2/4 FR online, UI AK vs. flop & turn donk bets

[Mitke]

<font color="blue">Villain is 23/0/0.5 after only 13 hands. He has once cold-called in MP with AQo after UTG limp + UTG+1 raise and called to the river UI on a raggy board 3-way. Once he completed from SB after two limpers from MP and BTN and folded on the flop. Second time he cold-called was on the BTN vs. UTG openraise with ATo. Raised and bet T high flop and board all the way.</font>

Flop raise was for free card with overcards, BDFD and two BDSDs.

Comments on both flop and turn most welcome. We have max 10 outs on the turn but what is your estimate for real outs?

Poker Stars Limit: $2/$4 10 players Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, 4 folds, MP2 calls <font color="aaaaaa">(6.5:1)</font>.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7.5SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls <font color="aaaaaa">(10.5:1)</font>.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5.75BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="blue"> Hero ?? </font>

[Bluffoon]

Id give you 3 overcard outs and another 3.5 or so for the straight. So say 7 and discount that strongly for the times you are drawing dead to a made flush. The most I can come up with is 5. I fold here.

[James.]

i would give us around 5 outs on the turn(3 clean gutter outs, 1.5 king outs and .5 ace out or vice versa with the A's and K's). so i would call and reevaluate on the river.

it's close, but i also think that's a very semibluff-happy turn card so the river goes check/check a good portion of the time.

[Mitke]

Thanks for replies.

For villain to be cold-calling twice earlier led me to believe he likes to play his own cards and doesn't think too much about what others have. -&gt; I think he has some sort of made hand here pretty often on the flop already, something along the lines of AT, (KT), 99, TT, JJ, (QQ,KK,AA not too likely).

I think that we indeed have outs to peel and if we improve have the option to call, b/c, or raise.


I assume that you think I wasn't out of line with my flop raise? I wouldn't have mind a fold or free card on the turn.

[Tugg]

I like the flop raise, but without a spade in my hand I fold the turn. If he does only play his own cards, then the Qs was a very bad card for you. Would he really bet 99 or JJ here with or without a spade, if so why didn't he 3 bet the flop. I only play live so take that into account, but in the best case he holds something like KQ,KT,AT with only 1 spade.The times he does hold that I don't think make up for the times your drawing dead or very slim.