($27) Shortstacked on bubble, big stack in BB, trash hand

[taipan168]

Opp is LAGG, stats something like 37/33. I've shoved the last three times it's been folded to me in the SB. Can I ever not shove this one and open shove the next hand folded to me or do I not have a choice but to shove here (and hope to have two live cards)?

SNGPT says this is a +EV shove if opp calls tighter than about 45%, but I wonder whether this is one of those spots where ICM overvalues a short stack on the bubble (if I fold).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG (t3675)
Button (t1980)
Hero (t800)
BB (t7045)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 2.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ????

[Cadaver]

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Opp is LAGG, stats something like 37/33. I've shoved the last three times it's been folded to be in the SB.

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fold.

[taipan168]

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Opp is LAGG, stats something like 37/33. I've shoved the last three times it's been folded to be in the SB.

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fold.

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[ QUOTE ]
Cadaver
newbie


Reged: 31/03/2007
Posts: 26

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26 posts and he's already perfected the 2p2 one word reply.

[CheeseMoney]

Given your read I'd say its probably a very close fold. He's calling super wide here. I'd be shoving 85s here probably.

[typically]

I'd say he's calling with almost ATC if you are pushing the last three hands. I almost always throw this hand. Still have three more hands to double up on...

[taipan168]

Not sure if this is the right way to look at it, but since J7o is the average hand, say we fold our 82 soooted and this happens. Fold and shove the next hand UTG into three players?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t1980)
Hero (t700)
SB (t7145)
BB (t3675)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, 7.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero ????

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[Dhani]

You might as well, but only because we have less than 4 BB.

[Josem]

re: the first hand:

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SNGPT says this is a +EV shove if opp calls tighter than about 45%, but I wonder whether this is one of those spots where ICM overvalues a short stack on the bubble (if I fold).


[/ QUOTE ]

The 45% mark is J9o.

Do you think the villain calls your bet if he is dealt J9o? If he calls with J9o, you need to fold - if he folds J9o, you need to call.


Also, the discussion in this thread is retarded since it should be a discussion about opponent's range.

[Dr_Wonderful]

If you've shoved three times in a row against villain who is loose as it is, I'd guess he's calling top 75%. I bet he'd fold hands like 52 and 73, but probably call 95s or J2s.

[The Venetian]

I fold this because I think I can find a better spot.