Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?

skitzo444 · #1 07-26-2007, 03:38 PM

I have been reading about precision shooting and talking to an old friend who is a serious craps player (Full table in his basement) He says that by setting the dice and holding it a certain way you can change the probability of dice by going through a consistent motion.

In theory I can see how this would work but doesn't the deflection on the craps layout and walls randomize any attempt at setting the dice?

jh12547 · #2 07-27-2007, 07:31 AM

Its all superstition if you ask me. Some like to shoot standing next to stick others next to base dealer. Its all luck no matter what he/she does with the dice. Those same people are the ones who will blame anyone that says " 7 " when theres a point and they out 7 or blame the dealer if the dice flip onto a seven and they out 7 as well. Its all luck, the only skill maybe betting patterns you use but even then its tough.

Edit : Betting pattern i see a lot of regulars play is 1 pass line bet and 2 come bets all with max odds. At least they are the ones who have stuck around with the same bankroll over the years.

bpb · #3 07-27-2007, 11:36 AM

jh12547,

Your post is useless and off topic. Betting patterns are worthless, and having nothing to do with dice control.

Re: dice control ... the following is a POTM from the green chip boards at BJ21.com from 2006.

Posted By: DD' on 5 Mar 06, 9:09 pm

After investing quite a lot of time and a good bit of money in lessons, equipment, etc, I have decided to all but quit craps. While I had a good bit of success the first few months, actually winning over $100,000, I subsequently lost it all back and believe that my good fortune was nothing more than variance. I have met and shot with many who consider themselves to be skilled shooters. I have not been impressed with anyone and have yet to see anyone I consider to be a serious advantage player betting real money. The only people I see claiming that they do well are those selling books, equipment, and seminars.

Now, I am not saying that I do not believe that some small level of influence is possible or that it is not possible to obtain a small edge under some very narrow set of conditions. But I do not believe it is viable as a serious revenue generator. If anyone should see me at the tables in Vegas please don't jump in betting money even if it looks like I'm betting a good bit. I consider some tables to give me around zero ev and will play them on occasion if I have extra value added, such as RFB, airfare, cash coupons, free tournament entries, etc. I have a sufficient bankroll that I can afford to do this as a comp hustle on a limited basis. But my team is no longer financing or interested in craps what so ever. I now look at it the same way as video poker players who play games close to zero ev and them come out slightly ahead when adding in various extra value things they get from the casino.

I am not posting this to get into a debate with anyone. But I do know that others, as I do, look at what other serious advantage players are involved in something as a guide as to whether they will invest time and money in something. I do not wish the fact that it is known that I have spent some time with this to influence anyone in a positive way. The amount of time and money it will take to get anywhere with this, which I'm not sure is even possible, I believe would be much better spent sharpening skills at any other type of advantage play.

skitzo444 · #4 07-27-2007, 01:06 PM

How does a casino rate your craps play? If you bet 10 dollars on the pass line and then back it up with $20 in odds do they calculate your bet at $10 or $30? Also what if you were betting on come and don't come at the same time, but one w/ odds. Would they consider it a $20 bet or $0 cause they essentially cancel each other out?

jh12547 · #5 07-27-2007, 04:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
jh12547,

Your post is useless and off topic. Betting patterns are worthless, and having nothing to do with dice control.

Re: dice control ... the following is a POTM from the green chip boards at BJ21.com from 2006.

Posted By: DD' on 5 Mar 06, 9:09 pm

After investing quite a lot of time and a good bit of money in lessons, equipment, etc, I have decided to all but quit craps. While I had a good bit of success the first few months, actually winning over $100,000, I subsequently lost it all back and believe that my good fortune was nothing more than variance. I have met and shot with many who consider themselves to be skilled shooters. I have not been impressed with anyone and have yet to see anyone I consider to be a serious advantage player betting real money. The only people I see claiming that they do well are those selling books, equipment, and seminars.

Now, I am not saying that I do not believe that some small level of influence is possible or that it is not possible to obtain a small edge under some very narrow set of conditions. But I do not believe it is viable as a serious revenue generator. If anyone should see me at the tables in Vegas please don't jump in betting money even if it looks like I'm betting a good bit. I consider some tables to give me around zero ev and will play them on occasion if I have extra value added, such as RFB, airfare, cash coupons, free tournament entries, etc. I have a sufficient bankroll that I can afford to do this as a comp hustle on a limited basis. But my team is no longer financing or interested in craps what so ever. I now look at it the same way as video poker players who play games close to zero ev and them come out slightly ahead when adding in various extra value things they get from the casino.

I am not posting this to get into a debate with anyone. But I do know that others, as I do, look at what other serious advantage players are involved in something as a guide as to whether they will invest time and money in something. I do not wish the fact that it is known that I have spent some time with this to influence anyone in a positive way. The amount of time and money it will take to get anywhere with this, which I'm not sure is even possible, I believe would be much better spent sharpening skills at any other type of advantage play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry if you didnt quite get it. My point was there is no skill in craps even for someone setting the dice and throwing them the same way everytime. I was just trying to point that out and what i thought that the only skill MIGHT be betting patterns. Next time i will just do the same as you and repost someone elses words who was basically saying the same as what i did anyhow. No skill its all variance. Ill try to explain it in english next time dummy!

jh12547 · #6 07-27-2007, 04:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How does a casino rate your craps play? If you bet 10 dollars on the pass line and then back it up with $20 in odds do they calculate your bet at $10 or $30? Also what if you were betting on come and don't come at the same time, but one w/ odds. Would they consider it a $20 bet or $0 cause they essentially cancel each other out?

[/ QUOTE ]

At least where i work for question 1 youd get a 10$ average. Odds or on either pass bets or come bets never count towards your rate. For question 2 if you had 10 on each come/dont come or pass/dont pass you are rated at 20$.

SheetWise · #7 07-28-2007, 10:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I was just trying to point that out and what i thought that the only skill MIGHT be betting patterns. Next time i will just do the same as you and repost someone elses words who was basically saying the same as what i did anyhow. No skill its all variance. Ill try to explain it in english next time dummy!

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be interested in your theory of how betting patterns represent skill -- using either your words or somebody elses.

bpb · #8 07-28-2007, 10:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Sorry if you didnt quite get it. My point was there is no skill in craps even for someone setting the dice and throwing them the same way everytime. I was just trying to point that out and what i thought that the only skill MIGHT be betting patterns. Next time i will just do the same as you and repost someone elses words who was basically saying the same as what i did anyhow. No skill its all variance. Ill try to explain it in english next time dummy!

[/ QUOTE ]

Your post remains useless and off topic. Please try harder to contribute something useful.

CORed · #9 07-28-2007, 12:25 PM

It's been several years since I spent much time on blackjack boards, but I would like to point out that DD' is one of the best posters, with a solid grasp of theory and many years of practical experience at advantage play. If he says that dice control in craps is not a viable advantage play strategy, I believe it.

jh12547 · #10 07-28-2007, 06:03 PM

BPB

What dont you get. Im still trying to figure out what useful info you posted. The OP asked the question of setting the dice or precision shooting. I said it doesnt matter what anyone does with the dice before they shoot. Its all variance and Luck. No skill involved whatsoever. All I said was the same thing that you copied from DD's post but I said it in less words.
My point for the betting patterns is the players Ive seen over the years that actually dont go broke are the ones that stick to the same common betting pattern. Which IMO and I quote "IMO" is a passline bet and 2 come bets with full odds.
I am definitely no expert but I do have 10,000+ hours of either dealing or flooring craps over the years so i speaking from what ive seen. That is all.