Quantifying your reads

[Fallen Hero]

I'm very confident in my reads, I think I've spent enough time playing these limits that I can trust my feel for a certain situation to a point where my lines in some hands may seem complete non-sense to most good players (things like inducing bluffs then folding, stuff like that).
The problem I've been having lately is that I started to wonder how most of us work on quantifying this, for example what are good enough odds for you to say "I can't be this sure I'm beat". Up until now I'd just tend to err on the side of calling (since being wrong would be a smaller mistake) but quite frankly I don't think the results are very positive (aka when calling against my read of the situation I don't think I've achieved those "only needs to be good X% of the time).

So, fellow 2+2ers, how do you generally approach these situations and do you think I'm just suffering from a severe case of selective memory.


PS: AJ feel free to lock if you feel this is too vague and won't generate meaningful discussion.

[djoyce003]

Actually this is a pretty good post and i was thinking of making a belated Pooh-Bah or Carpal tunnel post about this since I have never done one of those. I typically try to take really good notes on people that have strong tendencies to do crazy things.

First rule of reads - You have to apply any reads you have to the context and history of the hand....does it make sense what the villain is doing?

Example from the other day. I pick up queens in the BB. 4 limps to me, including the SB. I raise it 8xbb. Folds to SB (who is TAG). SB goes all in for 50bb's. Does that make sense? Could he have possibly gone for a limp-reraise with AA or KK here with only the BB left to act who is OOP for the rest of the hand? The answer is clearly no. He put me on the squeeze play and assumed I had garbage..I didn't, I called, and I stacked his completely dominated QJ. Whenever an opponent makes a play, does it make sense in the context of the hand

A couple of really valuable reads to have on villains.

Valuable read 1 - villains that overplay TPTK

One of my villain's notes is "plays TPTK like the nuts, even with it's TP of 9's. Raised and called all in with A9 on a 7889 threeflush board."

I've used that read to stack a particular villain at least 4 times.

Valuable read 2 - Plays way too agressively when there is a flush draw on the board.

These villains are great to flop big hands against in position because you never even have to bet or raise because you know they don't have the draw either. Example, you have pocket 7's in position. Villain raises, you call. Flop comes XX7 with 2 spades. Villain pots it, you call. Turn - blank, villain pushes, you call and stack his AA that he overplayed due to the draw-heavy board.

Valuable Read 3 - "total donkey calling station"

One of the best reads known to man. Do not semi-bluff these guys, do not threebet all in with a coin flip hand because they'll call, and you are only 50/50....try to catch your hand because they will call once you catch it too. They can't fold TP even on a straigthening flushing board. Value bet, value bet, value bet. I called a $20 turn bet against one of these guys into a $10 pot with a flush draw last week on a TJQK board. Rivered the flush, push overbet for $250 and he called with the ace hi straight.

Valueable read 4 - minbets draws

You've all seen these guys. They minbet into you and try to draw cheap, then they go ahead and call your big raise. I really have no idea what they are thinking...they know they can't pay full price to draw, which is why they bet small, but then they call a raise anyway. Punish these guys, and fold if any draws come home.

Valuable read 5 - minraises small pockets/SC's/suited aces preflop.

Some villains will typically minraise either small pockets, or sc's or suited aces preflop...they don't usually minraise all three, but lots of villains will minraise at least one of these. If you start getting action with a big hand on a ragged board or a board like 55K, you can generally figure they've got the trips with top kicker, or a set on a 852 board or something similar. It can save you money a lot of the time..or you can PUNISH them on a 55K board when you've got KK because you KNOW they've got A5.

Valuable read 6 - can't read boards and tell when he's counterfeited. Also, the converse "smart enough to know he just got counterfeited"

These villains are great. Flop comes 228, and they have 89. You bet with Jacks and they call. Turn 9...you bet they raise, you reraise, and villain has top 2...can't fold right, even though TT+ kills them, which you represent. They don't realize your 2 pair beats them. This is a great read to have. Good LAGS typically realize this but still can't fold. Example from above 982 though, you bet and get raised...think you might be behind to 98 so you flat call. Turn comes a 2, and now villain checks.....now you've got him. Start value-betting, he'll probably call.


Valuable read 7 - minbet-threebets monsters

These are great too because they let you get away cheap. Villain leads into you with a minbet on a draw heavy board knowing you'll raise. You oblige, and now the threebets all in with a set...you easily dump your hand (provided you have this read). Villain doesn't realize he could have potted it and gotten a much bigger raise out of you but hey...his bad play is why you are here.

Other thoughts - Absent reads I'm typically very reluctant to call large river bets with good, but not unbeatable hands. I've gotten burned by this lately with things like K high flushes facing pushes and losing to the nut flush, things like that. Villains typically just don't bet rivers huge without the nuts or near nuts. If a villain is capable of bluffing the river with missed draws and things of that nature, then calling is standard, but I have to have a read to make me do this and it has to be a very good read.

[jetsetboy]

Very interesting question and answer. I'd like to read similar answers from other "big poster" about what kind of read they think are "valuable". I'm surprise on 1 point : I guess you use PT/PA and that's why you don't include the range of hands the vilain will limp/raise/call a raise/reraise with ? I try to take notes about that with respect to absolut position (EP/MP/LP/B) and relative position (OOP/IP).

To answer the original question of the OP, as far as i'm concerned I use odds. If I think i'm behind because of my read and I have to call 3:1 bet with no possible further bet I call (on the river with TPTK for exemple against a player which I think had just hit his flush on the river or has his set since the flop because he allways plays flush/set this way). I think it could be a good idea to "assess" the accuracy of the read by extracting data from PT. The problem I have is that it involves taking notes of every hand when you think you're behind about your read (and why you think you're behind)... I use a 2+n:1 ratio against more than 1 opponent (I need 4:1 against 2, 5:1 against 3...) I think this "strategy" is Ev- on the long term but it helps me to improve my reads (I'm new to poker) and it is not so expensive (10:1 is the ratio given in HOH for a good player right ?)

[Heine]

I really like "valuable read 6." I don't use that one nearly enough.

Great post.

[MrWookie]

Great post, man.

[Johan L]

I mostly rely on PT stats VP$IP/PFR/AF.
Guys with >50/X/X will have to pay about 100BB to see my AA.
In 6 max I found it more rewarding to call with small PP's and the 5/10 rule against guys like 20/3/X.
Against guys with ~30/7/>1, I try to reraise when they raise my C-bets on the right type of boards, no so much a matter of if I hit my flop or not.

To answear your question shortly, stats is my prime read. Good thread, great answear by djoyce003.

[mikechops]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually this is a pretty good post and i was thinking of making a belated Pooh-Bah or Carpal tunnel post about this since I have never done one of those. I typically try to take really good notes on people that have strong tendencies to do crazy things.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post but I like this part in particular. I'm too lazy to look it up in PT, but I'd guess about 50% of my profit comes from 10% of the players. Focusing your attention on these guys is important.

I used to review my big wins/losses at the end of a session. Lately, I have been importing my notes into PT, reviewing all the big pots and making notes on bonehead plays from other people.

[therockofgibraltar]

very good post! Thanks.

[djoyce003]

[ QUOTE ]
I really like "valuable read 6." I don't use that one nearly enough.

Great post.

[/ QUOTE ]

this one is great when you get raised on the flop with big pockets and play them passively in a WA/WB situation...then the river pairs the board and all of a sudden the dude checks....I'm always thinking there, "aha...i've got you now" If he's good and keeps firing it's an easy fold...and if he's bad...it's an easy call....maybe even a value raise spot.

[mudbuddha]

nh

i think these are better than poker tracker stats