Official argue about all things Barry Bonds GOAT thread

[Thremp]

Its pretty std that exceptional players don't follow normal peak/decline phases. Look at Ted Williams and Mariano Rivera.

[MikeyPatriot]

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Its pretty std that exceptional players don't follow normal peak/decline phases. Look at Ted Williams and Mariano Rivera.

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Off-topic: I hate looking at Teddy Ballgame's career stats and seeing those age 24-26 years missing.

[Thremp]

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Its pretty std that exceptional players don't follow normal peak/decline phases. Look at Ted Williams and Mariano Rivera.

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Off-topic: I hate looking at Teddy Ballgame's career stats and seeing those age 24-26 years missing.

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Meh. I just cross my eyes and blur in a few of the random years nearby and put imagine they exist.

[RedBean]

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What age do you expect elite baseball to decline?

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Really? Is it not commonly accepted that most players begin to decline after the age of 30? Obviously there are outliers and that has to be taken into account, but I think the general consensus is 30+.

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I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess that you know very, very little about baseball.


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Love to here the explanation for that comment and why those stats are wrong.

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Because I strongly disagree with your assertion of it being a general consensus that <u>elite</u> baseball players begin to decline after age 30.

In fact, what usually sets them apart is their longevity and production much after others usually decline.

Bonds is no exception to the rule, he's just another in a long line of HOF'ers who've done it.

For one, the last 5 position players voted into the HOF have all seen an increase in their HR rate after age 35, when comparing age's 31-34 to ages 35-39.

Also, more fun with stats as copied from a previous thread a few months back:

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<u>Hypothesis:</u> You just don't start hitting homeruns at a higher rate after age 35...it's unprecedented..

<u>Methodology:</u> We're going to compare a players At-bats per HR rate over two periods...age 31-34 and age 35-39 and see if it increased or decreased.

<u>Findings:</u>

INCREASED HR Rate after age 35:
Hank Aaron, HOF
Barry Bonds
Ted Williams, HOF
Cal Ripken, HOF
Tony Gwynn, HOF
Ken Griffey Jr.
Ryne Sandberg, HOF
Carlton Fisk, HOF
Ozzie FREAKING Smith, HOF
Paul Molitor, HOF
Wade Boggs, HOF

Decreased HR rate after age 35:
Palmeiro (tested positive for steroid use)
Caminiti (admitted steroid use)
Canseco (admitted steroid use)

<u>Summary</u>:
- In the 'increased' group, we have Bonds, Griffey, and NINE Hall of Famers.
- In the 'decreased' group, we have three confirmed steroid users.

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Let's keep going:

<u>Hypothesis:</u> But even with the previous findings, only Bonds has gotten WAYYY better after age 35, his increase in HR rate is unprecedented.

<u>Methodology:</u> We're going to compare the 5 seasons before and after age 35 between Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds, adjusting for the respective league average for each period.

<u>Findings:</u>
From age 30-34: Hank's rate was 2.5 times the entire league.
From age 35-39: Hank's rate was 3.75 times the entire league.

From age 30-34: Bond's rate was 2.5 times the entire league.
From age 35-39: Bond's rate was 3.75 times the entire league.

<u>Summary:</u>
Far from 'unprecedented'...more like 'eerily similar'.

Newsflash- The best of the best...the most far reaching outlier of special player does special things, and it's not 'proof' of anything more than them being a special player.

The stats merely show Bonds is among the best.
No more, no less.

[vhawk01]

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Question for RedBean,

If steroids were illegal from 96-02, doesn't that imply that they were against the rules?

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They werent illegal anymore than morphine is illegal.

[vhawk01]

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However, while his home run rates did increase at the same time as league rates did, he was also doing it at an age when you would expect him to be declining.

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What age do you expect elite baseball to decline?

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Really? Is it not commonly accepted that most players begin to decline after the age of 30? Obviously there are outliers and that has to be taken into account, but I think the general consensus is 30+.

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So if you were going to go looking for outliers, would "sickest hitter ever" be a redflag? How about "home run king?"

[Thremp]

I've read like 10 posts and can tell manbearpig is pissed cause Bonds is the greatest ever, but acts like a dildo.

[vhawk01]

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I've read like 10 posts and can tell manbearpig is pissed cause Bonds is the greatest ever, but acts like a dildo.

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People romanticize sports so much, that whenever someone isnt "just so" or fit what they think they should act like (man with the white hat LDO) they get all riled up. Some people can just come out and say "[censored] it I hate him" but others do things like post in this thread.

[THAY3R]

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re: HR/H and HR/BIP

I'd expect these percentages to go up for most any player with Bonds skill set, for what should be obvious reasons.

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Maybe I am dense, but please elaborate. Unless you are referencing Bill James theory of maintaining one skill set even as others deteriorate.

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Bonds as he got older got bigger/fatter and slower. He's no longer able to hit as many singles as before, which means his hr/h could increase drastically without even gaining power/homers.

[samsonh]

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What age do you expect elite baseball to decline?

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Really? Is it not commonly accepted that most players begin to decline after the age of 30? Obviously there are outliers and that has to be taken into account, but I think the general consensus is 30+.

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I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess that you know very, very little about baseball.


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Love to here the explanation for that comment and why those stats are wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I strongly disagree with your assertion of it being a general consensus that <u>elite</u> baseball players begin to decline after age 30.

In fact, what usually sets them apart is their longevity and production much after others usually decline.

Bonds is no exception to the rule, he's just another in a long line of HOF'ers who've done it.

For one, the last 5 position players voted into the HOF have all seen an increase in their HR rate after age 35, when comparing age's 31-34 to ages 35-39.

Also, more fun with stats as copied from a previous thread a few months back:

--

<u>Hypothesis:</u> You just don't start hitting homeruns at a higher rate after age 35...it's unprecedented..

<u>Methodology:</u> We're going to compare a players At-bats per HR rate over two periods...age 31-34 and age 35-39 and see if it increased or decreased.

<u>Findings:</u>

INCREASED HR Rate after age 35:
Hank Aaron, HOF
Barry Bonds
Ted Williams, HOF
Cal Ripken, HOF
Tony Gwynn, HOF
Ken Griffey Jr.
Ryne Sandberg, HOF
Carlton Fisk, HOF
Ozzie FREAKING Smith, HOF
Paul Molitor, HOF
Wade Boggs, HOF

Decreased HR rate after age 35:
Palmeiro (tested positive for steroid use)
Caminiti (admitted steroid use)
Canseco (admitted steroid use)

<u>Summary</u>:
- In the 'increased' group, we have Bonds, Griffey, and NINE Hall of Famers.
- In the 'decreased' group, we have three confirmed steroid users.

----


Let's keep going:

<u>Hypothesis:</u> But even with the previous findings, only Bonds has gotten WAYYY better after age 35, his increase in HR rate is unprecedented.

<u>Methodology:</u> We're going to compare the 5 seasons before and after age 35 between Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds, adjusting for the respective league average for each period.

<u>Findings:</u>
From age 30-34: Hank's rate was 2.5 times the entire league.
From age 35-39: Hank's rate was 3.75 times the entire league.

From age 30-34: Bond's rate was 2.5 times the entire league.
From age 35-39: Bond's rate was 3.75 times the entire league.

<u>Summary:</u>
Far from 'unprecedented'...more like 'eerily similar'.

Newsflash- The best of the best...the most far reaching outlier of special player does special things, and it's not 'proof' of anything more than them being a special player.

The stats merely show Bonds is among the best.
No more, no less.

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The only problem I have with your reasoning here is this: you constantly harp about Hank admitting his use of 'greenies' and then you trot him out for this example. You can't have it both ways here. He is either dirty as you often claim or he is clean and the precedent for Bonds.