Stars 33/5K It's Hard to Fold an Overpair...

erc007 · #1 10-21-2007, 03:09 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button (t3005)
SB (t4430)
BB (t4520)
UTG (t4775)
UTG+1 (t5740)
MP1 (t6805)
Hero (t2635)
MP3 (t4805)
CO (t2630)

Villain isn't very good, but he's been playing pretty tight. The only other pot that i've played with him, he open-raised from MP1, i called with 66, and he check-folded when i bet 275 (into a pot of 425) on a 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] flop.

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises to t150, Hero calls t150, 5 folds.

Flop: (t375) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets t300, Hero calls t300.

Turn: (t975) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets t6355 (All-In), Hero...?

swede554 · #2 10-21-2007, 05:29 AM

These spots are so stupid because there are really no hands he should be doing this with, so it's hard to put him on anything here. He's not really betting 6355 on the turn, he's actually betting about 2150, which is alil more than 2x the pot. He's either putting you on some sort of draw and could be jamming AA-JJ, but you would think the fourcard straight would scare him. He could have a FD, with two overs and is jamming to maximize FE. A set is possible too. 55 or A5s are possibilites and he's overbetting to make you think he's bluffing, something I see from time to time.

All that probably didn't help to much, but most of the time I don't think we're in good shape here, so if I get to the turn this way I think I'm folding.

BarryLyndon · #3 10-21-2007, 06:24 AM

When you called on the flop, you must have been doing it as a defensive value call with hopes of villain slowing down or making a smaller bet. You did it because if you RR, he's only calling with hands which beat you (I assume) + the blinds are too big to commit yourself at this point. If you think that villain is bad and he gets it in with 88/99, then you should RR. You don't think that.

The biggest counterargument to me here is his big stack. But he's been playing very tight, right? And he has to think that you don't have 55 or a set too, right?

Therefore, you need to fold the turn because at this point, the only hand that you are beating is 99 / AdKd. 55 got there, and that is a perfectly legit hand to play that way and then push in fear for a flush. All sets got there. It's true that you could signfiicantly weigh in a flush with overs (while weighing a couple of hands that beat you less, if you want), but if that is the case, then you still taking a marginal gamble.

Overall, this bet on the turn sucks, but I still think it's a fold with your read and your decision on the flop* (*I think this is one of those situations where the reasoning on your decision on the flop easily extends over to the turn).

Barry

Stumpy · #4 10-21-2007, 02:09 PM

Keep in mind he's only really betting 2x the pot, because Hero only has about 2.2k behind.

That makes this bet much more reasonable, because if he thinks he has the best hand, he's not going to bet fold and there are a lot of draws out there.

You need 40% equity to call. I don't think you quite have it, but I'd call with JJ.

Pokerfarian · #5 10-21-2007, 06:50 PM

This is super close imo. I'm kind've tempted to completely disagree with above poster & advocate calling with TT & folding JJ because it's so close and the 2nd belly buster straight draw might give you enough equity to turn it into a call. Super tricky spot, overpair + redraws is just about enough I think to call.

kenny7 · #6 10-21-2007, 07:46 PM

I can't really see anything but a fold here.You are not beating much,and you say he's been playing tight. I don't see why you wouldn't raise the flop here tho unless you are taking Barry's line,which is just fine. But if you are,then I definately can't see how you can do anything but fold here.

Stumpy · #7 10-22-2007, 01:29 AM

Pokerfarian,

I ran this against 99+,AdQd+.

JJ is 39.5%, TT is 34.5%.

I don't think my range is particularly accurate, but 99+ is certainly in his range.
Being up against 18 overpairs (JJ) instead of 24 (TT) is pretty huge, and outweighs having a gutshot with one card to go.

If you think sets are a big part of his range, you need to fold, because you're not anywhere near the needed equity then.