows that nobody folds anything on these boards why would he bluff? But of course if you fold too much that's exploitable...

At the end of the day it's kind of a circular argument so it is all hand/board dependant. The way the action plays out here your turn check makes your hand look like exactly what it is and since he should bet every pair on the turn &amp; checked &amp; you have the 2nd nut no-pair...it certainly looks like a stupid river bluff often enough to call.