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#11
05-18-2007, 07:33 AM
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Re: 3 6 top set and gutshot, looks like i have too many outs to fold
Good analysis silent. You didn't take into account those times when villian has 2 pair plus gutter or something which you are way ahead of. This is somewhat balanced by the times he has more than the bare nuts(pair also), but I am not sure they even out...
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#12
05-18-2007, 02:18 PM
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Re: 3 6 top set and gutshot, looks like i have too many outs to fold
[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis silent. You didn't take into account those times when villian has 2 pair plus gutter or something which you are way ahead of. This is somewhat balanced by the times he has more than the bare nuts(pair also), but I am not sure they even out... [/ QUOTE ] I only meant to analyze what happens against a co-ordinated JTxx, which, given the action, is by far the most likely hand villain has. The only other hand I can think of that would pot here is 2nd/3rd set and a flush draw, probably with a gutshot (e.g. A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). You'll see less of these than JTxx (because 3/4 hand combinations are inherently less common than 2 card combinations), but since you have much better equity against these types of hands you don't have to see that many to justify a call/push here. Out of curiosity, for those who are more familiar with this level, am I giving a random villain far too much credit here for a very strong hand? The lowest I can think of going to is 2 pair + FD + (probable) gutshot.
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#13
05-18-2007, 03:10 PM
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Re: 3 6 top set and gutshot, looks like i have too many outs to fold
[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiosity, for those who are more familiar with this level, am I giving a random villain far too much credit here for a very strong hand? [/ QUOTE ] I think you're giving him too much credit, but not "far" too much.
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#15
05-20-2007, 11:16 PM
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Re: 3 6 top set and gutshot, looks like i have too many outs to fold
If anything you aren't giving enough credit, I expected to see the nuts most of the time here, a good amount of that time he has a flush draw too.
I think there are some excellent points in this thread. If we call here and try to push him off a heart and get paid on a board pair, we need to be very optimistic that we can get him to commit himself on one and not the other. Also there is a decent chance he has hearts of some sort, or an ace for the same redraw we have. Also you have to put the first guy on a hand of some sort, leading this board into 3 players means he probably has pairs or hearts, both of those are bad for us. Results: I folded and didn't beat myself up over it, but I didn't like the idea of folding a hand this good for one more bet.
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