3/6 FLO8 trips yukky

[shat4brains]

Full Tilt Poker Game #4155749251: Table Ventana - $3/$6 - Limit Omaha H/L - 19:36:10 ET - 2007/11/12
Seat 1: Tavare ($149.50)
Seat 2: gotanyjacks ($248.50)
Seat 3: Boterbloem ($3,365.50)
Seat 4: WelshViking ($283)
Seat 5: parrisimo ($84)
Seat 6: JeffDowder ($80)
Seat 7: Chelsea Mutt ($17.50)
Seat 8: mmm_tacobell ($150)
Seat 9: OompaAPD ($149)
Chelsea Mutt posts the small blind of $1.50
mmm_tacobell has 5 seconds left to act
mmm_tacobell posts the big blind of $3
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mmm_tacobell [Kd 8h Qh Ac]
OompaAPD folds
Tavare folds
gotanyjacks calls $3
Boterbloem calls $3
WelshViking folds
parrisimo has 15 seconds left to act
parrisimo folds
JeffDowder folds
Chelsea Mutt calls $1.50
mmm_tacobell checks
*** FLOP *** [5s As Ah]
Chelsea Mutt checks
mmm_tacobell bets $3
gotanyjacks folds
Boterbloem raises to $6
Chelsea Mutt adds $60
Chelsea Mutt folds
mmm_tacobell calls $3
*** TURN *** [5s As Ah] [Ts]
mmm_tacobell checks
Boterbloem bets $6
mmm_tacobell calls $6
*** RIVER *** [5s As Ah Ts] [8c]
mmm_tacobell checks
Boterbloem bets $6
mmm_tacobell raises to $12
Boterbloem calls $6
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mmm_tacobell shows [Kd 8h Qh Ac] a full house, Aces full of Eights, for high
Boterbloem shows [3c 5h 6h Ad] a full house, Aces full of Fives, for high and 8,6,5,3,A, for low
mmm_tacobell wins the high pot ($28.50) with a full house, Aces full of Eights
Boterbloem wins the low pot ($28.50) with 8,6,5,3,A
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $60 | Rake $3
Board: [5s As Ah Ts 8c]
Seat 1: Tavare didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: gotanyjacks folded on the Flop
Seat 3: Boterbloem showed [3c 5h 6h Ad] and won ($28.50) with HI: a full house, Aces full of Fives; LO: 8,6,5,3,A
Seat 4: WelshViking didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: parrisimo didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: JeffDowder (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: Chelsea Mutt (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 8: mmm_tacobell (big blind) showed [Kd 8h Qh Ac] and won ($28.50) with HI: a full house, Aces full of Eights
Seat 9: OompaAPD didn't bet (folded)




standard?

[Buzz]

Hi shat4brains - Your starting hand is not very good, but you get to see the flop from the big blind for no added expense. Seems right to me.

Four of you to the flop. Kind of a lean game, but not without a little fat, although just looking at one hand, that's jumping to conclusions.

And then you flop trip aces with a king kicker. And you bet. Seems right to me.

But Boterbloem raises. So you suspect perhaps Boterbloem has flopped even better than you. What could be better? A variety of hands.<ul type="square">A2KZ with spades
A3KZ with spades
A4KZ with spades
A5YZ with spades
A6KZ with spades
A7KZ with spades
2355 with spades
etc.
and all of the above without spades.
I don't mean this to be an exhaustive list.[/list]Could Boterbloem have one of those hands? Sure. On the other hand maybe he doesn't have one of those hands. Maybe he simply has trip aces with a worse kicker. It's a very reasonable raise for Boterbloem with trip aces and a worse kicker.

You can't tell exactly, and so you call. Fine. Thinking only about this hand, that may be better than you making a re-raise. It's close because you can possibly get more information about Boterbloem's hand with a re-raise. (Presume that he's more likely to re-raise with a better hand than you than with a worse hand - but that may not be true either).

You're getting 7 to 1 immediate pot odds to call the raise, but assuming you check/call on the next two betting rounds, both of you will put another two big bets into the pot. So you're really getting 11 to 5 reverse implied whole pot odds, or about 2.2 to 1. But you have to wonder if Villain doesn't have a better chance at low than you, and if so, you're only playing for half the pot. Your reverse implied whole pot odds for half the pot are 3 to 5 or 0.6 to 1.

(There are some other possibilities so that those are both slight simplifications).

If Villain does have A5YZ, you have nine outs (kings, queens, and eights) and there are
52-4-3-2-9=34 bricks. So the probability of catching one of your outs on the turn or river is
1-C(34,2)/C(43,2)=0.379.

So the odds against catching one of your outs on the turn or river are
621/379=1.64/1 or 1.64 to 1.

Thus considering the amount already in the pot, your whole pot odds are greater than the odds against making your draw, and if you were playing the straight high game, that's called having favorable odds to draw.

But also considering the amount already in the pot, your half pot odds are less than the odds against making your draw, and that's called having unfavorable odds to draw.

Thus if Villain truly has A5YZ, or 5532, (or 5542, etc.) then you have unfavorable odds to continue drawing for just half the pot.

So after the math, it boils down to the question of whether Villain actually does have one of those better hands than you or not. And the truth is, it's damned hard to know.

At any rate, you cross your fingers and call the raise, planning to call it down or maybe bet yourself if you make your draw. And then you get lucky on the river. But now there's a ten on the board so that Villain could have ATYZ for a winner or A8YZ for a possible 3/4. And so once more, you check/call. Fine.

Was that what you were thinking too?

Buzz