Set over set

[Mike Kelley]

Check out the high stakes thread. Some guy is agonizing over it up there with a 300 bb stack and some of those guys seem to seriously be considering mucking it.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...;gonew=1#UNREAD

[CalledDownLight]

Only play 33 for quad value. Why would you felt a flop like this. Its pretty stupid, you need KK to get allin here otherwise its a c/f. Looks like all of you guys in this thread need to check out this link and start applying it to your game. Its actually not -EV to fold bottom set and in reality is the only way to play it if you want to maximize your edge, but go ahead and keep lighting money on fire and felting bottom set. Also, in OP's example the odds vilian has a higher set are 100% so all we have to do is analyze how often we suck out.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...part=1&vc=1

[myheadhurts]

Some people have really weird ideas of the probabilities of set over set.

So: Here's a theoretical situation. You have 22. Your opponent has a higher pair, and you flop a set.

How often does he:
(a) Have a higher set on the flop
(b) Have a higher set by the river if he stays in.

I'll post the answer later. Most people will know roughly, I'm sure, but the answer might surprise some.

[bottomset]

overpairs have around 16-20% equity on 2xxxx boards

[myheadhurts]

[ QUOTE ]
overpairs have around 16-20% equity on 2xxxx boards

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I was trying to create suspense to shock the non-believers more [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

But yeah, if he has a higher pair than you then your set is only good five times in six.

[GiantBuddha]

[ QUOTE ]
Only play 33 for quad value.

[/ QUOTE ]

But watch out for the overquads if the board double pairs. It's hard to get stacked in this spot, though, because your opponent will often try to outslowplay you.

[Renton]

http://www.pokerhand.org/?770937

[AceOfClubs]

[ QUOTE ]
But watch out for the overquads if the board double pairs.

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[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Das Budrick]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Set over set is a cooler in this situation.
Villain will have all sorts of two pair hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
He had set.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha

[seki]

[ QUOTE ]
http://www.pokerhand.org/?770937

[/ QUOTE ]

oops! What did you break afterwords?