$25NL Do I have implied odds here?

[Sugar Nut]

First round for me at the table, so no reads.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($41.65)
UTG ($27.10)
UTG+1 ($9.35)
MP1 ($20.65)
MP2 ($26.20)
MP3 ($41.25)
Hero ($24.30)
Button ($56.10)
SB ($28.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $0.75</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls $0.50, MP3 calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50.

Flop: ($3.35) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($3.35) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.5</font>, Button folds, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $4.5</font>, Hero?

<font color="blue">No one is showing any strength here so I figure I can use the Queen as a scare card to semi bluff my nutflushdraw. He checkraises me and I'm getting 3:1 on my money, the board is paired, so if he overlimped 99 or even JJ I'm screwed, but if he has the Queen or a straight I've got at least 8 clean outs and I'm in position. Call or fold? </font>

Thanks for comments and/or discussions.

Sugar Nut

[RapidEvolution]

I think I'd fold here. You're getting 3-1 and at best, you're a 4-1 dog. IMHO, though, Kh and 9h aren't really good cards for you so you're probably only drawing to 6 outs if you aren't drawing dead already to QJ/99/JJ. I think the implieds are ass-bad here, but that's just me.

[Chargers In 07]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd fold here. You're getting 3-1 and at best, you're a 4-1 dog. IMHO, though, Kh and 9h aren't really good cards for you so you're probably only drawing to 6 outs if you aren't drawing dead already to QJ/99/JJ. I think the implieds are ass-bad here, but that's just me.

[/ QUOTE ]ditto

[Warren Harding]

I'd have taken the free card on the turn. I do not think the stab works often enough given all the possible draws and pairs, while someone might make a lower flush or straight off a river [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

[Dennisa]

Sugar,

After looking at the 3 hands you posted today, I think you are trying to play too aggressive for NL25. My mantra is make big hands, bet paid off. You need to be comfortable in aggressive play for higher levels, just too many calling stations here. Too many players coming in preflop so its more likely the villains have made there hands by the river.

At this level, work on your thin value bets, that will help you later on, more so than your bluffing skills here. Just my opinion.

Dennisa

[Sugar Nut]

Thanks a lot for "just" your opinion!
This is exactly the kind of advice I need. I'm trying to make the transition from FLHE to NL, and naturally I encounter some difficulties. I run break even now for 7K hands on $25NL, but I have the strong feeling, that with my cards a better player would be at least 2 or 3 stacks up by now (maybe even more).

I'm trying to get better and all you guys help is highly appreciated.

Sugar Nut

[Albert Moulton]

Fold.

With a paired board and a hand like QJ or 99 a definite possibility, you actually have quite a bit in the way of reverse implied odds if you get a lot of action on the river.

[dobieatwarzOWNER]

easy fold.

don't draw to a flush on a paired 3 straight board with multiple opponents in the pot after you get raised.

[ncboiler]

Snap fold as you may be drawing dead. I don't like the limp PF either. Either raise or fold it. There is no way I'm betting out the turn. I check to see what happens.

[xxrod17xx]

Pretty easy fold here. I also agree with Dennisa. At this level I know you are really trying to improve and probably play a lot like some of the higher limit players on the site. Its true 25NL is a super good place to improve your game. You can work on your aggression for sure, but you are def trying to be too agressive and getting a little spewy. Win money not pots.

Nobody mentioned this yet, but you said you were going to use the turn Q as a scare card. I don't know too many players that are going to give you credit for a Q here at 25NL even if it clearly looks like you could have just checked it to the PFR'er.

In situations like this you have to reduce the amount of "true" outs that you think you have for one because hearts that pair the board may not be good and also you may not be drawing live at all. Implied odds here are usually -implied odds as you hit your flush and go broke because you were drawing dead the whole time. GL at the tables.