NL25 - SC flops GSSFD. Now what?!

[jamez_kerry]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG+1 ($14.40)
<font color="#C00000">MP1 ($83.50)</font>
MP2 ($6.75)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($25)</font>
CO ($31.05)
Button ($4.65)
SB ($26.65)
BB ($45.50)
UTG ($9.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $1.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1.25, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Flop: ($2.85) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero???</font>


Ok so villain is 39/22/1.2 for approx 160 hands and I've pegged him as a bit of a fish. My question is how would you play this hand assuming his flop raise means we can put him on one of the following hands:
A) a set
B) an overpair
C) a straight or flush draw like myself

He lucked out on me a few hand previous calling my flop raise with bottom pair and hitting trips on the turn so my read is that if he most likely had either a set or big pair.

[lexxor]

where is the oesfd? i only see a non-nut flushdraw and a gutshot.

a) i call - youre getting 3:1 against 88-77, 44
b) i shove - its a coinflip against 99+
c) i shove - I took this for his range: A2s+,KhQh,T9s,T9o - youre a favorite against his range

[bozzer]

a shove is not a bad play but consider that against this opp you have lower FE than usual + higher implied odds -&gt; call. plus you are in position. I'm not saying calling is better, but you should lean more towards calling in this situation than in others. (sorry to sound like Sklansky.)

[jamez_kerry]

"where is the oesfd? i only see a non-nut flushdraw and a gutshot."

My bad, a GSSFD :-P

[lexxor]

One of my leaks is to play without stats, maybe you can play different against him. But on an unknown my suggest is pretty standard, right?

[jamez_kerry]

[ QUOTE ]
a shove is not a bad play but consider that against this opp you have lower FE than usual + higher implied odds -&gt; call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes this makes sense and I think this is a leak in my game i.e. I try to make semi-bluffs against loose players. I think against a good TAG player I could get them to fold an overpair but not against a LAG.

[Genz]

Anybody fancy taking a free card on the flop? If he called you with bottom pair, he will call you with any two broadways here. Add the possibility of domination and I like the idea of not growing a big pot with a draw against a donkish villain who we can take money from on later streets. On this limit, I tend not to get into betting wars with worse players without the goods, because you have so little FE.
As played, I prefer to call and not push. It is very unlikely that OP has the best hand here and there is a possibility that he is drawing mostly to the gutshot. It is unlikely, but nevertheless villain is unlikely to fold and with 13 outs you are 50:50 to win the hand and there is very little dead money in the pot that makes the play very profitable.