Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?

[doormat]

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What is your take on Wong On Dice? I'm not writing this to be provocative but I know there has been a bit of controversey surrounding his book. At the same time he is respected for his knowledge of advantage play.

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I had a conversation with Wong at a dinner last year about his craps system. I played blackjack professionally for years and always had great respect for the man until that point. It was obvious that he was either fooling himself, or more likely fooling others for profit. He was trying to argue that there was a small edge based on a sample size that didn't come close to justifying it.

[coyote]

Wow, bpb and giftgiver really came out of nowhere to be d*cks in this thread.

[onlinebeginner]

LOL JH

[govman6767]

Mathmatically speaking and Physics speaking With enough training and force and practice I could punch through the side of a U.S. Aircraft Carrier.

Does not mean anyone on earth can do it.

[SheetWise]

Echoing Govman -- I've said before, and I'll say again ...

I've seen some amazing things in my life. I've seen close up magic and card manipulation done right in front of my face -- I knew what they were doing -- and I still couldn't see it being done. There are some phenomenal technicians in the world of gaming and sleight-of-hand. Many of these "tricks" take years to perfect, and are so perfectly executed that it's nearly incomprehensible.

So, understand, I do not doubt that the skill could be learned. That is, if the dice hit the rubber below the diamond pattern. Otherwise, I think it's impossible.

The many years I've spent inside, outside, above, and around gaming tables tells me that game doesn't exist for more than a few rolls.

It would be very easy for any proponent of dice setting to prove. Simply explain how the dice are going to be manipulated, video the throw in slow motion, and show that there is a correlation between the predicted motion of the dice and the actual motion of the dice.

Not a prediction of a win followed by a win. This really isn't that difficult to prove -- either the dice behave as predicted, or they behave randomly.

[Bazzito52]

I'm a newcomer to this board, but I'll put on my flameproof suit and offer a modest reply.

I am a long-time crapshooter and have read just about every book written on craps. I've read all of Scoblette's books, as well as Wong's volume. I'm always interested in anything that will help "get the edge" in a crap game, so I try to keep up with the latest in theories concerning the game. I've meant to attend a "controlled shooting" seminar, but just haven't been able to find the time or justify the expense.

Despite all of the claims of controlled shooting advocates, I believe they are unlikely at least two reasons. First, the seminars are frequently held on casino properties and, so far, the casinos have instituted no countermeasures against dice setters or controlled shooters.

Regarding the first point, you don't see outfits staging any blackjack card counting seminars at any casinos do you? If the casinos thought that controlled shooters could get even a small edge, they'd be banning crapshooters with regularity, NOT hosting classes in how to bust their chops. Now, you'll see the claim, "My methods are so effective that I've been banned from Las Vegas casinos." in some promotional materials. This might be true, but what they won't tell you is that, "I was such an obnoxious, abusive drunk that I've been kicked out of numerous joints even though no crapshooter in Nevada history has ever been banned for being an 'advantage player'." If the hotels host the seminars and don't ban them from playing, how effective do you think their methods can be?

Secondly, I have only seen one crap table in Las Vegas with any sort of device to stop a gaffed or controlled shot. I remember one place had a metal ridge running through the middle of the table (across the hardway bets on the layout) to stop a "blanket roll"), but other than that…nothing that I've noticed. If the casinos were experiencing a drop in the win don't you think that by now they have done something like change the makeup of the surface behind the pass line at the ends of the table to stop the "killing" of the dice after hitting the wall? Or how about installing bumpers of platforms of different heights at the ends of the table so the dice take another tumble after hitting the wall. Or how about making the players use dice cups? You do that in a Yahtzee game in your kitchen! Don't you think that the casinos would do that if they thought their bankroll was in jeopardy?

When I see the casinos change the craps table and procedures in even a fraction of the ways that they've done for blackjack, then I'll be a believer.

Until then, I'll take the word of Sam Grafstein, who wrote the very best book ever concerning the game 21 years ago The Dice Doctor, Revised & Expanded when he says, "Just roll the dice 20 inches. Give me ONE BOUNCE, and I'll personally book your bets all day." Granted Sam passed away before the advent of today's "controlled shooters," but absent any evidence to the contrary, I believe that he's still correct.

[SamIAm]

I know it's circumstantial, but remember that Thorp held his book-signings in casinos, and nobody doubts that blackjack can actually be advantage play. Casinos also continue to spread blackjack, even though there are some positive players out there.

Of course the countermeasures are weaker at craps than blackjack, but that could simply be the ease of learning to count vs learning to dice set.

Just because there are (at most) very few +EV dice-setters doesn't mean there aren't any. (And that's why we argue about this all the time on this board. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

[AceOfClubs]

I know guys who doing this and doing well.

[rubixxcube]

IMO i don't think its easy to do it well enough to get an advantage, however i don't think it's Impossible, just unlikely.

http://crapspit.proboards25.com/index.cgi?board=setting

Check out that link for all theories both ways on whether dice setting really works.

laslty on the whole thing about hosting gambling signings and classes at casinos. They are actually good for casinos whether they work correctly or not.
The reason being that probably over 90% of the people who try these things don't take the time to learn everything and rush into it and do it incorrectly that they more than make up for the people who do it so well that they win a little bit.

i can't find a link to it but on a special i saw on thorp they said that due to his book release the number of black jack players sky rocketed in the casinos as it helped increase the populairty of blackjack. Many novice counters applied his theories incorrectly and gained no advantage of the casino and simply lost money they would not have if they hadn't read his book.

[FireGirl]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a newcomer to this board, but I'll put on my flameproof suit and offer a modest reply...
If the casinos were experiencing a drop in the win don't you think that by now they have done something like change the makeup of the surface behind the pass line at the ends of the table to stop the "killing" of the dice after hitting the wall?

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Also a newcomer here - and a dice setting believer. My observation is that more and more casinos are resurfacing their tables to add more cushion, making it more difficult for controlled shooters to "drop" the dice off the back wall.