Paperchamp's NFL Week 8

[theclock]

This week picks:

Browns
Lions
Redskins

Browns -3 is prob BSP after reading various forums. I still like them though. Anyone know what the stats are on BSP's this year.

Lions have beaten the Bears already. It's Grossman less this time, but 5pts is good enough for me.

I love the Pats, they've made me some decent coin this year. But 16.5 is alot to give up. I'd take the points and a good coach anyday. (Gibbs is washed many would say. I disagree)

[RikkiDee]

I think if Gibbs runs the ball a lot and tries to control the clock and keep brady off the field, which is likely what he will try to do, the game could be close. Washington has no chance obviously, but with this strategy i think they may cover.

for the browns st louis game, does anyone know if stephen jackson is back from injury? I know St.Louis has looked horrible but with Jackson back they are definitely a threat to score points, and the browns d isn't really anything special.

[Gambler]

Jackson should play this week although he wasnt exactly lighting it up before he got hurt. Also they've lost 4 lineman for the year. Rams are a train wreck. Cleveland should have no problem scoring 28 points. So can the Rams muster 24-27?

[statsman]

How about the Indianapolis at Carolina game? Indy by less than a TD? You think that spread will go up? I have an automatic regression model running on my blog of the point spread and it predicts this to be opportunistic. Why so low?
Indianapolis -6

[Milo]

NE wins this weekend, but Gibbs keeps Brady off the field as much as he can, and the Skins pass defense is strong enough to hold Brady down a bit. Washington +17.

Specifically, NE 27-17.

[Jazzy3113]

Every week when I look at the spreads I see one game that jumps out at me like the linesmakers got it wrong. And almost always I lose alot.

This year I remember losing alot when Cincy lost to Clevland and if I remember correctly I got owned when KC upset San Deigo.

When I saw the Carolina game I got the same feeling. Indy is undefeated and is simply a well coached and talented team. They just went into Jacksonville and won handily in front of the nation. I myself predicted the line similar to the Giants/Dolphins line. Carolina has a banged up Drew Carr for godsakes.

After research I still feel indy at -6.5 is a great bet. But the fact I love it so much scares me from betting more than 1u.

Hopefully someone can weigh in and tell me why the colts are not giving up more than a touchdown.

This reminds me of last year when I lost all the money I made on Wongs in the Indy/Dallas game when the Colts for +1 and I thought they would win by 10. This feels like BSP pick to me, but I cant help not betting it.

[kdog]

Jazzy if there is such a thing as a 'sandwich game' in the NFL this is it. Indy played their biggest division rival on the road last week and next week is home to NE. In between is a trip to Carolina.

[bennies]

Second straight away game and coming off MNF. But yeah, I like the line for the Colts too.

[thelyingthief]

the line is too close for comfort, don't you think? indi scores higher on turf (which car. has), and less on the road (their strategy on the road is to march the field, speed the game up, protect their defense). indi controls the game, is rarely in danger of a loss, and still only wins by 2. given the imbalance between the leagues, the disparity between the clubs, etc., 6.5 is pretty sharp.

the greek has indy -4 for the half, but -1/2 for the first, third, and fourth quarters. there's value there, i think.

tlt

[LogistX]

The indy game raised red flags right away. The spread is deceivingly low. Everyone and their mother is betting indy. I think this line will move to 7 and I will begrudgingly bet Carolina.