Pirateboy's NCAAF Betting Conquest Year 2 - Sep 1st

[pirateboy]

Alright, last season was my first season truly betting on college football. I don't have my exact record with me, but I know I ended up over 20 units on the year, close to 30. I'll add that in when I get home tonight.

Also, I've done more research this offseason than any other before, fwiw. Last season, on opening weekend, I was 8-0. Small sample size, but a clear brag for fun. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

So, my plays for Week 1 for now, with more likely to come.

Tennessee (+5.5) @ California
-Tennessee is my alma mater, but I only bet their games when I'm ultraconfident. Tennessee's OL and running game are going to be so much better than they were in 2006, and they have a senior QB (albeit with a pinkie broken). He threw in practice today in front of the media, and those I trust said he looked 100% in velocity and accuracy. Cal's pass defense was atrocious last year, and now, their rush defense is poor, as well. I see a 31-21, 28-21 type victory for Tennessee. Remember, these seniors and juniors have played in Gainesville, Athens (twice, both victories), Fayetteville, Notre Dame, Tuscaloosa, and Baton Rouge. Tennessee is 12-1 in games where Ainge throws for 200+ yards. The loss was 2006 Florida.

Mississippi @ Memphis (+3)
-I think Memphis will be the only challenger to Southern Miss in that division. As I said in the other thread, they dealt with tons of weird scheme changes throughout the season, and now West has finally regained his sanity. Memphis was -5 in close games, so it's obvious the variance was not on their side. 2-10 was not accurate. The Rebs, as much as I want them to succeed with Coach O, won't. Seth Adams at QB? Really? No Pat Willis? Yuck. Steele has this as Memphis -3, so a 6 point difference.

UNLV (-6.5) @ Utah State
-Played it after the injury to the QB, but I still like it. Utah State is one of the 6-7 worst teams in the NCAA. While UNLV isn't that great, they should be able to win this by 2 touchdowns. I read the once-backup QBs are playing extremely well this summer.

Central Florida @ NC State (-7.5)
-I had hoped this would cross, but it's better than the 9.5 it was before. NC State was another team with awful luck last year, with I think -6 in close games. They return dynamic playmakers at QB and WR. I love Tom O'Brian as a HC, so I expect a disciplined team. UCF is meh. Not terrible, but not a good midmajor, either. I doubt they keep it within 17.

San Jose State @ Arizona State (-14.5)
-Another where 1 point more in my direction and I'd add units. I have high hopes for the Sun Devils, as I think Erickson put them at 3rd place in the Pac 10. I know SJSU had a great year by their standards, but I think the ASU offense rolls up a ton of points, 40+. The ASU defense doesn't look to be dominant, but I feel they'll be solid enough early on to hold SJSU to 21 or less.

San Jose State @ Arizona State O49
-I was shocked when I saw this. Which means it's too good to be true and I'm probably "missing" something. I think ASU *could* get 49 themselves, but if they get sayyyy 35, I think it's an easy over. Remember, 10 offensive starters back, and a questionable defense.

Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame U46
-After I bet this, I felt a bit nervous because Weis is a great offensive mind. However, a brand new starting QB, with the only proven playmaker on offense being the TE. I know Taylor Bennett is being hyped at GT, but outside of James Johnson, he doesn't have a go to target. Defenses can cancel Johnson out. Tashard Choice is a great back, for sure. I think the ND defense actually shines brighter than the offense for half the season. I think we might see a 20-17 type game.

[MyTurn2Raise]

love all but the last one

[ksufan19]

awesome, thanks for posting. love your work. GL.

[mackyg12]

Go Vols! UT undergrad here...nice picks!

[wiper]

fun starting the year a good amount up, right? happened to me too last year, and *knocking on wood* hopefully it'll go down like that again this year..

gl, sir..