Sit 'n Go Strategy study group -- Part I: Low Blind Play

[ymu]

^^Fair enough, but any c-bet carries risks which need to be assessed before you make it. If you're in the awkward stack zone, one of those risks is magnified because you don't just risk losing chips, you risk losing FE for future pushes. I c-bet when it seems +$EV to do so - that $EV calc includes the "what if it fails" scenario.

[Slim Pickens]

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Hi, I am new to this forum and relatively new to sit and go’s. I grasp the concept of the tournament equity section where all in coin flip confrontations early on can actually reduce your equity. However I have a couple questions:

1. In Hand 1-4, it is recommended to shove with AK after a raise and two limpers. Let’s assume no one has been eliminated, everyone has 2k in chips, and one person calls your push. Is your tournament equity reduced if you are called by someone with JJ and in a coin-flip situation? There is t460 more chips in this situation than if you call an all-in if MP1 open pushes and it is folded to you. Do the t460 chips make the difference or is it because there is fold equity?
2. How big a favorite do you have to be to call an all-in in low-blind play (2-1, 3-1, etc.)? How many chips have to be in the middle to make your all-in call worth the risk of your tournament life assuming only one person will call (t2460, t2600, etc.)?

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The best way to do this is to get an ICM calculator and determine your equity in each of the possible outcomes. Then you can write down some equations, usually using an equality that you want your equity if you call ($EV_fold) to be equal to your equity if you push ($EV_push). There should be one unknown in the equation and you can use basic algebra to solve for it.

[Slim Pickens]

It's not really a "gut feeling" thing at all. Here's the two hands people have made up as possible continuation bets.

1)
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5-Handed 50/100
Hero(1300): AK raise to 300
CO (2000): Calls
Folds

Flop 378 rainbow
pot is 750
Hero goes allin 1000

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5-Handed 50/100
Hero (1300): AK raise to 300 CO+1
folds
SB (2000): call

Flop: Q49 rainbow
pot is t700
SB Checks
Hero bets 375

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The reasons to continuation-bet in hand 2 and not in hand 1 include...
<ul type="square">[*]You are in position and your opponent has shown weakness by checking.[*]The Q on the board can scare hands like any non-premium pocket pair that hasn't hit a set and Ax/Kx hands that have one overcard to the board instead of two.[*] Your opponent's call from a blind usually indicates a weaker hand than a call from a non-blind position.[*] In the event your c-bet gets called, you will likely see two more cards instead of just one, since most opponents will check the turn OOP even if they think their hand is best.[/list]
The fact is you have a lot more folding equity in hand 2 than hand 1, and your hand has more potential showdown value the times you do get called. It's just basic SNG math rather than poker gut instinct.

[ymu]

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It's just basic SNG math rather than poker gut instinct.

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It's also opponent dependent. I play pretty low stakes and some players will regularly call down with an underpair to every single card on the flop or any A high - others will play fit or fold and never ever check-raise - others will c/r with any PP and sometimes any A high. You do need to know who you're up against. If I think it has a low chance of working I don't c-bet, I take a free card. Is that so wrong?

[Slim Pickens]

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It's just basic SNG math rather than poker gut instinct.

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It's also opponent dependent. I play pretty low stakes and some players will regularly call down with an underpair to every single card on the flop or any A high - others will play fit or fold and never ever check-raise - others will c/r with any PP and sometimes any A high. You do need to know who you're up against. If I think it has a low chance of working I don't c-bet, I take a free card. Is that so wrong?

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That's not wrong at all. I just want to point out that what you're doing is using your poker instinct/skills to estimate probabilities, and the rest is just simple math. There's a very important step in between the poker guesswork and the final push/fold/bet/raise/call/whatever action that's effectively unique to SNGs.

To be clear, I'm not necessarily recommending a continuation bet in the second hand. I'm just pointing out reasons why it's much more likely to be the proper play in hand 2 as compared to hand 1.

[mcpst17]

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Hi, I am new to this forum and relatively new to sit and go’s. I grasp the concept of the tournament equity section where all in coin flip confrontations early on can actually reduce your equity. However I have a couple questions:

1. In Hand 1-4, it is recommended to shove with AK after a raise and two limpers. Let’s assume no one has been eliminated, everyone has 2k in chips, and one person calls your push. Is your tournament equity reduced if you are called by someone with JJ and in a coin-flip situation? There is t460 more chips in this situation than if you call an all-in if MP1 open pushes and it is folded to you. Do the t460 chips make the difference or is it because there is fold equity?
2. How big a favorite do you have to be to call an all-in in low-blind play (2-1, 3-1, etc.)? How many chips have to be in the middle to make your all-in call worth the risk of your tournament life assuming only one person will call (t2460, t2600, etc.)?

[/ QUOTE ]

The best way to do this is to get an ICM calculator and determine your equity in each of the possible outcomes. Then you can write down some equations, usually using an equality that you want your equity if you call ($EV_fold) to be equal to your equity if you push ($EV_push). There should be one unknown in the equation and you can use basic algebra to solve for it.

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Thank you for the response. I had to look up what ICM was since I did not get to that chapter in the book yet. I will take some time to read this section and try to work through some calculations on my own. I was really hoping someone would explain the difference in the AK hands from Question 1 above as it relates to your tournament equity. If my questions are too "Beginner” for this forum I apologize and would appreciate if someone could direct me to the appropriate forum. Thank you.

[Slim Pickens]

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[ QUOTE ]
Hi, I am new to this forum and relatively new to sit and go’s. I grasp the concept of the tournament equity section where all in coin flip confrontations early on can actually reduce your equity. However I have a couple questions:

1. In Hand 1-4, it is recommended to shove with AK after a raise and two limpers. Let’s assume no one has been eliminated, everyone has 2k in chips, and one person calls your push. Is your tournament equity reduced if you are called by someone with JJ and in a coin-flip situation? There is t460 more chips in this situation than if you call an all-in if MP1 open pushes and it is folded to you. Do the t460 chips make the difference or is it because there is fold equity?
2. How big a favorite do you have to be to call an all-in in low-blind play (2-1, 3-1, etc.)? How many chips have to be in the middle to make your all-in call worth the risk of your tournament life assuming only one person will call (t2460, t2600, etc.)?

[/ QUOTE ]

The best way to do this is to get an ICM calculator and determine your equity in each of the possible outcomes. Then you can write down some equations, usually using an equality that you want your equity if you call ($EV_fold) to be equal to your equity if you push ($EV_push). There should be one unknown in the equation and you can use basic algebra to solve for it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thank you for the response. I had to look up what ICM was since I did not get to that chapter in the book yet. I will take some time to read this section and try to work through some calculations on my own. I was really hoping someone would explain the difference in the AK hands from Question 1 above as it relates to your tournament equity. If my questions are too "Beginner” for this forum I apologize and would appreciate if someone could direct me to the appropriate forum. Thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your question is exactly the right level. Hand 1-4 would be a good one to work through in more detail. For now, just assume an ICM calculator is a black box that translates chip stacks at the table and tournament payouts into tournament equity, as explained on pages 6-11. "Tournament equity" is also called "prize pool equity," or sometimes just "equity" in cases where it's assumed to be in a tournament. I usually use the term "prize pool equity."

Looking at hand 1-4, let's assume for now that you have only two options: raise all-in or fold. So the question becomes "Which option gives you the highest prize pool equity, pushing all-in or folding?" It will be necessary for you to make some assumptions because not all of the necessary information is supplied explicitly in the problem statement given in the book.

Get as far as you can and post your results/thoughts/questions. If you get stuck somewhere, just post whatever you've done up to that point.

EDIT: Here is the ICM calculator I use. There are a few others in the "other Links" sticky.

[ymu]

You're fab Slim. Thanks for this thread.

[mcpst17]

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Hi, I am new to this forum and relatively new to sit and go’s. I grasp the concept of the tournament equity section where all in coin flip confrontations early on can actually reduce your equity. However I have a couple questions:

1. In Hand 1-4, it is recommended to shove with AK after a raise and two limpers. Let’s assume no one has been eliminated, everyone has 2k in chips, and one person calls your push. Is your tournament equity reduced if you are called by someone with JJ and in a coin-flip situation? There is t460 more chips in this situation than if you call an all-in if MP1 open pushes and it is folded to you. Do the t460 chips make the difference or is it because there is fold equity?
2. How big a favorite do you have to be to call an all-in in low-blind play (2-1, 3-1, etc.)? How many chips have to be in the middle to make your all-in call worth the risk of your tournament life assuming only one person will call (t2460, t2600, etc.)?

[/ QUOTE ]

The best way to do this is to get an ICM calculator and determine your equity in each of the possible outcomes. Then you can write down some equations, usually using an equality that you want your equity if you call ($EV_fold) to be equal to your equity if you push ($EV_push). There should be one unknown in the equation and you can use basic algebra to solve for it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thank you for the response. I had to look up what ICM was since I did not get to that chapter in the book yet. I will take some time to read this section and try to work through some calculations on my own. I was really hoping someone would explain the difference in the AK hands from Question 1 above as it relates to your tournament equity. If my questions are too "Beginner” for this forum I apologize and would appreciate if someone could direct me to the appropriate forum. Thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your question is exactly the right level. Hand 1-4 would be a good one to work through in more detail. For now, just assume an ICM calculator is a black box that translates chip stacks at the table and tournament payouts into tournament equity, as explained on pages 6-11. "Tournament equity" is also called "prize pool equity," or sometimes just "equity" in cases where it's assumed to be in a tournament. I usually use the term "prize pool equity."

Looking at hand 1-4, let's assume for now that you have only two options: raise all-in or fold. So the question becomes "Which option gives you the highest prize pool equity, pushing all-in or folding?" It will be necessary for you to make some assumptions because not all of the necessary information is supplied explicitly in the problem statement given in the book.

Get as far as you can and post your results/thoughts/questions. If you get stuck somewhere, just post whatever you've done up to that point.

EDIT: Here is the ICM calculator I use. There are a few others in the "other Links" sticky.

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I really appreciate your help and will work on this the next couple of nights. Thanks again [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[mcpst17]

Ok I tried to work through some calculations and would appreciate any comments. I worked through example 1-4 with 2 different scenarios.

1. MP-1 pushes and it is folded to you in the SB.
2. Same Scenario in the book example. Except when you push you know that MP-1 has JJ and will call.

In scenario one

· Fold – your equity if you fold is .107 assuming a chip stack of t1910 after small blind taken out.
· Call and Win – assume that you know MP-1 has JJ. So the percentage to win is .44 and to lose is .56 assuming no split pots. So that should be .56(0) + .44(.200) = .088. This is below your equity of .107 if you fold, so this appears to be a clear fold if you know MP-1 has JJ.
· Call and lose – .0 equity

In Scenario two

· Fold – your equity is .107 assuming a chip stack of t1910 after small blind is taken out and assuming that MP-1 will bet the Flop and everyone folds.
· Call and Win - assume that you know MP-1 has JJ. So the percentage to win is .44 and to lose is .56 assuming no split pots. So that should be .56(0) + .44(.217) = .096. This is below your equity of .107, so this appears to be a fold if you know MP-1 has JJ. I know I am not factoring in that he may fold, so there must be some fold equity to make this the right play. But if we know that MP-1 has JJ and will call it appears to be a fold.
· Call and Fold – .0 equity