NFL undefeated season prop

[CieloAzor]

If a game is at +1500 and -3000, you should say it's between 93.8% and 96.8%, or find a way to extrapolate. You can't just use the number on one side.

Also, that -11 @ NYG is obviously factoring in that NE will have lost already or decides to rest its starters for some other reason. If NE actually makes it to 15-0, that line will surely be higher.

[Thremp]

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If a game is at +1500 and -3000, you should say it's between 93.8% and 96.8%, or find a way to extrapolate. You can't just use the number on one side.

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This part is really funny.

[NajdorfDefense]

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If NE actually makes it to 15-0, that line will surely depend 100% on if anyone finds a clue if Brady and or other players will be rested and pulled out at some point during the game or at the half.

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@Buf was 15.5, I don't know why @NYG when the NWE starters won't play the whole game should 'surely be higher' than 11-12. NYG is demonstrably better than Buf, which struggled to beat Miami after trailing almost the whole game, and was missing Lynch last week.

[Post-Oak]

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If a game is at +1500 and -3000, you should say it's between 93.8% and 96.8%, or find a way to extrapolate. You can't just use the number on one side.


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Search Ganchrow's posts for how to calculate the win percentages.

[Post-Oak]

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@Buf was 15.5,


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The key word is "was".

I think a better team to compare them to would be Pittsburgh. If you think that the Steelers are better than the Giants, but it is close, than the line looks about right.

[Post-Oak]

Well, Sportsbook opened their Week 13 lines, and they have NE -20 @ Bal.

That NYG +11 line is looking more and more like they haven't factored in a possible bench fest in the Pats last game of the season. I mean, Baltimore is one of the worst teams in the entire NFL (and they are 1-9 ATS).

[Post-Oak]

OK, Pinny has put a ML up for Phi @ NE:

Phi +2000
NE -3000

Pinny's market is saying that NE is expected to win 95.3% of the time. For those that are confused, here's how you calculate that number (thanks to Ganchrow for explaining this).

1. Figure out the break even win pct for betting on the underdog.

1 - (2000/2100) = 4.7619%

2. Figure out the break even win pct for betting on the favorite.

3000/3100 = 96.7742%

3. Notice that these add up to 101.5361%. This is because of the vig. This number is known as the "overround".

4. Divide each of those first two calculated percentages by the overround.

4.7619/1.015361 = 4.69%
96.7742/1.015361 = 95.31%

Notice that these add up to 100%.

What these percentages represent is the percentages at which you would have equal EV betting on either side. Of course, the calculated EV will be negative (due to the vig), because that is how the market is theoretically supposed to work. In a perfectly efficient market, there is no +EV bet here. Each side here would have an EV of about -1.5%.

So here's the newest numbers:

Phi -22 95.3%
at Bal -20 (94%)
Pitt -15 89%
NYJ (-25) (96%)
Mia (-27.5) (96.5%)
at NYG -11 83%

Any number in paranthesis is just a guess by me.

These guesstimates result in NE being 61.3% to run the table. I know that the 16-0 prop was -138 and -125 respectively at WSEX and 5Dimes this afternoon. These have been bet down to -150 and -140. That's probably because an arb was available with Sportsbook.

I think NE is over 60% to win out at this point, but that assumes they don't suffer major injuries. I don't see any value in available lines now.

[CieloAzor]

Thanks and my apologies. My intuition told me to expect a number more towards the middle of that range, so I thought you were just using +1500 before. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[buckyb88]

You're crazy if you think they'll be 27.5 pt favorites against Miami when they wont have anything to play for except undefeated season. Miami will play that game tough too. It's not too often that you find a game where nothing but pure pride is on the line.. The Pats will have locked up home field adv, and the dolphins will have locked up the first overall pick of the draft. Literally the only thing they will be playing for is to prevent/save the undefeated season. This can't be a 27.5 pt spread

[Rustjive]

Shula's comments come to mind.