99 OOP vs PF raise and cold callers

[HouseCalls]

Early in the game - no reads.

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
8 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8.5SB, 4 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5.25BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: 1BB returned to UTG+1.

Results:
Final pot: 5.25BB

Obviously this is putrid.... If I played it again I'd play it different but I want to see what you guys would do before I say how I would change my play.

Blast Away... (hey at least its not AA [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])

[Gib]

My default plan would be to c/r flop &amp; go from there,

Why the turn fold?

[tyler_cracker]

HouseFolds,

what the balls? grow a pair!

love,
tyler

[HouseCalls]

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
Uh yeah..... so I ah.... well I ah.... well I was ah reviewing some hands I had played and I ah camme across this and welll ah.... yeah

[Str8Fish]

Edit to add that I didn't look really at the flop... I'm looking specifically at the fold.

You're either calling down or you're folding the turn ui. A 7 or a 9 on the turn would have been sweet. We'd expect someone in UTG+1 to be raising a tighter range, so I'd expect AJ+(16*3=48), KQ(16), KJs(4), 99+(6*5+1=31). So we have 68 unpaired overs and 30 paired cards that beat us. 68/(68+30) = 69%... so 31% of the time we're ahead here. We can probably reduce this, since it is hard to put him on overs when he bets the turn as well. A call-down would cost 2BB to win 7.25BB = 27.6% of your money into the pot. A very rough estimate of 31% compared to the pot odds of 27.6%... most likely your hand odds are less than 27.6% since he bet the turn. If he had checked, no doubt you'd be ahead of his range.

The fold is fine.

[Jaran]

Another line to think about besides the c/r on the flop (I prefer this BTW), especially since it's hu before you act, is to call the flop bet and donk the turn.

-Jaran

[HouseCalls]

Nice stuff Str8 - I actually did feel like I was behind here most of the time.

For the record I think raising the flop here narrows his range a ton and makes the turn call or fold much clearer.

[tyler_cracker]

good maths, str8. however, if i am in villain's spot, i am betting ui overcards 99% of the time.

[lstephen666]

* grunch *

Calling preflop seems fine to me. I don't think the field is being reduced.

I lead out on the flop and 3-bet if raised, I think it is likely that you have the best hand here. If UTG+1 wants to cap I'm calling, but c/f the turn UI.

Failing UTG+1 wanting to cap on the flop, I'd value bet the turn, convinced that the overpair is still good. Calling down if I'm raised.

If UTG+1 is still around on the river following the plays above I c/c the river.

[Buzz-cp]

easy flop c/r. you know that.