incorrect baseball lines

twistedbeats · #1 03-26-2007, 08:45 AM

let us say that there is a betting line team a -1.5 points vs team b. and we know that team b should be at -3.5 points. what percent advantage does that translate to?

whipsaw · #2 03-26-2007, 08:49 AM

baseball doesn't have "points." I honestly don't know what you're talking about.

ImNew · #3 03-26-2007, 08:56 AM

I guess OP might be talking about alternate runline.

whipsaw · #4 03-26-2007, 08:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I guess OP might be talking about alternate runline.

[/ QUOTE ]

a 3.5 run line? now that's degen

twistedbeats · #5 03-26-2007, 09:38 AM

all the sports books i use always have run lines, but if that's not the norm, sure, let's rephrase the question.

if team is listed as -135, and team b is listed as +125, how do we translate those into odds of winning?

or the point total. if the book has the total listed at 7.5, and we know the total should be 10, what is our ev there?

rush66 · #6 03-26-2007, 09:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
all the sports books i use always have run lines, but if that's not the norm, sure, let's rephrase the question.

if team is listed as -135, and team b is listed as +125, how do we translate those into odds of winning?

or the point total. if the book has the total listed at 7.5, and we know the total should be 10, what is our ev there?

[/ QUOTE ]

To translate -135 and +125. Go to www.sportsbookpal.com and go to misc calcluators and its in there.

As far as EV, you may need the experts for that one.

I think saying incorrect baseball lines in the title is a little deceiving. Aren't you just asking how to calculate the EV based on lines you have created?

MicroBob · #7 03-26-2007, 10:23 AM

I don't know much about baseball handicapping, but.....

if you have a team as 3.5 runs better than another (and the actual run-line is 1.5) then you probably need to be re-evaluating your handicapping process.

Doesn't seem this would come up very often (ever?).
Same for a total run-line of 7.5 that you think should be a 10.

tippy · #8 03-26-2007, 12:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
all the sports books i use always have run lines, but if that's not the norm, sure, let's rephrase the question.

if team is listed as -135, and team b is listed as +125, how do we translate those into odds of winning?

or the point total. if the book has the total listed at 7.5, and we know the total should be 10, what is our ev there?

[/ QUOTE ]

At -135, you would have to win about 57.5% to break even. On the dog of +125, the break even is about 44.5 %.

As for the totals, they are mostly your standard 11-10 betting odds. So about 53% to break even. Often you will find maybe up to -130 when the book doesn't want to move the total for fear of getting middled or exposed. As another poster said, very rarely will a total be off 3.5 runs. The guys who set the lines are mostly accurate to within 1/2 run.