Hand vs Phil Gordon at New orleans 5k ME

[cking]

This is early on day 2, there are about 90 players out of a field of 350 or so players. Phil is a huge CL with 180k chips, i am in 11th place with 65k. Blinds are 800/1600 with a 300 chip ante. Phil sat at the table behind me yesterday and after rebuilding from almost nothing just ran his table over through very aggressive play and some big hands at the right times.

So anyway phil is 2 to my left and i raise from the button to 4500 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], the small blind folds, phil calls. Phil is a tight player who doesnt like playing out of position but also knows i can very well be on a steal here. Also no reason he should have any real reads on me other then im a young looking kid (21) however i am wearing my circuit ring for an event i won earlier in the series and assuming he notices that he should give me some credit as a decent player.

Anyway the flop is:

J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (pot ~12k)

Phil checks, you bet 6500 phil calls.

turn:

T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (pot ~ 25k)

phil checks, you...

[NHFunkii]

I'd prob check the flop alot, definitely check the turn though.

[curtains]

I would almost never check the flop beacuse we can happily get it allin against a raise. I see no reason to check the flop when the only thing that can be even mildly annoying is a check/call.

I think I'd check the turn too

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
I would almost never check the flop beacuse we can happily get it allin against a raise. I see no reason to check the flop when the only thing that can be even mildly annoying is a check/call.

I think I'd check the turn too

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree, i'd think abot checking some drier Q high flops, but this one there should be enough hands we're ahead of (maybe even way ahead of, like AJ/KQ) that play back.

[Ansky]

nah dont check the flop, but def check the turn.

[NoahSD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would almost never check the flop beacuse we can happily get it allin against a raise. I see no reason to check the flop when the only thing that can be even mildly annoying is a check/call.

I think I'd check the turn too

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree, i'd think abot checking some drier Q high flops, but this one there should be enough hands we're ahead of (maybe even way ahead of, like AJ/KQ) that play back.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well on dryer boards you've got different reasons to bet.

[VespaRally]

Being oop facing a button raise, I think he would repop you with QQ or JJ or AK pre most of the time, so we can assign a low probability to those hands.

I think if he had 44 or QJ then he probably would have check-raised you on the flop given the board texture and his position.

I think he is check-raising the flop with his strong hands (QJ,44) or big draws/nut flush draws (K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) to either:

a) put pressure on you since it is button vs. BB
b) negate his positional disadvantage

Your remaining stack size makes it pretty nice for him to c/r semi-bluff the flop with his big draws or to c/r the flop with his strong made hands in order to avoid a weird OOP/awkward stack size turn decision.

I think this leaves his other weak draws (weaker flush draws, weaker straight draws) or worse made hands (KQ or AJ) which makes up most of his range given this action, although KQ he might have c/r'd the flop with.

The T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] turn gives two-pair to QT or JT, his marginal peeling hands on the flop. I think we are still pretty well ahead of his range here though, esp. after he checks, although he might be checking his two-pair hands afraid of AK.

My inclination would be to check the turn in order to avoid a check-raise, keep the pot small, and induce a river bluff, but is there any merit to betting turn/checking river?

Given that we are probably ahead, we avoid giving a free card in a decent-sized pot, and he might find a peel with his weak drawing hands/weaker top pair hands some of the time, doesn't it seem worth consideration?

[cking]

Ok so i check behind on turn, river is:

3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Phil fiddles with his chips for awhile before checking, you...

[psyduck]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok so i check behind on turn, river is:

3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Phil fiddles with his chips for awhile before checking, you...

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems like an easy value bet hoping he calls with middle pair or a lower queen. He cannot go for a c/r with hands like two pair because the board is sufficiently scary and when you check the turn it looks very much like you've given the pot up (so why would he go for a river value c/r).

I would happily bet the river and expect to win 100% of the time.

[DarrenX]

seems like an easy check...??