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#1
03-19-2007, 01:29 PM
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LOL, Donkaments.
I was reading a thread on cr and MTTs when I came across this quote:
[ QUOTE ] I like his comment about the top places are reserved for the luckiest... because I agree [/ QUOTE ] I believe that this is completely true. The variance and luck factor in tournaments is so high that I don't think it is possible to ever have a meaningful sample size. If you played several thousand $100rs on PokerStars, that would probably be enough- but for a tournament with 2000+ players, no one has actually played enough times to realize their win rate except by pure chance. The guys who you hear about winning the Stars Sunday million twice, or going on a huge tourney rush, some of the time might be skilled players- but have to be so insanely lucky to pull it off that the skill factor isn't particularly meaningful. You see huge donkeys win a WCOOP one year and then 5 100rs and 2 200rs and 3 more big scores.. it seems IMPOSSIBLE for them to suck at poker or even suck at MTTs- but then they swing down $100k playing online tournaments. Its very possible and happens all the time. Tournaments are still a reliable source of income- A very good player playing 10+ tournaments a day is going to show a profit almost every month. But, the profit is insigificant compared to the big Sunday tournaments and huge live tourneys, where one skilled and/or very lucky player can win several months worth of profit just by running good. I would say I'm one of the best online MTTers period, and I know many would agree. I have 780k ish in profit in online MTTs over about 2500 entered. Strassa2 won a SINGLE tournament for 440k. The guy who won the WCOOP last year won over a million dollars. Every couple weeks someone wins a million dollars in a live tourney. In the tournaments I've played, I've won dozens and dozens of $100 buy in tourneys or $11 to $33 rebuys. I've made the final 3 tables or better of at least 30 tournaments with $40k+ for first, and with no scores over $100k I can tell you that if I had never played a single MTT other than $100rs and $200+ Sunday/huge field tourneys I would have kept 74% of my profit and reduced volume by eighty percent. And, as ridiculous as this sounds, I've ran terribly bad in tournaments with huge prize pools. If you are still learning poker and want to seriously pursue tournaments to build a bankroll, its a great idea. I understand that the majority of the players on this forum fit this description. But, if you are a pro player who is actually good at poker, has a bankroll, and wants to make as much money as possible, you're wasting your time. Play really big buy in/field tourneys and hope to run lucky and win big, because the other 90% of the tourneys you enter only exist to make you feel better about the variance of the tournaments that matter. 
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#2
03-19-2007, 01:52 PM
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Re: LOL, Donkaments.
[ QUOTE ]
If you are still learning poker and want to seriously pursue tournaments to build a bankroll, its a great idea. I understand that the majority of the players on this forum fit this description. But, if you are a pro player who is actually good at poker, has a bankroll, and wants to make as much money as possible, you're wasting your time. Play really big buy in/field tourneys and hope to run lucky and win big, because the other 90% of the tourneys you enter only exist to make you feel better about the variance of the tournaments that matter. [/ QUOTE ] nice post
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#3
03-19-2007, 01:57 PM
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Re: LOL, Donkaments.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If you are still learning poker and want to seriously pursue tournaments to build a bankroll, its a great idea. I understand that the majority of the players on this forum fit this description. But, if you are a pro player who is actually good at poker, has a bankroll, and wants to make as much money as possible, you're wasting your time. Play really big buy in/field tourneys and hope to run lucky and win big, because the other 90% of the tourneys you enter only exist to make you feel better about the variance of the tournaments that matter. [/ QUOTE ] nice post [/ QUOTE ] Jeff, What about people that are making an hourly of less than 250$ playing cash games. Is it more profitable to play mtt's then? I am looking to get better at mtt's to broaden my knowledge of poker. Which mtt's should someone like myself be playing?
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#4
03-19-2007, 02:01 PM
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Re: LOL, Donkaments.
A lot of online MTTers don't really consider the absolutely enormous effect that field size and payout structure have on ROI.
I mean... it's very well known by STTers that in a 9 person tournament basically the best ROI that you could ever hope for in realistic circumstances is around 20%. Compare that to the 150%ish ROI that some of the best MTTers have over large samples Rizen's ROI over a big sample, and it's pretty clear that ROI goes up a ton with field size. In fact, a good player's ROI goes up exactly when variance goes down. As the payout structure gets steeper (higher variance), ROI goes down because the value of earning more chips decreases. As the field size increases (higher variance), ROI goes up basically just because there's more to win. So basically, increasing the field size of a tournament is equivalent to increasing the stakes. I mean a 25k BR really isn't enough to play the million, but is probably okay for the Sunday mulligan on FT. But, nobody's actually going to do this because it complicates things and MTTers don't have a huge selection of tourneys to play as is.
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#8
03-19-2007, 02:34 PM
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Re: LOL, Donkaments.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] STOP MAKING ME FEEL LIKE THE LUCKIEST IDIOT ON 2+2. [/ QUOTE ] you didnt feel that way already? [/ QUOTE ] Whether or not I do has no bearing on if it's true though.
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#10
03-19-2007, 02:38 PM
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Re: LOL, Donkaments.
10k bankroll for the million is probably correct if you're playing other tournaments that are within your bankroll. If they improve the structure, that honestly might be a good bankroll if it's the ONLY tournament you play.
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