Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Limit Texas Hold'em > Small Stakes Shorthanded

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 02-26-2007, 05:19 PM
SomethingClever SomethingClever is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Viva Robusto! (new 11/26)
Posts: 10,278
Default KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?

I open K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG, folded to SB (60/15 donk) who calls, unknown BB makes it 3, I make it 4, SB obv calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (12 SB)

SB leads, BB folds, Hero... calls down?

Further question: If I peel the flop, I obviously call any [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] turn. Does anyone peel the flop and fold any non[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or non K turn?

Or is calling all the way down best?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 02-26-2007, 05:26 PM
inferno inferno is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,402
Default Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?

I wouldnt fold
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 02-26-2007, 05:40 PM
MacGuyV MacGuyV is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: old school
Posts: 10,100
Default Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?

Is it weird that I don't ever remember being in this spot after 100,000+ hands?
I don't think calling down or folding right away are bad; I wouldn't peel & muck the turn though.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 02-26-2007, 05:46 PM
SomethingClever SomethingClever is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Viva Robusto! (new 11/26)
Posts: 10,278
Default Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?

[ QUOTE ]
Is it weird that I don't ever remember being in this spot after 100,000+ hands?
I don't think calling down or folding right away are bad; I wouldn't peel & muck the turn though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have 600,000 hands; feels like I've been in this spot for 498,000 of them.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 02-26-2007, 05:59 PM
jstill jstill is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: downtown portsmouth
Posts: 3,641
Default Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?

why isnt peel and fold UI in ur list of choices McGahee? not trying to be a wise ass at all just want to understand.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 02-26-2007, 06:14 PM
mewalrus mewalrus is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 21
Default Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?

I'd reraise...
If they just have aces and not 2 pair or trips it might buy you a free river but utg maybe not. It does buy info for 1/2 a big bet.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 02-26-2007, 07:00 PM
Heisenb3rg Heisenb3rg is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,733
Default Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?

As a default , especially against a 60/15 "donk" I think it's a definite call down.

Let's say your range here is
AK,AA,KK,QQ and BB's range is AJs, AQ+, KQs, 99+
Remove one ace and one nine from the distributions because it's on the board and the probability that ONE of you doesn't have an ace or 99 is.

You = 12 AK, 3 AA, 6 KK, 6 QQ therefore ~ 12/27 times you dont have an ace.

BB = 3 AJs, 4 KQs, 12 AK, 12 AQ, 3 AA, 6 KK, 6 QQ, 6 JJ, 6 TT, 3 99
~ 28/61 times BB doesnt have an ace

I don't want to go through the math of the card depdencies , so I'll assume indepence of distribution.
A little less (because of card removal effects ) than 288/1539 ,19% of the time neither of you will have an ace.

So If you guys fold your non ace hands
EV = P(!Ace)*(Potsize) - P(Ace)*(Bet)
= .19*12 - .81*1 = +1.47 SB

For an immediate profit of Almost a BB each time this scenario arises. This is much too high and exploitable. This was also considering a 0% equity which will often not be the case , for example when he's semi-bluffing or caught a peice of the board.

Therefore it cannot be correct to fold KK here against an unknown. Making it so you fold KK 0% on the flop, x% on the turn, and y% on the river, and call down AK to the river and raise it. This way he is indifferent to bluffing. This is probabily close to the optimal strategy. But as a default I'd rather just call down 100% until you get a read.

Against certain very tight/predictable opponents I'd peel 0 , 1 or 2 streets and fold but this is rare and requires a good read.

I like raising never.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 02-26-2007, 07:06 PM
SomethingClever SomethingClever is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Viva Robusto! (new 11/26)
Posts: 10,278
Default Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?

I have no way of knowing if your calculations are correct, but awesome analysis!


I called the flop, the turn came A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and I felt a lot better about my chances (and called), the river was a brick, he bet and I called again, he had 66.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 02-26-2007, 08:33 PM
MacGuyV MacGuyV is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: old school
Posts: 10,100
Default Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?

[ QUOTE ]
why isnt peel and fold UI in ur list of choices McGahee? not trying to be a wise ass at all just want to understand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't think an unknown (or anyone really) is going to check the turn. Besides, are you really going to fold the river the times you turn a heart?
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 02-26-2007, 09:51 PM
johnnyrocket johnnyrocket is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: 8 tabling and raising all donk bets
Posts: 3,679
Default Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?

i call down here 99% of the time against a 60/15, he could easily have a flush draw. Another option is raising the flop and folding to a 3 bet and betting down if just called. This could be costly tho and not the best play.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:24 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.