Jameser <3 's porn

[James.]

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So you're not betting/raising if you hit an ace or king on the turn? Then what is the point of continuing the hand?

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14.40 small bets? I'm not really arguing too hard for this, but I think this could be a situation where you're losing less by making the raise and checking through the turn than you do by folding, and certainly by calling.

-Tim

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?. in your estimation what is hero giving up equity-wise by just folding the flop.

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anyone? i'm curious about some ranges. let's talk equity. i came up with a number...

[Six]

Well, folding is 0 EV, right? I think calling is -EV, and raising might be very marginally +EV. I just really want to find a way to give hero a shot at winning this pot. I want some numbers here, and I suck at doing these more complicated situations so I'd like some help. I'll give it a shot using the preliminary numbers I ran above:

Basically dead against 9, 6+ outs against 12, 3 outs against 18, tie with 9.

Weighting these with our percentages:

.18*0+.24*.25+.125*.37+.5*.18=.196

Note, when we split I gave us a 50% chance of winning since we've got no folding equity but will take down half the pot. I also make the somewhat large assumption that we get two cards to come, something I'll address in a moment. If all the above assumptions are correct we win 19% of the time. We likely spend at least 4 SB to find out and the pot will lay at least 17.40 SBs meaning we need to win about 18.6% of the time. Pretty marginal, and we've got a lot of assumptions up there. A small percentage of the time though we're going to make a runner runner straight, and some other percentage we'll have to fold to action from elsewhere in the hand. There's also the chance we'll get an absolutely free showdown after our flop agression, but that seems pretty unlikely. So, depending on where all those extra percentages end up falling decides whether it's a fold or not, right?

In looking at the above I think it's probably not as close as I thought, and it's probably a fold. I do think it's closer than perhaps people in this thread have made it out to be though.

-Tim

[five4suited]

1,460,151 games 0.328 secs 4,451,679 games/sec

Board: 2d 4h Qc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.0696 % 40.06% 03.01% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 44.1936 % 41.60% 02.60% { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 12.7367 % 09.07% 03.67% { AsKs }


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707,952 games 0.156 secs 4,538,153 games/sec

Board: 2d 4h Qc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.5090 % 45.22% 04.29% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 40.1887 % 37.35% 02.84% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3: 10.3023 % 05.43% 04.88% { AsKs }

I think the above demonstrates that I should shut up. At best you'll invest 4 SB's to win 19, assuming UTG folds the flop and MP1 calls the flop and folds the turn. I would think that when you start counting the times that we improve and lose and/or tie, plus all the times we'll fold the turn, it's not that close. But I'm not the one to ask.

[James.]

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1,460,151 games 0.328 secs 4,451,679 games/sec

Board: 2d 4h Qc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.0696 % 40.06% 03.01% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 44.1936 % 41.60% 02.60% { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 12.7367 % 09.07% 03.67% { AsKs }


---

707,952 games 0.156 secs 4,538,153 games/sec

Board: 2d 4h Qc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.5090 % 45.22% 04.29% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 40.1887 % 37.35% 02.84% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3: 10.3023 % 05.43% 04.88% { AsKs }

I think the above demonstrates that I should shut up.

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and i don't think it's close.

[Six]

Ok, ok, it's not all that close. Even those numbers don't give the whole picture though. If we get UTG to fold and MP calls it looks more like this:

29,700 games 0.015 secs 1,980,000 games/sec

Board: 2d 4h Qc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 17.1212 % 16.80% 00.32% { AsKs }
Hand 2: 82.8788 % 82.56% 00.32% { TT+, AQs, AQo }

The big question becomes how often does this happen, and how often do we get an absolutely free showdown if it does. Not enough, I'd wager, and it's not all that close given how many assumptions we're making. You could quantify it, but I think we may have already spent enough time with this one.

-Tim

[Erik W]

I hate a raise.
We all know that trying to get free cards from overagressive players will be doomed.
In the heat of the battle I'll probably call and fold to further action on the flop.

When analyzing the hand I think there are better battles to fight and I'll fold especially with this weak drawing hand against squashed between 2 overagressive players.

[HighOctane]

If UTG+2 is agressive, then a fold is in order. Even if you raise, UTG+2 will be getting 8:1 and it might get re-raised by MP1. If UTG+2 is passive, then take one off since he will probably call which means you effectively get 15:1 from the pot to see the turn.

[nivaman]

i would fold (since its only a small mistake) and go for the porn...

[acesovercole]

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i hate to fold with the size of this pot, but i hate to just call even more, so i would raise by proccess of elimination without any logical math or game theory and probably lose a lot of money being a [censored] on further streets. but thats just me.

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A donkey?

[Xhad]

IMO MP3's aggression factor looks more like fit-or-fold TAG than LAG. I see guys like this at the stars 3/6 or 5/10 all the time; they get that 5 AF by overplaying bad top pairs and ludicrous amounts of bet-folding. Terrible idea raising these guys, you may get to 4 bets even if no one has better than KQ.

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Another problem is that the strength of his hand is pretty vague.

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For this reason I often cold-call 3 in this spot to see what UTG will do. Is that horrible?