PCA Bubble Question

[Inyaface]

This is a somewhat interesting spot that I've had a fair amount of discution about.

There are 181 people left in the PCA and top 180 pay.
Folded to you in the CO with 27k chips. Blinds 1200/2400/300. Button is a tightish internet player with about 30k chips, sb is Shannon Shorr with about 70k and BB is a good vegas tourney pro with about 200k. What is your push range here?

2nd part. Your on the button with 30kish chips. Tightish internet player shoves the CO. What is your call range?

[registrar]

Easy push for hero. I was going to say that button playing his first big buyin ranking tournament one from the money will have a super tight range AQo+ but, OTOH, you're not busting him here. If he thinks he's ahead of your pushing range (which is pairs and some smaller aces and some broadway cards), he can call, pray and hope someone else busts in the next seven hands if he loses.

[Fiksdal]

The thinking bigstack in the big blind should tighten up our range considerably here. He might get an idea of our range, and act accordingly. This is -EV for us if we move in too light.

[JoseGonzlez]

your range probably should be slightly tighter than a normal situation since the SB and the BB likely understand ranges and are probably not afraid to gamble.

However, you still would have to push any pair and A8 plus if you ask me.

[Mr.Poker]

This is a really good question.

My first thoughts is that there is an $11,000 bubble situation and the second is that the BB is a big stack who can easily afford to call an all in.

Im gona take the second question first and say that in terms of risk/reward and various ICM calculations, without actually doing them, I would estimate that the player on the button can only call correctly if he has AA.

However, pushing ranges can be wider than this. We know CO should not call us with anything less than AA (although I dont know how many players lay down KK), which means AQ is easily enough to push into his calling range.

The SB is a good tourney pro and probably knows that while you can push a wider range of hands than call, the big stack in the BB will likely reduce your pushing range significantly for fear of being called and busting out, and therefore, there calling range will be fairly tight. Considering this is for around half her stack as well, this reduces her calling range too.

The BB is where it is really interesting and difficult to answer this question confidently. The BB has a massive stack compared to Hero and can easily afford to call a push from Hero. The BB will know that Hero knows this, and therefore pushing onto his BB will show significant strength. However, unless you are only pushing a high pair, the BB can call with quite a wide range getting decent odds.

The problem is though, Im sure good tourney pros like to keep the bubble going as long as possible so it allows them to steal and resteal very aggressively and not get played back at nearly as much, which means he/she might fold more than we expect them to.

Mathematically im not certain what pushing ranges are correct here as it depends massively on the BB's calling range.

I would expect AQ is be right on the border but this is certainly a tough decision in any case.

[JoseGonzlez]

you cant fold AQ here

[Exitonly]

you gain 20% to your stack when you steal the blinds, BB is a little bit of a concern but i'm still pushing pretty much any pair, A8+ish, KQ, maybe KJs

and calling range for button, mmm i dunno, 88+ AQ+?

[Inyaface]

Jose, how low would you go with your range.
Also there is some merit to folding a hand as big as AQ here but it's prob -ev.
Also exitonly, I think your push range is way to loose but lets see what others think.

[registrar]

I'm more or less with Exitonly on the pushing ranges as I said. A10+, all pairs, some broadway by which I mean KQo and KJs.

In reality (and I've never had to test my nerve on a bubble like this), this range might shrink to 55+, AJ+, KQs.

[Pudge714]

I'd probably say something like AT 77 for the button's range probably AK 99