awkward spot with KK preflop

[willie24]

second round of a $50 multi on AP. 271 entrants.

mattkupe is an sng and HU sng specialist who has won the ap tlb multiple times. he doesnt play many multis , but he understands tournament poker at a high level. fearless/creative type.

foolishgolf is an outstanding multi player. online pro or semi-pro. intelligent TAG...conservative early.

Seat 9 - unknown ($1970 in chips)
Seat 1 - MATTKUPE ($1730 in chips)
Seat 2 - FOOLISHGOLF ($2730 in chips)
Seat 4 - hero ($1330 in chips)



blinds are 15/30.
2 folds
unknown mp1 calls
mattkupe raises to 75 from mp2.
1 fold
foolishgolf reraises to 240 from CO
hero has KK on the button

what are my options, and what are the approximate values (or pros and cons if you prefer) of each?

[homanga]

Call or Raise/Shove are your options. I am going to raise in this case, the stack sizes are awkward is the only problem. You can raise to 5-600 and shove any flop with little or no FE or shove and hope for a call. I am probably going to just shove this.

[jonnyd]

this really isnt the time to get cute. a shove is good here.

[willie24]

the problem i have with a push is that, when i am not called, i win 390. when i am called, i am usually losing.

i am willing to bet that foolishgolf will fold QQ and perhaps AK to my push given the circumstances. he will certainly fold JJ. the single most likely hand for him is AA. while he is less than 50% to have AA, im going to have trouble getting paid much from his non-aa hands

[jonnyd]

your calling range for foolishgolf is way too small

he likes his hand and you dont have him covered.

btw 390 at 15/30 is great.

[yNnOs]

I'd never flat call here giving odds galore to an "intelligent TAG". As mentioned, make it 600 and shove postflop. Also agree foolishgolf's calling range seems too tight to a shove. If he has QQ, I don't see how he puts you on AA/KK so easy.

[Dunkman]

[ QUOTE ]
the problem i have with a push is that, when i am not called, i win 390. when i am called, i am usually losing.

i am willing to bet that foolishgolf will fold QQ and perhaps AK to my push given the circumstances. he will certainly fold JJ. the single most likely hand for him is AA. while he is less than 50% to have AA, im going to have trouble getting paid much from his non-aa hands

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just wrong, shove, flat calling or making some tiny raise are both worse and even more obvious than shoving. I 3 bet from a guy 90 BBs deep does not mean AA, I'm sorry, it doesn't. I'm sure he's calling with QQ here, and he may speculate with JJ thinking your most likely hand is AK (since you'd do something cute if you had AA/KK.) So, just shove, let him put you on AK and call. And stop thinking someone has AA every time they 3bet, that's fish talk.

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how he puts you on AA/KK so easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. he knows me and knows that i am very tight early
2. he knows that i know that he is very tight early
3. he reraised a good player from middle position. he knows that i assume that he is extremely strong.
4. the pot size is a pittance. it is less than what the small blind will be on the bubble.


because of these, he knows that if i raise, i am never bluffing, and that i always think that i am stronger than his range (which i know to be very strong itself).

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
And stop thinking someone has AA every time they 3bet, that's fish talk.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think he has AA every time. i think it's his most likely hand and that's obvious. he probably has it about, oh, i dont know, 38% of the time.

[jonnyd]

38%? lol nice read.