Basic implied odds checkup

[nomathsdoh]

Just need to make sure that the following implied odds calculation is correct if somebody would care to help.

150 in the pot on the flop. I have a flush draw villain has a set. 500 remain in our stacks. Villain bets 100. My implied odds of calling this bet assuming I can get it in 100% of the time on any turn are:

(if I hit my 8 outer on the turn I will win 77% of the time)

.77(150 + 500) - .23(500) = 385.5
making my implied odds 385.5 to 100 or 3.85 to 1.

Odds of hitting the 8 outer are 4.87 to 1

So this would be a losing call.

Is the above correct? Thanks in advance to anybody who is willing to do this one.

[jay_shark]

The probability you win is 9/47*0.77 ~ 14.74%

Your implied odds are 650:100 which means you need to win at least 1/7.5 ~ 13.33% .

Or , you win $650 , 14.74% of the time . You lose $100 , 85.26% of the time .

EV= 650*0.1474 - 100*0.8526 =$ 10.55 which is positive .

[Lion]

Can anybody refer me to a good link to learn these equations?

[nomathsdoh]

Jay, thanks for replying. However, we only have 8 outs not 9 ( ~13.1% when run through your calc there). Also, I don't see where you account for the 23% of the time we hit on the turn but lose our stack?

[TomCowley]

I think your math is right. However you have to know he has a set- if he has 2 pair and will stack off, then you win 650 90.5% and lose 500 9.5% for an expectation of 540 if you hit, which is plenty (5.4:1). It's easy to make a call that's wrong against his exact hand, but correct against his range.

[jay_shark]

Let me do this again with 8 outs .

650*0.131 -100*39/47 - 500*8/47*0.23 = -17.403 so it's negative EV .

Sorry , I screwed up the first time .

You lose $100 , 39 out of 47 times . You lose an additional 500 when you hit (8/47) times the probability you get outdrawn(0.23) .

[jogsxyz]

Don't worry about the exact computations.
Implied odds just imply that you will win
more than the real odds.
If the odds are say 3 to 1 against, even
if there's a little less than 3 to 1 in the
pot, you can still call.
But don't go overboard and expect opponent
to always pay off.

[nomathsdoh]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me do this again with 8 outs .

650*0.131 -100*39/47 - 500*8/47*0.23 = -17.403 so it's negative EV .

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the one I wanted. So easy but it just wasn't coming out properly when I was trying it. I think I was overcomplicating things.

I know that this wasn't a realistic situation. I just wanted to know how to work it out. I can use this to work out some rules of thumb for this kind of situation.

Thanks for the help.

[Gonso]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't worry about the exact computations.
Implied odds just imply that you will win
more than the real odds.
If the odds are say 3 to 1 against, even
if there's a little less than 3 to 1 in the
pot, you can still call.
But don't go overboard and expect opponent
to always pay off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, if you're a newer player reading this thread, don't let all these calculations scare you. With time you'll get better at making these approximations, especially if you're in the habit of pokerstoving hands when you're finished playing for the day.