Step 6 retardation

[JammyDodga]

Does no one think that he has trips here alot of the time?

Limp pre-flop UTG, then call. He maybe loose pre, but you have to give him a bit of credit for a hand UTG.

You said he's quite transparent, and plays too much pre. Does this really sound like a player who is doing this with a draw?

Also, players who play too much pre, but aren't complete fish, often wont get too tricky after the flop with marginal hands. As they'd be busto pretty quick if they did.

The big overpush on this flop tells me two things.

1. He has a strong hand
2. He is scared of a fourth heart.

I think a flush draw might try CRAI on this flop instead of open push.

Between 1 and two it pretty much narrows it down to a low made flush, trips or an overpair. Your only beating JJ,1010,QQ and they dont really fit his pre-flop play.

Am I way off here?

[Confused1]

[ QUOTE ]
You must call. You are ahead a very large % of the time and there was like 1400 in the pot before he acted. This event isn't nearly easy enough to pass up an edge like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate saying this because my heart tells me that Curtains is always right, but....

What hands do you put him on?

After that flop, I think the range is something like:
complete bluff (I put KQo, JKo and QTo into the hands for this), all AhTo+ (semibluff to the nuts), 22, 77+, made flushes w/o the ace that he doesn't fold pf (I took out everything not connected or below 68s). I guess you could argue that he might have just one big heart, like Q/K, but I didn't include that except where it happened to be in my 'bluff' hands.

vs that range, you are 50/50 exactly. If you tighten his range up (less bluffing) it's worse for you.

this fish plays 'very transparent' and it looks like your beat enough for me. I fold here and move my 28 bbs to the next hand. That whole 'risk/reward' thing.

And 'no', you aren't 90% to win this until you have half the chips and it's 4 handed.

edit: Just for clarification, I do think someone that knows supersat/sng strategy DOES have a meaningfull edge in this tournament, as the bubble approaches. Then moving on with 28bbs will be worth more than the 700cEV that I *could* be leaving on the table, if you believe that range (if you put 'the nuts' in his range or take out some of the more optimistic hands, you're really in pretty bad shape).

[Black Aces 518]

yeah but 50% equity plus pile of dead money = JACKPOT

[curtains]

The 90% figure is not even close to reality. Im assuming I have the chip amounts right and if we win this pot we like 3.5 the starting stack? If so it's completely absurd, since we need 6x the starting stack to have an average stack once the tournament is over.

[Bakes]

The last two bubbles I was in there with ~10k 6 handed and felt extremely comfortable. Neither of those times did I have the advantage of 10k at the 75/150 level, through careful 3betting and blind stealing, open shoving in spots where good players can only call me with AA, etc, I feel like I have a gigantic edge if I win this pot.

I didn't throw out that figure to be cocky or anything. People suck and its so easy to play non-showdown poker in the late stages.

[IWEARGOGGLES]

Bakes it still isn't 90%...

You're forgetting that you can't fold every hand and have 10k at 300/600........

...and that this isn't the 100r and you do have a chance to get coolered.

[Bakes]

Fold every hand? lol. more like raise every hand on the 3 satellite players' blinds, reraise a couple times. open 2.1x, jam over someones 2.1x, ez game.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold every hand? lol. more like raise every hand on the 3 satellite players' blinds, reraise a couple times. open 2.1x, jam over someones 2.1x, ez game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lots of people felt they had 50% ROI's at the $215s also because they played maybe 10-50 SNGs and everything seemed to go their way. Needless to say they weren't even close to correct, though I can understand why they held such misconceptions.

Using one or two tournaments where you easily qualified with less than 10k chips is meaningless and is the kind of small sample size thinking that had lots of people assuming they could do much better at SnGs than was possible. Do you realize that 90% means that if you get allin with AA against an equal stack, you are likely giving up EV? Also I assume that you started with 3k chips this tourney and not 1500? If it was 1500 then maybe the 90% figure is sort of close.

[PrayingMantis]

I also think that 90% is of course way exagerated. But anyway it's a call.

[IWEARGOGGLES]

16 out of 18 left! CMON!