Good result-orienting.

Slava_sky · #1 05-08-2007, 04:50 PM

Result-orienting is bad in poker.

But if you still have it - use it in good way. Make your bet successfull or unsuccessful depending on the combinations you and you opponent had on the street you made good or bad bet. And the bet is good if you had better hand, than opp and he had less than 50% chance of improving. Otherwise - the bet was bad. What happened on the river(if the bet was made on earlier street) - nobody cares.

Poker Plan · #2 05-08-2007, 05:04 PM

Nowhere in your post do you mention the pot size or the odds that the pot is laying you.

Without that info' there is categorically no way to determine whether a bet is good or bad.

sebbb · #3 05-08-2007, 06:04 PM

As Poker Plan said, you have to look at the odds you have... 50% is rarely the right number. Sometimes it is good to call an allin bet with only 30% chance of winning...

Also you have to think of terms of ranges. If you call an allin preflop with KK, you did not necessarily made a bad play even if villain had AA. For example, villains range might be AA,KK,QQ,AK.

Slava_sky · #4 05-10-2007, 05:49 PM

Well, I was talking mainly about HU situations, that's why 50%. Of course in multiway pot you may have other numbers, but usually people don't complain, if they had EV+ in multiway pot and their flush didn't come.

sebbb · #5 05-10-2007, 06:00 PM

50% is still wrong heads up.

If the pot size is $10 on the flop and villain goes allin for $5 more, you only need to win 25% of the time to call and break even.

Slava_sky · #6 05-10-2007, 06:28 PM

The situations you are talking about are exceptions. I am talking about generalities. That may help in the decision making for beginners, when there are really a lot of things to take into account. It assumes that they know about pot odds and etc.

karlwig · #7 05-10-2007, 08:25 PM

I don't get this.

I'll call/bet even if I'm only 10% favourite. I just have to make sure I have/get the right odds from the pot.

I can't see how the 50%-strategy really fits into the game of poker. It's not about being ahead or behind at all. It's about making the moves that will most likely make you money in the long run.

Did I get your post wrong? Could you explain futher?

You're saying this is a good way to think for beginners.

I'd say it's a way of thinking that really will get any beginner busted, or at least, mess up his mind at how to think about the game.

JH1 · #8 05-10-2007, 10:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get this.

I'll call/bet even if I'm only 10% favourite. I just have to make sure I have/get the right odds from the pot.

I can't see how the 50%-strategy really fits into the game of poker. It's not about being ahead or behind at all. It's about making the moves that will most likely make you money in the long run.

Did I get your post wrong? Could you explain futher?

You're saying this is a good way to think for beginners.

I'd say it's a way of thinking that really will get any beginner busted, or at least, mess up his mind at how to think about the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

No kidding, you're 50% if both you and villain agree to push any two cards a million times. Otherwise this theory makes no sense. The first thing beginners should learn are pot odds, so we shouldn't have to assume that they don't know about them. If they don't, all the better for me! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

sebbb · #9 05-10-2007, 10:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The situations you are talking about are exceptions. I am talking about generalities. That may help in the decision making for beginners, when there are really a lot of things to take into account. It assumes that they know about pot odds and etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your 50% rule is the exception, not the generality. I don't think there are many hands where 50% is the right number.

But you have something right in your post. It is better to look at how much equity you have against your opponent on the street on which you went allin, than to look at if you won or not. But 50% is not the magic number.

Poker Plan · #10 05-11-2007, 03:58 AM

There is NO magic % number.

It doesn't matter if its 2% or 90% """IF""" you don't compare it to you risk versus reward ratio.

Here's an question for you:-
Both scenarios- you will be all if you make the call- ie no more bets will be made. There is only one card to come.

Scenario 1:
You have a 2.2% chance of winning the hand. The pot including my bet is 46 bets. You need to call 1 bet.

Scenario 2:
You have a 30.4% chance of winning the hand. The pot including my bet is 2 bets. You need to call 1 bet.

So in (1) you have a 2.2% chance, in (2) you have a 30.4% chance.

You have pick either scenario (1) or (2). Whichever you pick, we will play the with the same odds, a million times. Which one do you want to play?

Surely you'll pick (2) because you have a MUCH better chance of winning????????

Your (ie anyone's) understanding of this question and the correct answer is the fudamental basis of winning poker (or the long term gain from any gambling activity for that matter)