more Hand Reading practice

[corsakh]

draws, boats, three pairs and 87, 89 vs 99

[matrix]

bump for some more thoughts.

[thing85]

We want results!

[jgunnip]

Hero has a weak made hand. JTs+, maybe JJ/99.

Bet timing for villain would be helpful

villain might have a straight. I think sets and overpairs bet the flop stronger although a lot of times people will bet the flop small with strong hands and then make a strong bet on the turn. But this board is pretty scary for those hands. A8, A6? I don't think even the lagtards three barrel here with such weak hands at 50nl unless they are complete maniacs. Same for AK/AQ. 86 and T8 are possibilities. I dunno its hard to put players like this on hands, although when somebody takes a line like this I tend to give them credit for a fairly strong hands. Ks3s ftw.

[WHEN_WE_ESCAPE]

How could hero have anything here that he played well? This post is a lol

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]

Bet timing for villain would be helpful

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain fires every street with just a couple of seconds thinking time. So clearly he is not thinking. I think this polarises his range into nuts or bluff.

Hero tanked for 10secs ish before making the river call.

Most people have figured out my hand correctly - I have 99.

How often is villains line an OP thus making my call spectacularly bad. How often is villain 3 barrelling whiffed OC's or a missed draw maybe with a smaller pair like 67ss A7ss or something similar?

When_we_escape:
many thanks for your fabulous contribution to this thread.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
How could hero have anything here that he played well? This post is a lol

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhm, did you read OP?

[ QUOTE ]

Villain is 32/22/5 lagfish.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hero can call down light and expect to see some seriously bad hands. Hero also doesn't want to raise anywhere because he either loses out on more bluffs to snap off or he gets called/three-bet by villain's sneaky monster.

I'm thinking hero has a suited connector that hit the board:

JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, or 65s.

It's also possible that hero has 99/77/55/44/22. I even think this play is fine with JJ, though at that point the preflop smooth-call is a bit suspect. Hero could be mixing up his preflop play and committing to calling down flop/turn/river on any board with JJ, hoping to swipe a big pot and get villain to quit stealing his blinds....

With a hand stronger than JJ I'd expect hero to make a river raise at the very least, so that's about all I'm willing to give hero in this situation.

As to villain, he raises 22% of all of his preflop hands. Since he's not in stealing position I'm going to stick with about 22% of his hands as a good range. Unfortunately these players come in many different flavors, so I'll broaden it a bit to include any two cards T+, any pair, any suited ace, any suited connector, any unsuited connector, and any suited one-gapper. That's about 30% of hands, but his range probably falls in there somewhere.

The flop bet does not narrow his range for me -- most people this aggro have a c-bet percentage that's something more than 100%. The fact that it was small does lead me to believe that he might have a weaker hand. Alternatively, he might have seen hero's check and figured that only a small bet would get called, so he backed off somewhat.

The strong turn bet looks like an improvement to me: my best guess is that villain picked something up there. A3s is certainly possible, as is [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

The river bet narrows villain down to either a stronger hand or a missed hand. At this point, I put villain on:

Hands hero probably beats:
A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
ATs
A8s
A6s
J9s
76
75s
65
54s
55/44/22

Hands hero probably loses to:
TT+
88
66
33
A3s
T8s
97s
86s

(Note that it is much harder to narrow down a loose and aggressive opponent who is playing loosely and aggressively than it is to narrow down a tight and aggressive opponent who is playing tightly and passively.)

[spacetime]

Hero: Assuming you are a decent TAG, your SB calling range here PF is limited to low-mid PP's. I don't see Hero CC with any suited connectors here OOP against an almost certain series of cbets. JJ-AA, KQs+ would all be 3bet PF. With the flop action it is unlikely that hero has flopped a set. There are many draws that villain can have here and it would be more +EV to just play the set fast against this villain. I still don't think that SC are likely b/c of the PF CC from the blinds, but I think J9s, 910 both play the flop the same, as well as any weird low SC's that have FD's along with them. 97s would probably raise, so Ill throw that out. 77, 99 are both possibilities. Basically, you are on a draw or have a decent, but not great, made hand. I am leaning towards the latter.

Hero will probably not call this turn with a non-made hand. If a draw hits the river, villain may check behind which eliminates the implied odds that you would need to justify calling the turn bet.

With the river action, hero obv was not on a draw and did not flop a set. Only likely holdings for hero are 77, 99 and MAYBE some weird J10 or 910 hand, but unlikely IMO given the PF CC. So I am going with 77 or 99, both which I think may warrant a call against this villain.

For villain, his range is very wide here. Any SC with a draw / pair, a flopped set or an overpair would take these lines. He may even be just jamming it because he thinks you are weak (these series of call downs are probably not the reg. for you as a TAG (assuming you are a TAG)). If we have 77 or 99 or a ten, it is likely we are ahead of enough of his range to call this river bet. 77 would suck because there are many 8's and 10's in his range, and the 99 eliminates at least the 8's.

I call this river with 77, 99 and any ten.

[matrix]

so basically the consensus is that we are calling with our 99 here and Villains line looks much like a busted draw or similar.?


Villain flips KJo and shortly afterwards calls me a [censored] donkey for calling his "obvious Overpair"

[Necromancer]

grunch

you 86, 108

Him A set improving to FH, An overpair (coz its quite a weak flop bet, scared of a set, but a strong turn bet-protecting his hand)

Somebody may have TPTK in there somewhere