good spot for semi-bluff bet?

hamnegger · #1 09-06-2007, 11:23 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP2 (t16202)
CO (t17090)
Hero (t12678)
SB (t11572)
BB (t8496)
UTG (t18629)
MP1 (t14147)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP1 calls t400, 2 folds, Hero calls t400, SB completes, BB checks. pot approx 1800

Flop: (t1550) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets t400, Hero calls t400, SB folds, BB calls t400. pot approx 3k

Turn: (t2750) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero ?

also comment on flop play if you want.

BarryLyndon · #2 09-07-2007, 12:44 AM

Reads on MP1? Can you raise here in position? QJ is a tough hand to play against 4 players, usually.

Yes, I bet 1800 on the turn. It's a perfect card to bluff with because BB could be calling with a T or and may fold a weak ace. Likewise, MP1 could be betting with J10, Q10, Ax, and may fold those hands thinking someone has to have the flush given the action. Even if either party doesn't fold a weak ace, you have lotsa outs and may get value if a non spade K or 8 pops up. And the pot is still small, so you aren't worried about committment issues.

The flop call is fine, I think. The problem with raising here, IMO, is that if MP1 calls and a rag hits or even a spade, I'm going to be a little worried about betting again. And, of course, I could get 4-bet, that's like 15% of my concern though. I'm not really worried about that.

I think the best way to maximize FE on a turn bluff is to simply play the flop with a call - I could be wrong about that. Interesting to see what others say about it, this is a weak part of my game.

donquay · #3 09-07-2007, 01:46 AM

what's' the buy in? I ask because the lower the stakes, the more an average villain gets overly scared by a board with 3 to a flush...because of that you can get away with maybe a 1/2 pot bet rather than 1800.

Anyways regardless of buy in, I bet turn for same reasons as stated by Barry.

As far as just calling the flop, I like it as long as the blinds aren't aggro/good enough to see that our and mp1's holdings are weak and/or drawing to a hand. One of blinds could c/r both of us off our hands.

I guess a case against not just calling flop bet in this case is the other villains (sb & bb) could actually be on the draw that hits on turn, they've made their hand when we're trying to use that as a scare card. On such a drawy flop, there's a good chance the turn card makes someone's draw and a simple call on flop gives an appearance of trying to hit that draw cheaply. Basically what I'm saying is that I agree just calling the flop can maximize FE when making a turn bluff against the right opponent. I think it comes down to the basic premise of telling a consistent story on all the streets so far...in this instance, would I flat call the flop if I had a big flush draw and then bet 1/2 pot (or 1800) for value on turn...but that's where the level of buy-in (and/or thinking) comes in, would I be so transparent as to just be calling with a FD and betting it because I made it on turn?

I don't know if what I wrote makes any sense at all, as I'm a little tired late into this long day. I don't know if I'm awake enough to re-read what I've written...for all I know, I make no sense at all.

hamnegger · #4 09-07-2007, 02:12 AM

i thought this was good card bc str8 draws may give up . i have a good draw a 10 must fold now. i bet barry's 1800 amount and both folded

JammyDodga · #5 09-07-2007, 05:21 AM

What flush draws are left out there which play like that pre-flop. Ace, queen and 9 are gone, leaves. KJ, K10, J10... thats only 3 specific hands, there's plenty of other hands out there that can't call a big bet on this turn.

That said, I think weak aces call here sometimes, so you may have to fire a second barrel on the river, are you happy to do that?

registrar · #6 09-07-2007, 05:48 AM

Not the best spot, no, because you have to hit to win (aces aren't folding) and when you do hit, you don't get paid unless it's a offsuit 8 or K. Also, getting check-raised is going to suck.

BarryLyndon · #7 09-07-2007, 10:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Not the best spot, no, because you have to hit to win (aces aren't folding) and when you do hit, you don't get paid unless it's a offsuit 8 or K. Also, getting check-raised is going to suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Registrar,

We're deep, he has outs, and I seriously doubt you are getting CRed here a significant percent of the time to offset FE. If there is one thing a weak player (and judging from the action, both players are weak) fear the most is made flushes. They aren't going to think "Well, he has a lone Qs or Ks," because it's going to be hard to think that given the action.

Also, if your opponent isn't going to fold an ace on the turn, then he probably isn't going to fold it to a value bet on the river, so you have implied odds.

Barry

JammyDodga · #8 09-07-2007, 11:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Not the best spot, no, because you have to hit to win (aces aren't folding) and when you do hit, you don't get paid unless it's a offsuit 8 or K. Also, getting check-raised is going to suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you are right. I get into trouble giving people too much credit for the abilty to lay-down a weak ace even on scary boards.

registrar · #9 09-07-2007, 11:08 AM

Yeah, but he will fold the ace on a four flush board.

I think getting check-raised by a made flush is quite likely here.

Don't get me wrong, I'd probably bet here because I think, when in doubt, we should always get chips in the middle, but it's not ideal and I think we're unlikely to fold out both unless both have KT or 78.