how useful/novel would this software tool be?

McStinky · #1 08-30-2007, 08:48 AM

I am thinking about developing some software tools that could help a lot with some of the analysis that people try to do here, but I want to get a sense of how useful people really think it would be or if there is anything else out there like it.

What I have noticed is that there are a lot of tricky situations that come up where you have a decent read on your opponent, but it is still not clear what to do. For example, you have an overpair like JJ in position on the turn and your opponent has been betting into you. You are not sure whether to raise him all in, call him down, or fold. Well, suppose you could determine the following parameters: probability I am beat right now, how many outs I have if I am beat, how many outs he has if I am ahead, how many of those out I will be able to fold to on the river, probability he will bluff if he misses his outs, size of his bluff if he bluffs, effective stack sizes. Then you can plug those into a formula and you will know exactly what you should do. I wrote the code for this and I am already discovering some cool stuff.

There are some other situations I have been thinking about. For example, being out of position on the river with a decent hand and not sure whether to lead out, check-call, or check-fold. Or having a huge draw on the flop and not sure whether to push all in or see the next card. Both of these can be boiled down to formulas a lot of the time.

Can anyone think of other situations like this? How useful do you think this tool would be? A lot of hands would need to be simplified to be plugged into a tool like this, but that seems OK. Even if you can't solve very specific hand exactly, it should allow you to get a better feel for the mathematical landscape of the game.

This could be thought of as a complement to Pokerstove. With Pokerstove, you are dealing with exact ranges of hands instead of abstract situations. But it is limited in the sense that you assume you are just going to go all in with you hand against their range and see what happens. Maybe this could be combined with Pokerstove somehow.

JackAll · #2 08-30-2007, 11:13 AM

How exactly do you make up villains hand range? Each villain type has a different range on each board. How do you deal with that?

McStinky · #3 08-30-2007, 11:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
How exactly do you make up villains hand range? Each villain type has a different range. How do you deal with that?

[/ QUOTE ]

You make up their range based on your read of them. I play against a lot of predictable opponents, and I often have a good idea of their range and how they will react to certain bets/cards. Despite this, I don't always know the mathematically correct answer because there are too many parameters in the equation. I am just looking to build tools for solving the most common equations, but yeah they will all require a read on the other player.

McStinky · #4 08-30-2007, 11:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How exactly do you make up villains hand range? Each villain type has a different range. How do you deal with that?

[/ QUOTE ]

You make up their range based on your read of them. I play against a lot of predictable opponents, and I often have a good idea of their range and how they will react to certain bets/cards. Despite this, I don't always know the mathematically correct answer because there are too many parameters in the equation. I am just looking to build tools for solving the most common equations, but yeah they will all require a read on the other player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I take that back. In some situations it is possible to actually compute the Nash equilibrium strategy (i.e. the best course of action given that your opponent will play perfectly from this point on). But the algorithms for this are more complicated and I think this would be less practically useful. Also, you still need an opponent range for this, but don't need a read on how they will play after this point.

McStinky · #5 08-30-2007, 11:28 AM

Here is an example of using my tool. It is the turn and there is 1 in the pot, and your opponent bets 1. You have position on him. You need to decide whether to raise all in, or to call down. You have an overpair and it is a drawy board. You plug in the following parameters:

probability I am beat now = 0.25
my outs if I am beat = 2
his outs if I am ahead = 9
his outs that I will be able to get away from on river = 6
probability he will bluff if he misses = 0.4
his bluff size if he does bluff = 2
effective stack sizes = 4

EV of raising all in = 0.61
EV of calling down = 0.40

So in this case it is better to raise the turn. But now suppose you know he will always bluff if he misses. Then,

EV of raising all in = 0.61
EV of calling down = 1.12

So you should call him down with your overpair.

Hince · #6 08-30-2007, 11:33 AM

Your parameters seem a bit off, but I think a piece of software like this could be useful when analysing play after a session.

The actual use of it during a hand may be difficult with the small time bank allowed in online poker.

McStinky · #7 08-30-2007, 11:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Your parameters seem a bit off, but I think a piece of software like this could be useful when analysing play after a session.

The actual use of it during a hand may be difficult with the small time bank allowed in online poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I meant it for use after the session. The idea is to push enough hands through it that you eventually get a better feel for the numbers during actual play.

JackAll · #8 08-31-2007, 02:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How exactly do you make up villains hand range? Each villain type has a different range. How do you deal with that?

[/ QUOTE ]

You make up their range based on your read of them. I play against a lot of predictable opponents, and I often have a good idea of their range and how they will react to certain bets/cards. Despite this, I don't always know the mathematically correct answer because there are too many parameters in the equation. I am just looking to build tools for solving the most common equations, but yeah they will all require a read on the other player.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is the problem. How can you know your equity in a computer program without putting in villains hand ranges and also the frequency of each of those ranges verse your hand.

Without that, you know nothing of your equity mathematically.