SNG mid-game: opening on the small blind 15 BB

[Slim Pickens]

OK, I don't care if you want to make it t275 or t250 instead of t300. My usual raise is probably to t275 but let's pretend it doesn't matter and use t300 for simplicity. I'm looking for nine different answers to a-i, a-ii, a-iii, b-i, etc.

[JSH06]

ai) I make a standard raise to 300 or w/e. He'll call with a fair amount of hands you're ahead of preflop and when he re-shoves you can be pretty sure you're beat.
aii) I think I just shove against this player. He's going to be calling the standard raise too much & I don't really like playing a big pot OOP against him with these stacks, even if I'm usually ahead.
aiii) I push against this player as well. Even if he's calling a push wider than most players it's still +EV & I'm not too thrilled about raising & calling a shove when he re-steals.

bi) I standard raise for the same reasons as the A7 hand
Bii) I shove for same reasons as the KTs hand
biii) I shove for same reasons as KTs hand. I also don't think we can call a re-shove against this player if we standard raise, unless he is an absolute maniac.

ci)I standard raise for the same reasons as the other 2 hands
cii) I shove for the same reasons as the other 2 hands. I also think that completing is probably better than standard raising against this player.
ciii) I shove for the same reasons as the other 2 hands. I also think that completing is probably better than standard raising against this player.

[JacJacAtk]

Can't we just do this (or part of it, anyway) as a math problem? Or, am I missing some bigger picture here?

Shoving in all 9 cases is unexploitable. If there's a mathematical case to be made that it's more profitable to play it differently (as before, I think you might be able to make that case for players 1 and 3), can someone just run some postulated numbers and see what would happen?

And, yes, I'm too busy/lazy to do it right now.

[Slim Pickens]

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Can't we just do this (or part of it, anyway) as a math problem? Or, am I missing some bigger picture here?

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That's exactly where I'm going with this. I'm even going to make a graph. I make a lot of graphs.

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Shoving in all 9 cases is unexploitable.

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Yes. That was part of the point. It should be +$EV to shove all of these against any of the opponents I described, and pretty much all opponents in general.

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If there's a mathematical case to be made that it's more profitable to play it differently (as before, I think you might be able to make that case for players 1 and 3), can someone just run some postulated numbers and see what would happen?

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Ding ding ding!

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And, yes, I'm too busy/lazy to do it right now.

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No worries. I've actually got a really nice test case already done but it's 6-max, so I have to do it again for this one. I'll post it whenever I stop being busy/lazy.

[jukofyork]

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Can't we just do this (or part of it, anyway) as a math problem? Or, am I missing some bigger picture here?

Shoving in all 9 cases is unexploitable. If there's a mathematical case to be made that it's more profitable to play it differently (as before, I think you might be able to make that case for players 1 and 3), can someone just run some postulated numbers and see what would happen?

And, yes, I'm too busy/lazy to do it right now.

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Even though they are all unexploitable when considering the current hand in a vacuum, there may be good reasons for just folding:

a) You have a significant advantage against your opponents and the risk of busting combined with expected future EV gains might make the push -EV (see this post).

b) An "early" 15BB push might get noticed by your opponent(s) and cause them to call wider vs your future pushes. This is especially true if called and you have to show down a 'non-premium' hand (ie: an "image killer"). Taking a tiny (0.1% too 0.3%) unexploitable push now could end up costing you many times more on your later pushes and thus also make the the push -EV.

Both (a) and (b) can be accounted for by choosing a suitable threshold (minimum edge), but this threshold must also take into account the likely advantage (if any) you will have vs your opponents if you double up... Choosing a suitable threshold is the really hard part.

Juk [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[rakemeplz]

This is beyond me, I'd rather just shove a7o then k10s, I'm pretty sure about that.

[BradleyT]

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b) An "early" 15BB push might get noticed by your opponent(s) and cause them to call wider vs your future pushes. This is especially true if called and you have to show down a 'non-premium' hand (ie: an "image killer"). Taking a tiny (0.1% too 0.3%) unexploitable push now could end up costing you many times more on your later pushes and thus also make the the push -EV.

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For your image to 'be killed' your opponents would have to see your hand which means you won the hand (or maybe you tied). So I don't really think you're costing yourself "many times more". You move up to a comfort zone spot where you have the majority of the table covered. They will still fear your pushes, plus losing cannot knock you out.

[JacJacAtk]

Yeah, when you get "caught" here, you're either gone, or doubled up and far more dangerous.

Plus, to the extent any one actually pays attention to your image, none of these hands is especially ugly looking in an OOP BvB push. It's not like you're shoving KTs UTG, or 72o from the SB with 15BB.

[JoeSchmo]

None of the hands mentioned in the OP would be image killers for most opponents.

[jukofyork]

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b) An "early" 15BB push might get noticed by your opponent(s) and cause them to call wider vs your future pushes. This is especially true if called and you have to show down a 'non-premium' hand (ie: an "image killer"). Taking a tiny (0.1% too 0.3%) unexploitable push now could end up costing you many times more on your later pushes and thus also make the the push -EV.

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For your image to 'be killed' your opponents would have to see your hand which means you won the hand (or maybe you tied). So I don't really think you're costing yourself "many times more". You move up to a comfort zone spot where you have the majority of the table covered. They will still fear your pushes, plus losing cannot knock you out.

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Yep, I did say "must also take into account the likely advantage (if any) you will have vs your opponents if you double up" and agree that after you double up you may be able to make up for the wider calling ranges with the more dominating stack.

I'm still fairly inclined to fold in alot of situations like this though for a few "image related" reasons:

1) I still think that passing up a 0.1%-0.3% edge here (even 0.5% in some cases) can keep a tighter image and let you get away with more exploitable "ATC pushes" with higher blinds (where a 5-10% wider calling range can be the difference between huge -EV and huge +EV).

2) If the donks see you push 15BB here and then a couple of hands later you get a monster and try to raise 2.5-3BB they might be less likely to pay you off.

3) It might cost me on other tables and/or in future games if a donk thinks I'm pushing too wide and then starts to spite call me more - I don't think it would occur to an average donk that these were unexploitable 15BB pushes (it's not obvious unless you look into it with SNGPT, etc) and if you start doing things that they don't do themselves I then think it sticks in their memory much more...

If I played against better players (who understood what I was doing) and/or my edge was less when we got into the <10BB range then I would (have to) take more of these pushes.

Juk [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]