200NL - TPTK on super dry board

[spivey]

No reads on villain, played only about a dozen hands with him, he hasn't done anything really stupid in that time.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $249.25
Hero (BB): $200.00
UTG: $226.50
MP: $198.40
CO: $350.95
BTN: $200.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt K A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, MP calls $2.00, 2 folds, SB calls $1.00, Hero raises to $12.00, MP calls $10.00, SB calls $10.00

Flop: ($36) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $25.00, MP folds, SB calls $25.00

Turn: ($86) 2 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $60.00, SB raises to $150.00, Hero?

Pot Size: $296.00

Villain has $13 behind. Pushing and disregarding baluga theorem is std here, right?

[cs3]

im not betting the turn unless i want to call a shove.
but i check this turn pretty often, so villain can call a river bet with 44-TT, and of course weak Ax. just call if he bets into you on river.

as played call, but expect to see 45s and 33 as often as a weaker Ax

[spivey]

Well, I guess the question is do you want to call a shove here against an unknown.

[13_Xerxes]

Nice post, CS3. If you bet the turn, you need to call a shove (especially with your size bet).
If you prefer pot control/induce a bluff, check is fine (no draw on the flop, extract value on the river).

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice post, CS3. If you bet the turn, you need to call a shove (especially with your size bet).
If you prefer pot control/induce a bluff, check is fine (no draw on the flop, extract value on the river).

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I agree. We'll get to stack his Ax often if we bet, but are we really ahead of his crai range often enough?

[tarheeljks]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I agree. We'll get to stack his Ax often if we bet, but are we really ahead of his crai range often enough?

[/ QUOTE ]

hard to say against an unknown. he could be getting frisky w/Ax of diamonds, or we could be smoked

[therealpk]

keep this hand to 2 streets. bet flop, check turn behind, call river bet or bet for value if checked to.

[spivey]

I'm not sure I agree with only going for 2 streets of value in this hand.

[mythrilfox]

"im not betting the turn unless i want to call a shove."

WHY?

"but i check this turn pretty often, so villain can call a river bet with 44-TT, and of course weak Ax. just call if he bets into you on river."

Do you really think he's calling a river bet with those hands? Do you really think he's folding a weaker ace on the turn? I can see checking here some of the time to try and trap an ace or w/e, but against an unknown I say bet and get it in.

"Well, I guess the question is do you want to call a shove here against an unknown."

ty

"Nice post, CS3. If you bet the turn, you need to call a shove (especially with your size bet)."

Again, why? One such justification might be: his semi-bluffing range on the turn is wide enough such that we can't bet and then fold. Another such justification might be, he will interpret this bet as weakness and pounce on it.

I don't know what your justification is - maybe it's something else - but I don't agree with either of those hypotheses I presented.

Anyway, all [censored] aside, I hardly ever fold AK on a board like this, but this seems like a good place to do it. To call we need him to:
1. semi-bluff with Axdd. 99.9% of players just call here with such a hand, in case you're bluffing but they have outs to improve.
2. bluff with Ax. No one would turn Ax into a bluff on this board. No one.
3. value an ace highly enough that he thinks he can c/c flop c/r turn for value. Maybe AJ/AQ? But if he values those hands that highly why wouldn't he just raise them preflop? This is the most conceivable thing to me, because there are some players that consider AQ a drawing hand there, or w/e, and won't raise preflop, but go nuts once they've hit their hand.

I think all in all A2,A3,33,22,45 are more likely than that, though. So fold.

[Nick Royale]

Nice post MF, I agree.