200BB Set vs ? hand

[TheRempel]

Late in a session this hand came up. Villian is 27/15/3. No major reads except that I have seen him fire three barrels before when he raised preflop. He also likes to enter most of my pots. I was playing 45/25/4.

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $200
TheRempel: $1458
Button: $391.65
SB: $201.80
BB: $421

Pre-flop: (5 players) TheRempel is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">TheRempel raises to $7</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.


Flop: ($21) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">TheRempel bets $21</font>, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $84</font>, TheRempel calls.

Pretty standard. He's tight enough that I doubt very much he'll play a big pot with me if I raise without 44/33/56 but i think he'd raise this spot fairly wide, including some overpairs that he may figure to be best or have fold equity.

Turn: ($189) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $140</font>, TheRempel ?

This is the first time I'd seen him take this kind of line against the preflop raiser on what is a fairly dry board. I'd been running over the table for about three hours at this point and it felt to me like he was likely bluffing. The bet size on the turn is really weird. I would expect him to bet either more or less with the nuts since my range is wayyy behind 56xx. I'd often just call with 56 on this flop but I doubt he knows that since I've been very aggro.

Thoughts?

[jbird]

I think the turn bet is a hand like 5678 a ton. Once you call his flopraise, he's likely thinking you have 56xx and he's freerolling the higher straight, or he's getting value out of a set.

I see this line as the nuts far more than a bluff here.

Also, if he likes to fire 3 barrels, you are up against a tough unimproved river decision, and if you push here hes only calling you with the nuts in which case you miss out on the additional river value when he is bluffing and you guarantee the last of it to go in bad.

Tough spot. I fold.

[TheRempel]

He's going to have like $200 left in a $480 pot on the river so I don't see it as a tough river decision if I call the turn. I think there are only two ways to play it at this point; 1) Fold 2) Call and call the river.

I do think the bet sizing on the turn is very important. I didn't have a huge amount of history with him but that $140 bet just felt wrong.

[BadBenOni]

I was thinking it was push or fold.

If you think he is a wrongun you have to push, cant give a free card.

[TheRempel]

What are you worried about giving a free card against? If he's behind he has 4 outs at best.

[wazz]

He has 6 outs at best here if behind. I really like a call turn call/shove river line. I think this is bare blockers a lot.

[TheBjerre]

hmm.. i dont think many player are check raising this flop with an overpair.. I dont se many check raising with a set i this spot.. it looks very much like a st8.. I fold often on this flop.. turn is easy fold i think

/DB

[jbird]

i agree that if you call here you should probably call the river, but I still think its a fold./

[AlexKP]

@dbjerre

See stack, dont fold flop...

Turn is easy fold

[TheRempel]

Normally I agree the turn is a clear fold. I had one of those weird zen moments and was absolutely certain he was bluffing so I called the turn and the river when a harmless Q came off. He had QJ97. I'm not entirely sure he thought he was bluffing.