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#1
09-18-2006, 06:48 AM
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Something is Rotten in the State of Denmark
This hand arises Level 1 of the 5000 Euro (~US$7000) EPT Barcelona main event. Blinds start at 25/50 and go up every hour, we have 10K chips to start.
Early into the third orbit, the table’s been playing tight, and I have yet to enter a pot. UTG min-raises to 100, and I make it 350 in MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. A young Danish woman to my immediate left looks at her cards, looks at me, smiles, looks back at her cards, and calls. It folds around to UTG, who calls. Flop J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG checks, I bet 600, and Ann starts shuffling her chips. She studies the board, looks at me, checks her cards, counts off some chips, checks her cards again, and finally raises to 3000. UTG folds. She has ~3500 behind after betting, I have ~9000. Obviously after like 20 hands it's hard to have much of a read, but this woman seemed to be moderately loose and aggressive and generally decent but not great. She'd been involved in more than her fair share of pots, but had always employed small bets and raises. This large bet seemed completely out of sync with everything else she'd done, but again, this is very early in the tournament, so that's not saying much. 
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#2
09-18-2006, 07:02 AM
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Re: Something is Rotten in the State of Denmark
Nice thread title.
Hamlet tried to send Ophelia to a nunnery. I'd figure the lady is a little too worried about the FD? She's willing to go broke with this hand. I can't imagine it'd be anything other than KK or AA, maybe JJ. She probably thought about reraising preflop.
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#3
09-18-2006, 07:19 AM
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Re: Something is Rotten in the State of Denmark
Wow, this sucks.
How can we do anything but fold? The worst hand I see her doing this with is A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
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#5
09-18-2006, 09:47 AM
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Re: Something is Rotten in the State of Denmark
She probably didn't flat call preflop with AA, KK, 33, 22, J2, J2, or 32. She could have JJ for a set.
The overbet raise looks like a strong flush draw. AKh or AQh. She really can't have a pair and a flush draw. A lower flush draw with a suited connector is possible, but she probably folds this preflop and may not play it as aggressively. I am pretty sure she has AKh or AQh. Since you have QQ, AKs is much more likely than AQs. Also, her preflop tells indicate she ws considering a reraise, which would be sonsistent with AKs. So the only cards that really make sense here for her are AKh. So I am pretty sure her exact cards are Ah Kh. Problem is, you are behind AKh 55-45, although pretty much dead even with pot odds. Now if she doesn't have that, she could have JJ. AA, KK, 33, and 22 are less likely. Those are the only logical hands that beat you. There is somepossiility of a low flush draw, an underpair, or AK without a flush draw. I think this is maybe a fold, but it is actually pretty close.
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#6
09-18-2006, 10:48 AM
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Re: Something is Rotten in the State of Denmark
[ QUOTE ]
She probably didn't flat call preflop with AA, KK, 33, 22... [/ QUOTE ] Why not? What would you expect her to do with 22/33 pre-flop? The pot has already been re-raised, so I don't think the bigger pairs are improbable either. I'd probably flat call with them a fair amount of the time, as putting in a fourth bet versus and early position raise and re-raise is revealing an awful lot about the strength of your hand.
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#7
09-18-2006, 11:04 AM
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Re: Something is Rotten in the State of Denmark
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] She probably didn't flat call preflop with AA, KK, 33, 22... [/ QUOTE ] Why not? What would you expect her to do with 22/33 pre-flop? The pot has already been re-raised, so I don't think the bigger pairs are improbable either. I'd probably flat call with them a fair amount of the time, as putting in a fourth bet versus and early position raise and re-raise is revealing an awful lot about the strength of your hand. [/ QUOTE ] Point taken. But I think the overbet is still probably AhKh. An overpair or set probably doesn't overbet. Still, since you are even with pot odds against AhKh, and there is the possibility of a bigger made hand, it seems like this is a fold.
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#8
09-18-2006, 11:09 AM
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Re: Something is Rotten in the State of Denmark
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] She probably didn't flat call preflop with AA, KK, 33, 22... [/ QUOTE ] Why not? What would you expect her to do with 22/33 pre-flop? The pot has already been re-raised, so I don't think the bigger pairs are improbable either. I'd probably flat call with them a fair amount of the time, as putting in a fourth bet versus and early position raise and re-raise is revealing an awful lot about the strength of your hand. [/ QUOTE ] Point taken. But I think the overbet is still probably AhKh. An overpair or set probably doesn't overbet. Still, since you are even with pot odds against AhKh, and there is the possibility of a bigger made hand, it seems like this is a fold. [/ QUOTE ] yeah.
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#9
09-18-2006, 01:31 PM
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Re: Something is Rotten in the State of Denmark
I noticed no one mentioned AJ in her range. Of course after two raises we are all folding AJ (and maybe I have online poker syndrome) but the OP mentioned she was loose. Couldn't AJ be in here range too? Why not?
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#10
09-18-2006, 02:02 PM
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Re: Something is Rotten in the State of Denmark
[ QUOTE ]
I noticed no one mentioned AJ in her range. Of course after two raises we are all folding AJ (and maybe I have online poker syndrome) but the OP mentioned she was loose. Couldn't AJ be in here range too? Why not? [/ QUOTE ] In live bigger tourney's I see people playing AJ or even KQ to raises and re-raises, so I wouldn't totally discount it as a possibility.
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