Middle set on a sick board facing a CRaise-50NL Deep

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insta-shove

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i disagree with this big time, look to ama's post

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I read thru Ama`s post and changed my mind.

wait 7 sec on flop - shove ...

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Since I will not be folding a set of 8s here, a flop reraise from our site looks at least as scary as a shove, so I might as well shove and stack villains 2pair, TP+draw etc ..

[IAGTTAYM]

Are we really sure that a guy with a 1.55 aggr. factor is raising the flop with T9 or 98? I would probably just shove the flop, as our equity wont change much against 2 pair, sets and straights on the turn.

[LarryLaughs]

I shove.

I am pretty sure if you do the range math, it is a shove.

Lets do an estimate:

Board: 8d 7s Tc

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.129% 57.26% 00.87% 74261 1126.50 { 88 }

Hand 1: 41.871% 41.00% 00.87% 53176 1126.50 { TT, 77, J9s+, T8s-T7s, 96s, 87s, J9o+, 87o }

I only count T8s since him having an 8 is not likely.
Also, not putting 96o there, 96s might be possible.
And that is not including the one pair hands he might go in with JJ and AT being there if he is fishy enough.

[ama0330]

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Call and get it in on a safe turn. IF you push here you are going to be losing 150bb to a better hand. Sure he could have flopped a straight and you'll still get stacked on an A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] turn, but your equity against his range will be MUCH better and therefore waiting for the turn is more technically correct.
100bb I probably shove here, but I would still give some thought to the line I have just mentioned.

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Wasn't there an enormous thread between Baluga and some regulars in SSNL where it was decided that waiting for your equity to improve on the turn is worse than just getting it in now? I'll try to fish it out as I'm fairly certain that just dumping it in is better.

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Id be intested if you could dig this link up...

[chopper204]

I push to get out the other guy if he is on a draw. What's to say that the raiser doesn't have an overpair. If he has top set then we eat it, very hard to get away from. If he flopped a straight then pray for the board to pair. if we only call then we may price in the third person. PUSH!!!

[matrix]

vs this range on the flop we are a 60% fav

KK+,TT,77,J9s,T8s,87s,J9o,87o

if the turn bricks our equity drops to 57% (we now have more outs to pair the board but only once)

Jam the flop.

[Profish2285]

All the times villain shows you two pair or a lower set make this a must shove. I think waiting for a safe turn is bad because there are many turns that will stop villain from giving us action if he has a hand we beat on the flop.

[Check_The_Nuts]

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Call and get it in on a safe turn. IF you push here you are going to be losing 150bb to a better hand. Sure he could have flopped a straight and you'll still get stacked on an A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] turn, but your equity against his range will be MUCH better and therefore waiting for the turn is more technically correct.

100bb I probably shove here, but I would still give some thought to the line I have just mentioned.

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the bad part of this arguement is that if you don't shove this flop certain cards are going to kill your action. Basically any card that fills in a 4-liner to a straight. There's 3 of them, so 3x2=12% of the time you don't stack him with this line.