an expert and i disagreed on this one...

[Joe Tall]

They get scared and check through too much, so much more will pay you off, bet.

[Joe Tall]

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the river is the part we disagree on. i think betting is significantly better.

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No question.

edit - I just read HOWMANY's guess that agreeing with mike may mean you're fanboy. I have high respect for mike's play and thoughts, but quit that club a while ago.

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Came back and added a nice comment, wow, you are one helluva guy.

[danzasmack]

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i want to state one thing now, though i have lots more to say later:

if this particular fish raises the river with an A (or better) he will at least call a 3 bet 100% of the time. this is not debatable.

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I'm also assuming he will sometimes, though rarely, make a super terrible bluff raise. This point is meh though because you could argue both ways.

But this isn't online. He can call and muck if he wants. Just to see if you "sucked out"

[surfdoc]

I don't think this one is particularly close. HOWMANY already nailed down the details.

For the record, I like Mike. We are indeed friends. We drove to the casino together and had a great time with special invited guest surf (formerly known as surfbullet) telling fish stories the whole way home. Many of the hands described I was the fish. I disagree with mike often. Rendering opinions on this board has very little to do with who we like or who's fanclub we are in.

For those that are worried about embarassing the fish, see this comment.

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the embarassment factor never crossed my mind. people regularly embarass themselves so badly by acting like 3 year olds that it's a non-issue at commerce. seriously.


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This comment is understated and polite. These people throw cards, verbally abuse each other and the dealers, and angle shoot. They slowroll and generally act the fool at the first opening. The second worst player in the casino will be seen yelling at the worst player for sucking out on the river when they both called 3 cold preflop with 94o and J3o. If I find a line that wins me the most money I am taking it every single time and never once feeling the slightest remorse. Believe me, they won't feel any remorse when they crack your aces with no pair no draw on the flop and make running 2 pair, or make a bluffraise so preposterous that it can never be a bluff and you fold the winner while they show their friends and laugh.

[SA125]

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Came back and added a nice comment, wow, you are one helluva guy.

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My main man Joe T. True story here. I'm playing 40-80 O8 tonight and there's a maniac on a rush. Winning ridiculous big pots with crap. Has the table shaking their heads wondering when the madness will stop. There's silence after every hand he wins. I'm tapping the table and sincerely saying "NH". He's nodding appreciatively. We've never met before.

I'm stuck and cold decked after a few hours. He's sitting 2 seats away and twice he throws me 4 red chips for luck. After the second time I tell him I really appreciate it but that's enough. I come back, give him a bet back when we're h/u on the river and it's all good.

He saw and heard the sneers but knew I wasn't trolling him. He really was a nice, respectable man. He just played bad and won. And also eventually lost. A lot. Like more than most others do. Like 5K.

For a guy who I've never met, but have had I think two polite conversations on the phone with, you obviously got a bone you love to pick Joe. It's funny. One helluva of guy. LOL.

[vmacosta]

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I don't think this one is particularly close. HOWMANY already nailed down the details.

For the record, I like Mike. We are indeed friends. We drove to the casino together and had a great time with special invited guest surf (formerly known as surfbullet) telling fish stories the whole way home. Many of the hands described I was the fish. I disagree with mike often. Rendering opinions on this board has very little to do with who we like or who's fanclub we are in.

For those that are worried about embarassing the fish, see this comment.

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the embarassment factor never crossed my mind. people regularly embarass themselves so badly by acting like 3 year olds that it's a non-issue at commerce. seriously.


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This comment is understated and polite. These people throw cards, verbally abuse each other and the dealers, and angle shoot. They slowroll and generally act the fool at the first opening. The second worst player in the casino will be seen yelling at the worst player for sucking out on the river when they both called 3 cold preflop with 94o and J3o. If I find a line that wins me the most money I am taking it every single time and never once feeling the slightest remorse. Believe me, they won't feel any remorse when they crack your aces with no pair no draw on the flop and make running 2 pair, or make a bluffraise so preposterous that it can never be a bluff and you fold the winner while they show their friends and laugh.

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Yeah, you guys are right. I was referring to a much different type of fish (nice rich guy who comes in a few hours a week and doesn't mind losing bc he enjoys the company of some of the players) you are referring to and I was probably wrong anyhow.

As for the comment about liking Mike, I was mostly suggesting that answers would be slightly less biased if you didn't write your opinion. I was likely wrong there as well, because the discussion was pretty good anyhow (though its worth noting that basically nobosy weighed in on Roman's side and there must be SOMEBODY who visits this forum who at least thought it was close).

[Surf]

Roman's a great player, but i'm not stoked about his flop donk, it doesn't make a whole ton of sense unless villain is checking behind AK/JJ which i doubt given his current semi-enraged state.

As for the river, I think roman expects to be raised along the way by a PP, especially with the oh-so-aggravating flop donk he laid out there (hmm...maybe that makes more sense then if fish will raise PPs vs the donk, b3b flop is nice 'cause he's not folding after the pot gets so big...) so villains most likely holding is AK or a tilty AJ, which he will definitely bet and call a c/r with.

My gut reaction was to agree with roman, and that's how i would play it at the table.

However, IMO mike, surfdoc, et al, are correct that the tilty aggro fish will happily raise a pair of aces on the river thinking they sucked out on roman's TT, and he'll call the 3bet pretty much always, if only to get to enjoy the "beat" by disgustedly throwing his cards in the muck when roman tables his hand.

Surf

[PokerBob]

the proper play is to bet but look like you hate doing so.

[andyfox]

The Commerce "fish" are not a breed. Some are cantankerous and some are lovely. If I were going to make a generalization, however, I would say the better players, by and large, are more likely to be cantankerous than the poorer players.

There may be metgame reasons to not check-raise this river. There are players against whom I will never check-raise the river head-up and I'm sure it's +EV to do so. And Roman might have had terrific reasons for figuring that against this particular player at this particular time in this particular situation, checking was the superior play. I'm assuming Mike wanted a pure EV analysis of this particular hand in isolation.

Knowing nothing other than that this opponent was riled up at Roman's chip collection, I would have advised Roman to bet, thinking his opponent would call the river out of frustration even if his better sense told him his pocket pair was now certainly no good, and that if his opponent had an ace, he might well raise and call a 3-bet, again due to his frustration.

[emerson]

I like the check on the river. The guy will probably fold to a bet if he doesn't have an ace. If he has an ace the best he'll probably do is call. The check on the river makes it look like the sb fears the ace and could possibly have been bluffing. This guy who you say is sometimes aggressive may possibly now bet, even if he doesn't have an ace. In short, I think there are more hands he'll bet with than call with.

I don't think checking is a strong favorite. There are certainly lots of hands that he'd be likely to call with that he'll also simply check behind when checked to.

The preflop fold is close. Your additional 2 small bet contribution is about a 15.75% investment in the pot, after rake and $1 dealer tip. Your pot equity is about 18% based on likely ranges for the two players. If you put the sb on a range of pp >=88, AJ or ATs, & KQs, with the other guy at pp >=TT, AK, & AQs. If you tighten their ranges a bit, perhaps putting the first guy on JJ or better and AK only, and the sb on 88 or better, AK, AQ, and AJs only, then it almost a coin toss. But I think the sb probably has a bigger 3 bet range given that you have done nothing but raise a poor playing limper from rather late position. With position and having one poor player in the pot, and being the implied odds favorite, I like seeing the flop.