Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Tournament Poker > MTT Strategy

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 09-15-2007, 07:11 AM
LearnedfromTV LearnedfromTV is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Coaching
Posts: 5,914
Default To cbet or not to cbet

So I've seen a handful of posts in here about cbetting, and I know that figuring out whether or not to cbet, and how much to bet, especially in lategame situations, can be tricky. Here is a hand I played in the wcoop 215 6 max second chance. I guess I could have posted it in hsmtt but I thought it would be better here. It's the kind of decision that people tend to skip over without really thinking it through.

We're in the money, 84 got paid, I'm something like 25/35 when this hand goes down.

SB is decent, which means I know he's good enough to be playing a reasonable range, but I don't know whether or not that range is as tight as it probably should be, or if it includes stuff like JT. He has not flatted OOP very often, maybe three or four times in the past hour; this is probably the first time he's done it from the SB rather than the BB. (but note that if he were going to, albeit with a somewhat limited range, this is the ideal stack size situation for it as an alternative to 3betting). BB is relatively new to table, but has been aggressive and a little erratic; he moved here with 18k, shoved his way to 23 or something, then doubled up by reshoving JTo and getting there v KQ. Obviously he's calling fairly wide given the odds laid by my smallish raise and the Sb's call.

So both of them have jacks and pairs in their range (but plenty of other stuff too). Don't overrate how much my reads on them mean - this hand and hands like it are mostly about the board texture, my hand, their preflop ranges, and a set of generic responses that most opponents take with most hands. (e.g. No "Oh BB's aggressive so do x"; BB having shoved a few hands and then restole once is like 5% of what matters in this hand - the opponent read stuff that *really* matters is stuff that's hard to know, like "how many hands does he check-call the flop with but fold to a turn shove?").

So, after all the build up. Do you bet?

If yes: Why are you betting? How much do you bet (and what does that betsize accomplish)? What are you planning to do on the turn if called?

Are there any hands you wouldn't bet? (Assume your range is like 75% standard "good hands" i.e. pairs, big aces, kq, kj; 15% suited connector type crap (i.e. 97s which is great if we're deep but here raising that instead of 72o basically a randomizer); 10% "[censored] it i feel like raising this time."

A secondary question which is obviously very relevant: how often (that is, with what percentage of their preflop range) is one of them checkraising me?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1500 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB (t78970)
BB (t56090)
Hero (t28392)
MP (t100940)
Button (t13615)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t3888</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls t3138, BB calls t2388.

Flop: (t10014) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks,
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 09-15-2007, 08:27 AM
levAA levAA is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Black Pearl
Posts: 1,202
Default Re: To cbet or not to cbet

First I think we should check the possible ranges of villains - specially of SB, who is more dangerous here i think.

I would set him on:
22-99,AT,AJ,AQ,KQ,KJ,QJ,JTs(?)

With: AJ,KJ,QJ,JT,33,77 he would consider a c/r - so as answer to your second question should be in 6/15 or 40%.

With: 88,99 he migh flat call your c-bet, as well as with something like KsQs.

So to answer your first question i would not c-bet here, but take the free-card a reorientate on the turn. maybe we get a possibility for a delayed c-bet here, maybe we draw one of our 2 out, or maybe things get just clearer.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 09-16-2007, 06:36 AM
LearnedfromTV LearnedfromTV is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Coaching
Posts: 5,914
Default Re: To cbet or not to cbet

Ok, I don't really care because I didn't post this for advice, and if no one's interested then w/e, but when the forum split happened a lot of people here were worried about hsmtters never posting here and/or the forum content being weaker.

I put a little bit of time into a detailed post about a subject a lot of novices screw up (or don't understand why they're doing what they're doing). I expected it'd generate discussion.

I was probably going to follow up a good discussion with a theory post.

Oh well.

(No insult implied to lev; just that one response does not = discussion)
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 09-16-2007, 12:09 PM
rsxpunk rsxpunk is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 273
Default Re: To cbet or not to cbet

without looking at the math i generally just check behind here in a 3 way pot, given any reasonable ranges i do not think we get two folds on the flop enough of the time here
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 09-16-2007, 12:13 PM
Dave D Dave D is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Suffolk Law School or Brookline
Posts: 2,886
Default Re: To cbet or not to cbet

What I do know for sure is that I hate hate hate this situation and really am not sure what to do here. Small pairs in EP late tourney are probably the weakest part of my game.

I think people usually say the fold 55 PF UTG, unless you think a raise is gonna take it down.

I think a cbet of like 5000 is
1. too much of your stack. I mean if you fold you've just put in 1/4 of your stack pre and post flop. I don't think that should be happening.

2. like always getting raised. I mean unless the table has been really tight and folded to c-bets a lot.

I think I just check/fold here because I didn't hit my set.

I think I also limp PF and just setmine. I think you're deep enough for the implied odds to still be there. I don't like your PF bet size because it just encourages callers getting good odds against your generally weak hand.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 09-16-2007, 01:57 PM
hagbard celine hagbard celine is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Shooting people who minraise
Posts: 253
Default Re: To cbet or not to cbet

I just typed a response, then deleted it because I wasn't really getting your question.

This is a great post because it takes the thinking away from "what are my cards vs. opponents cards" and into the late game realm of "how does my hand hold up against the ranges of two opponents who have called my UTG raise from the blinds given their stack sizes and the texture of the board and the fact that they both checked to me."

To answer your question, no I do not bet. I don't bet because I don't want to invest at least 25% of my stack turning my hand into a bluff.

If I were to bet and get CRed, I would fold. If I bet and get called, I think I might just get it in on the turn, but I would hate it because I think it screams, "Go away please!" -- which is why I would just check behind on the flop.

I check behind because, to answer your second question, I feel that a CR is highly likely if SB or BB hit that flop, and you are not doing well against anything that they decide to CR you with.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 09-16-2007, 03:30 PM
rsxpunk rsxpunk is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 273
Default Re: To cbet or not to cbet

dave limping in here is bad imo. I usually just fold pre in these spots because i dont want to put myself in such a marginal spot.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 09-16-2007, 06:18 PM
cheburashka cheburashka is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 374
Default Re: To cbet or not to cbet

OK, I'll contribute in the interest of discussion, even though I have no idea what I'm doing.

First, what might the villains have opened with?

If SB is 50BB deep, and he flat called rather than raised--he's not desperate to get it in, and he's not anxious to get you out. To me, that says he has a pretty good hand he wants to play, probably one that needs improvement. I would exclude lower SCs, as they suck to play OOP, and low PPs, because you're too short to pay off a set. Let's say 77-TT, A9s-AJs, ATo-AJo, KQ, QJs, JTs, T9s.

BB is looser, and he's getting almost 4:1, but he's still deep, and he must have some respect for a UTG raiser and a decent caller. So balancing it all out, let's give him the same range as SB.

Second, what do you need to C-Bet? I'm going to assume that you will get out if you are check-raised, and if you are flat called, you will be very unhappy if the turn is an 8 or higher (and reasonably unhappy if it's anything else other than a 5). So pretty much you have to take the pot now or it's gone. Standard C-Bets at 5.5/11 tend to average 2/3 of the pot, so you'd need both villains to fold 40% of the time to break even. That means your C-Bet would need to get each villain to fold ~60% of their hands, taking into account that they will be getting 1.5:1.

Of the range I've assigned the villains, you could probably A9-Ts, ATo, KQs, T9s, and maybe 88. The math here is far beyond my simple mind, but it doesn't look like a C-Bet makes sense if this analysis makes sense.

Of course, in the heat of the moment, I'd have to rely on rules of thumb, and one that I have is not to C-Bet into more than one player if there is a T or higher on the board, unless I have a really good read that tells me otherwise.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 09-16-2007, 07:41 PM
crunchh crunchh is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 98
Default Re: To cbet or not to cbet

because I really like your post and not because I know something about it I am willing to contribute

let me clarify i am part of those who as you say rightly often srew up cont bet

supposing your opponents pays you respect as a good and thinking player

given the range you stated they can put you on a big kiker J or over pair 1/3 of the time (roughthly)

I assume they know that you would hesitate to C bet with some of your holdings ie 22

so they have to think that if they have a Jack you will have them in kiker trouble or big trouble something like 40-50% of the time

with a 2/3 pot bet you pose them problem, they will see you as commited or nearly so they won t want to bluff you that often
they know it will be difficult to draw because they are likely to face an all in draw on trun if they don t hit there

you are hurting there stak if they loose it and worse you are back in the game

worse what they don t know is that actually you are not commited but within your range are a few flush draw which even if they have you beat they still could loose

so i am not sure that it is a clear check raise with a JT and I am not sure it is such a cristal clear call (but i am a bit timid)

I think if there range is as stated below 50%+ of the time at least the SB can t call

the BB being more looser will have a harder time hitting that flop and since he will be HU with you he won t feel too happy about his hand

5% of th time they call you catch a 5

after that it all depend on your table image, how much do they know you don t cbet all the time etc

but I would bet that flop knowing it will give them a hard time
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 09-16-2007, 09:49 PM
erc007 erc007 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 769
Default Re: To cbet or not to cbet

[ QUOTE ]
So I've seen a handful of posts in here about cbetting, and I know that figuring out whether or not to cbet, and how much to bet, especially in lategame situations, can be tricky. Here is a hand I played in the wcoop 215 6 max second chance. I guess I could have posted it in hsmtt but I thought it would be better here. It's the kind of decision that people tend to skip over without really thinking it through.

We're in the money, 84 got paid, I'm something like 25/35 when this hand goes down.

SB is decent, which means I know he's good enough to be playing a reasonable range, but I don't know whether or not that range is as tight as it probably should be, or if it includes stuff like JT. He has not flatted OOP very often, maybe three or four times in the past hour; this is probably the first time he's done it from the SB rather than the BB. (but note that if he were going to, albeit with a somewhat limited range, this is the ideal stack size situation for it as an alternative to 3betting). BB is relatively new to table, but has been aggressive and a little erratic; he moved here with 18k, shoved his way to 23 or something, then doubled up by reshoving JTo and getting there v KQ. Obviously he's calling fairly wide given the odds laid by my smallish raise and the Sb's call.

So both of them have jacks and pairs in their range (but plenty of other stuff too). Don't overrate how much my reads on them mean - this hand and hands like it are mostly about the board texture, my hand, their preflop ranges, and a set of generic responses that most opponents take with most hands. (e.g. No "Oh BB's aggressive so do x"; BB having shoved a few hands and then restole once is like 5% of what matters in this hand - the opponent read stuff that *really* matters is stuff that's hard to know, like "how many hands does he check-call the flop with but fold to a turn shove?").

So, after all the build up. Do you bet?

If yes: Why are you betting? How much do you bet (and what does that betsize accomplish)? What are you planning to do on the turn if called?

Are there any hands you wouldn't bet? (Assume your range is like 75% standard "good hands" i.e. pairs, big aces, kq, kj; 15% suited connector type crap (i.e. 97s which is great if we're deep but here raising that instead of 72o basically a randomizer); 10% "[censored] it i feel like raising this time."

A secondary question which is obviously very relevant: how often (that is, with what percentage of their preflop range) is one of them checkraising me?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1500 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB (t78970)
BB (t56090)
Hero (t28392)
MP (t100940)
Button (t13615)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t3888</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls t3138, BB calls t2388.

Flop: (t10014) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>SB checks, BB checks,

[/ QUOTE ]

1st of all...thx for posting here. Your posts are always very thought-provoking and rich in content.

In terms of your hand equity on this flop, it's obv that you have more (preflop) equity vs BB than SB. My problem with betting is twofold:

1. We're not ahead of both their ranges combined, and we need both of them to fold in order for a c-bet to be profitable here. I don't think that u can continue if you c-bet 5-7K and get called. Other than a 5, very few turn cards will improve your hand and the ones that do only add a gutshot.

2. Even if SB/or BB folds x% of his range that we are ahead of, this may be negated by the fact that they will c/r semi-bluff with FD/FD+gutshot, or call and improve on the turn.

I realize that checking behind almost concedes the hand, since it will be tough to rep any hands on the turn, but committing anymore of your stack is just too costly here.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:35 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.