I Follow Him to Serve My Turn Upon Him

[Foucault]

Level 2 of EPT Barcelona, blinds 50/100. I have a pretty tight image.

A shortish stack (~3000) open limps in MP, CO (~17000) limps, I limp A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the button (~9000), SB (~15000) completes, BB (~10000) checks.

Flop is J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Checks to me, and I bet 450 into pot of 600. BB calls, everyone else folds.

Turn 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. BB leads out for 1100 into pot of 1500. Hero?

[runout_mick]

I raise to 3k and hope he pushes.

[FortunaMaximus]

Thinks for awhile. Then calls.

Raising is fine too, but, really, you shouldn't expect a 3-bet push here with your image.

[0evg0]

I don't see how this could be anything other than a lower flush like 90% of the time.

That being said, I think you need to raise here as there are a ton of river cards that kill most of your action.

I think you know this, but I'm just throwing that out there. The real question is the optimal raise size. I think raising to like 2800 total would be my standard. Partially because I think he could fold a low flush to a push (and if he doesn't fold to the push on the turn, we're getting his stack like 3/4 of the time on the river anyway), this way he may call turn and fold river (at least the chances of this are non-zero) on occassion, and finally this could be something like KhJx like 10% of the time and he's hoping to block you into giving him a river heart.

[runout_mick]

[ QUOTE ]
Thinks for awhile. Then calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

We can't let him boat up for free here. He still might push his set or smaller flush, leading the flop did well to disguise our hand.

[registrar]

Is there a wrong thing to do here? It really depends what you put him on and what he thinks you have.

I quite like a push here, because he'll put you on naked A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. He calls with sets, str8s draw/hearts and two pair and the river can't scare him off. He surely never folds a made flush here?

I also like a min-raise, if you think that he's going to see this as you giving yourself and exit strategy.

I don't generally like a call.

[AceLuby]

I don't mind a call here, but there are as evg has said, a ton of cards that kill your action / possibly beat you (~6-8 hearts, 3 J's, 3 4's, 2 T's, 3 3's) so if one of those 17 - 19 cards fall I don't think we get him to push unless he has us beat or it's nuts vs 2nd nuts. In light of that I think I make a standard 3x his raise here and make it ~3500. A push is ok, but I think he'll call that raise (esp w/ a set / lower flush) more often than a push.

EDIT: Because I can't count...

[FortunaMaximus]

A thinking opponent will piece together the action. Thought process: Limps button, raises flop. And raising on turn, unless he has a flush also, letting the board pair isn't going to matter as far as extracting chips on turn.

Yes, free cards are horrible. I don't dispute that. However, there are only 12 outs that pair the board on river giving Villains probable FH's or quads. and in this instance, he should have 2 of them in his holding. If Villain has a flush OR set, he will probably bet the river and is more likely to anyway if he does have a flush or thinks Hero doesn't have one.

If you raise turn, he's flatcalling with his sets and reraising his smaller flush(maybe) or even mucking it. the hands you don't want to fold turn will, sometimes, fold to the raise. And you get the same number of chips that your raise would have gotten a cold-call from, on the river when Villain bets out his flush or set.

The turn card is a heart, and it is a 4. If you raise turn, you will cause Villain to think about WHY you raised and what with.

Fair enough, raising is a standard option. And you might get some 3-bets. But how likely is that to happen?

[Foucault]

Everyone is talking about Villain having sets, two pairs, and low flushes. Can't his range include one pair hands also, with or without a good heart? All he's seen so far is that I stabbed at a limped pot when it was checked to me in position. With two players still to act behind him, I agree he has to have something to call flop, but I don't think he has to be as strong as everyone is assuming. He should be leading this turn with almost everything in his range now that he's gotten heads up with me.

[registrar]

This is true. Nevertheless, he's not 'stabbing' twice and this is why I don't like a call and why I do like push or some kind of donk raise. These are the only ways I can see to get more money out of him if he's FOS or thinks we are FOS and doesn't have a hand. I'm not sure what river card can induce another bet from him.