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#143
05-05-2005, 12:41 PM
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Re: DERB
[ QUOTE ]
thats 95% confidence right? Its very possible he is running 99th percentile-type good. [/ QUOTE ] It's possible he's running 99.9% percentile good. He could easily be the 1000:1 player that randomness has decided gets this variance; there have been 1000 players in the 30/60. This would have happened over and over in the history of poker. Doesn't even Mason have an article on this in Poker Essays? The facts are, he plays badly, he plays a high variance style, in a high variance game, which has been running for years. Sooner or later this post was going to be made about one LAG in the 30/60 and over the next 5 years i'd bet my bankroll on another one being made about another new LAG. 
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#144
05-05-2005, 12:42 PM
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Re: DERB
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] thats 95% confidence right? Its very possible he is running 99th percentile-type good. [/ QUOTE ] No it's not...it only slightly possible. It's much more likely he is a winning player. [/ QUOTE ] Not when you have expert knowledge that he doesn't play to a 3bb/100h. Say the S.D. comes out to say there's a 95% confidence that after these 100k hands he's at least a winning player. That's 5 people per 100 that aren't; 1/20 isn't rare. Even if it comes out 99% confidence he's a winning player; 1/100 isn't rare. FWIW, if we could some how arrange a bet to keep his play and game conditions the same i'd take some big even money bets that his stats will be negative bb/100h for a year from today's date.
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#145
05-05-2005, 12:58 PM
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Re: DERB
if this guy is a highly effective cheat making hundreds of thousands of dollars wouldnt he be changing his identity on a regular basis as part of a plan to avoid detection and possibly lose a lucrative income
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#146
05-05-2005, 01:01 PM
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Re: DERB
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] thats 95% confidence right? Its very possible he is running 99th percentile-type good. [/ QUOTE ] No it's not...it only slightly possible. It's much more likely he is a winning player. [/ QUOTE ] There are many, many LAGgy, aggressive players who multitable on partypoker. Over the course of a year, it is overwhelmingly likely that one of them would run extremely well. It is very possible that DERB is that one guy.
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#147
05-05-2005, 02:45 PM
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DERB Acts a fool
Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: is with , . Flop: (1.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(9 players)</font> SB checks, DERB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB calls, DERB calls. Turn: (2.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(9 players)</font> SB checks, DERB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB folds, DERB calls. River: (4.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">DERB bets</font>, Button calls. Final Pot: 6.25 BB Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF"> DERB has 6s Qs (one pair, queens). Button has Ks Jh (one pair, jacks). Outcome: DERB wins 6.25 BB. </font>
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#149
05-05-2005, 02:57 PM
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Re: DERB
The data is not lying, it's just misleading you. I'm sure you've played high plenty of times. So have I! I am not appealing to J_V's authority - I have logged 5 figures worth of hands against this player also and can tell you that the amount that he loses to decent players far exceeds the amount he wins from players that are overly tight(in terms of expectation and not results). Several players who have actually logged hands with this player are saying that he makes extremely fundamental mistakes but you are just saying "it's impossible for this player to just be running well!!!" You must concede that it is at least possible that someone could run this well while not playing a +EV style. That much seems obvious. And if it is possible - why can't this player be the one who is? 5 players have come forth who are big winners in this game and others saying that they are sure he is a loser, but you stand firm in your position in spite of never having logged a hand with him.
He is not just loose and aggressive, he is also a calling station. I played a hand with him where someone raised in EP, 2 cold called and he 3 bet AJo. I capped out of the SB. I bet every street and the final board was 94259. He overcalled the river. Are you saying that this is indicative of some higher level postflop strategy of which I am not aware? That same day he called 2 bets cold in his BB in a 3 way pot with QTo against a 3 bettor who only raised 10 percent of his hands and the original raiser who raises 12. Could even Ray Zee churn a profit with QTo in this scenario, much less someone who pays off in the most obvious laydown situations? The simple answer is no, of course not. But you can continue to spout of inane claims like "I know several people who win at high limits who play 1/3 of their hands." Cool, so let's see your log of their last 100,000 hands with these stats and we can start thinking that this is more than an anamoly. The simple fact is you can't provide this. You have some anecdotal evidence that is likely from live play - which means you don't even know how many hands they play or what they actually win or lose. I just have no clue how you can argue so vehemently about something with which you have no experience. -James
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