live 6/12, AKs CO

[mntndrew]

Hopefully this question isn't too mundane, but maybe it is and I'm just not used to seeing actual aggressive players.

First hand of a new game, 3 limpers, Hero raises A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the CO. BB calls, 5 players go to the flop.

Flop [9.5 SB]: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB bets, one call, one fold, HJ raises. BB counts out chips for a call.

My hand's worth, what, 5 outs? Is this an easy fold getting better than 6:1 and likely 7:1?

[James.]

2 overs, a bd straight draw and a bd flush draw to the nuts. definitely worth sticking around.

i usually 3bet if it'll get me a free ride to the river.

[somapopper]

In general, I'd say you want to throw AK away in this sort of spot.

But since you seem pretty confidant that the BB is going to call (not raise), it's not likely anybody made 2 pair, and you've got the backdoor nut flush, I'd at least consider taking one off here.

However it'd be much easier to peel if you knew how passive the HJ is preflop. If he wouldn't have raised KQ, or AQ (less likely obv.) before the flop, that makes it a pretty easy fold.

[Hyperrrprank]

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However it'd be much easier to peel if you knew how passive the HJ is preflop. If he wouldn't have raised KQ, or AQ (less likely obv.) before the flop, that makes it a pretty easy fold.

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Your backdoor outs add quite a bit, about 3 outs collectively, but I agree with somapopper here that we really don't want to count our A and K outs as full outs if there's a good chance we will make our pair when someone else makes 2 pair.

Proceed but with caution.

[James.]

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we really don't want to count our A and K outs as full outs if there's a good chance we will make our pair when someone else makes 2 pair.

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while i agree with this in regards to the ace outs, most typically aggressive opponents would raise KQ pf. and while it's certainly possible they're playing Ace-rag, it's far less often you see a hand like K6. for that reason i'm giving us one out for our ace and probably 2 outs for our King. 1 out for the straight and 1.5 for the bd nut fd. so that's 1+2+1+1.5 for about 5.5 outs by my estimation.

[shane88888]

I also like our bd draws because if we hit one of them, we are likely to get some crazy action on the river.

[mntndrew]

All right, I guess this is one where the math throws me. If I have a flush draw, I know I'm 2:1 to make it and can pump it against more than two opponents because I'm going to have odds to call on the turn. If I have just a gutshot, I'm around 11:1 to hit on the turn, but I can peel with a little less because of the implied odds on later streets if I hit.

In this case, my pot equity is somewhere north of 20% to make a winner by the river, making me around a 4.5:1 dog. But really, although an ace or a king may help me pull ahead, a lot of this equity comes from the backdoor draws. So should I be saying that it'll usually cost me 2 BB's to see the river (assuming I cold call two and it costs me one on the turn if I pick up a draw, although I did consider 3-banging as James suggested), so I want to be sure that my final pot will be greater 4.5*2 = 9 BB's? How large do you want your pot odds to be when so much of your equity comes from backdoor draws?

[SNOWBALL]

fold. Your hand is gross, and and it might get 3 bet behind you.

[SNOWBALL]

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2 overs, a bd straight draw and a bd flush draw to the nuts. definitely worth sticking around.

i usually 3bet if it'll get me a free ride to the river.


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This is live 6/12, which means we have to give BB donkers, and HJ flop raisers more credit than usual. Also, the pot is smaller than it appears because of the brutal drop+tipping if you win the hand

[mntndrew]

FWIW, drop/tip are included in pot size in OP. So anyway, marginal decision I guess?