AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?

loosemmjan · #1 10-25-2007, 12:35 PM

Hero's read is that villain is reasonable. Hero made a 4x raise indicating a strong hand that didn't want a call. Villain responded by saying let's play for stacks.

Hero is never ahead in this spot based on Hero's read.

Villains range (1010+, AK+)

Hero folds because there is no sense in flipping at this point in the tourney.

The only reason I will change my mind is if Hero had been active giving villain a reason to think that Hero is fos.

obtw Why the 4x raise?

~loose

bucktotal · #2 10-25-2007, 12:58 PM

raise less pf.

ssnyc · #3 10-25-2007, 01:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Hero's read is that villain is reasonable. Hero made a 4x raise indicating a strong hand that didn't want a call. Villain responded by saying let's play for stacks.

Hero is never ahead in this spot based on Hero's read.

Villains range (1010+, AK+)

Hero folds because there is no sense in flipping at this point in the tourney.

The only reason I will change my mind is if Hero had been active giving villain a reason to think that Hero is fos.

obtw Why the 4x raise?

~loose

[/ QUOTE ]

my bad...that's two i've misread...too tired I guess...must be why I keep losing all these races [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] fatigue!

Ontario_Tory · #4 10-25-2007, 01:08 PM

what's wrong with a 4 X BB initial raise?

I vary my initial PF raise between 3 and 4 bb's in a pretty random fashion. This one happened to be 4.

I thought that 4 X BB was the new 3... Am I wrong on that?

OT

ssnyc · #5 10-25-2007, 01:12 PM

I think 2.5 is in vogue...raise less and do it more often...decide what to do it reraised on case by case

BrandiFan · #6 10-25-2007, 02:50 PM

Unless villian has been extra tight or you have a read that he never 3 bet bluffs you are frequently ahead in this spot and AJ and pure bluffs are not out of villians range, but AA and KK may be. Call.

And raise less pre. One good reason for smaller bet sizes is to leave you more room to manuver with 3 and 4 betting. Obv he donk shoved and you have no room to manuver in this case, but I don't take the fact that he shoved over a 4x raise to mean too much if Hero had been opening fairly regularly for 4x.

edit: I can't read.

bucktotal · #7 10-25-2007, 03:15 PM

i just wrote the below... and noticed that everyones saying the same thing... but i'll post it anyway...

At this stage of a huge field MTT, the same results can be obtained with a smaller pf raise presenting you with a smaller risk/reward ratio.

here... the reraise offers borderline pot odds to call.. but as sherman pointed out... whether you actually have the correct odds is heavily influenced by the rr range of villain. as shown, adding AQ has a huge effect on your equity in this pot. thats up to you to decide... i dont think i would include with 23/2xxx field remaining. but i dunno, its super read dependent.

with no real read... its probably a break even call. and i wouldnt hate it if you folded or called.

However, if you had raised to 24-26000k (my standard size at this level) then you wouldve been getting sig less pot odds and a fold may be correct... (and reduces variance which is what sounds like you are looking for).

essentially, i think your 4x raise forces you to call here.

tinty · #8 10-25-2007, 03:47 PM

i think everything's been covered already except one thing: winning this puts you in a superb position chip wise heading into the last two tables and towards a big score.

It looks like it's just about a call even with some very tight ranges being mentioned and added to the above point i think this is definately a call. with 50 left maybe things are a bit different? but probably not.

Ontario_Tory · #9 10-25-2007, 04:06 PM

Thanks for the input guys - esp on the PF raise sizes.

FYI:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t10000 (7 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button (t88240)
SB (t200986)
BB (t759452)
UTG (t117934)
Hero (t286278)
MP2 (t337451)
CO (t498055)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to t40000, 1 fold, CO raises to t280000, 3 folds, Hero raises to t285278, CO calls t5278.

Flop: (t575556) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: (t575556) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t575556) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t575556

Results:
Hero has As Kd (high card, ace).
CO has Ks Kh (one pair, kings).
Outcome: CO wins t575556. GG OT.

Sherman · #10 10-25-2007, 05:43 PM

So with the antes now included we need ~44.4% equity to break even.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.392% 27.16% 13.23% 15347135 7476961.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 59.608% 46.38% 13.23% 26204975 7476961.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }

Looks like a fold to me.

FWIW, I think I'd actually fold in this spot (or at least I am telling myself I would) if I were getting 44-45% equity (about break even).

Here is why:

There are 23 players left in this tournament. We are getting closer and closer to the point where survival (just have 1 chip) means lots and lots more money.

But let's ignore that point for a minute b/c we aren't quite there yet.

Let's answer this set of questions instead:

1) How successful have I been at stealing the blinds uncontested?

2) How good are my remaining opponents?

3) Are they aggressive or nitty?

4) What is the functional utility of my present stack?

5) How much functional utility do I expect to gain by doubling up here?

Depending on the answers to these questions, I think we might have to strongly consider folding. If we are not really having any trouble stealing blinds and there is no serious functional chip utility gain by doubling here, I really don't think we should risk it.

Now I know what many of your regulars are thinking. WTF. How can we pass up a +cEV spot? And WTF, Sherman NEVER folds AK PF, how can he seriously think about doing it here? WellI agree with you. If this were the first hand of the tournament, I am never hesitating to move all in. But at this point of the MTT, $EV is starting to diverge from cEV. And even if we do double up, how much does our $EV increase? It certainly doesn't double. How much $EV do we lose if we bust here?

I don't have the answers to all these questions, but I do believe that in very close spots, when you are very deep in an MTT, you have to consider that sometimes the best play for a particular hand (in a vacuum) isn't the best play for the tournament.

I honestly think this may be one of those spots. I just don't think we gain a whole lot by doubling and that on average we lose more by busting than we gain by doubling (depending on other tournament dynamics: i.e. are we the best player, are the players folding a lot, etc.).

Beyond that, the math above indicates that we should fold here anwyhow.

Sherman