Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!

[niss]

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On the year, Arizona has been in 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 situations (similar to what they were in on the last play of regulation) 18 times; they successfully convered 16/18 times.

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Are you suggesting that a 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 from the 1 yard line is the same as a 3rd or 4th and 1 from anywhere else on the field?

[MicroBob]

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On the year, Arizona has been in 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 situations (similar to what they were in on the last play of regulation) 18 times; they successfully convered 16/18 times.

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Are you suggesting that a 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 from the 1 yard line is the same as a 3rd or 4th and 1 from anywhere else on the field?

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That's exactly what I was thinking.
This isn't even close to correct and shows why people who try to use numbers but don't really think about the game itself can often-times be WAY in the wrong.

In a regular 3rd and 1 from the 50 or whatever your defensive alignment is MUCH different than it is on a goal-line stand on the 1.
Mostly it has to do with your defense needing to defend against big yardage too. Secondary needs to follow some guy who is breaking 20+ yards downfield.

On the 4th and goal on the 1 obviously everything is far more packed in and the situation is much different.
Converting 16 of 18 times on 3rd and 1 from elsewhere on the field really has very little to do with the goal-line situation or decision.

[Greeksquared]

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On the year, Arizona has been in 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 situations (similar to what they were in on the last play of regulation) 18 times; they successfully convered 16/18 times.

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Are you suggesting that a 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 from the 1 yard line is the same as a 3rd or 4th and 1 from anywhere else on the field?

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It surely is different and thats why I quoted a number around 75% as their "true" success rate, though I still think this is conservative.

[vhawk01]

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On the year, Arizona has been in 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 situations (similar to what they were in on the last play of regulation) 18 times; they successfully convered 16/18 times.

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Are you suggesting that a 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 from the 1 yard line is the same as a 3rd or 4th and 1 from anywhere else on the field?

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If you are the Minnesota Vikings or maybe like the Miami Dolphins or a few other teams, pretty much yeah. If you have Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, pretty much no.

But even still, they were 16/18, so discount that as much as you think is appropriate, its still a lot better than a coinflip.

[MicroBob]

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If you are the Minnesota Vikings or maybe like the Miami Dolphins or a few other teams, pretty much yeah.

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no way.
3rd and 1 especially or even 4th and 1 from the 50 is different than from the 1 no matter what team it is.

[vhawk01]

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If you are the Minnesota Vikings or maybe like the Miami Dolphins or a few other teams, pretty much yeah.

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no way.
3rd and 1 especially or even 4th and 1 from the 50 is different than from the 1 no matter what team it is.

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Ugh, of course its different. Now show me how its IMPORTANTLY different. The Vikings are pretty much never, ever, ever running some kind of play action or weirdo pass play. They are lining up and running it. Is it POSSIBLE they will make use of the extra 40 yards? Sure. But its such a tiny chance it doesnt impact the conversion percentage in any meaningful way.

At least thats my opinion. I see absolutely no reason to think that it is MATERIALLY different where on the field teams like the Vikings are running their 4th and 1's.