33 and a draw vs. overpair (I think)

[manbearpig]

Villain is 31/16/1 over 60 hands or so. I have been dead and am running like 6/4/infinity over the same sample.

Is shoving spew? I thought if he had stats on me he could fold a lot of hands. And if not I have 9 outs probably.

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

MP ($32.50)
Button ($30.75)
SB ($11.80)
Hero ($24.65)
UTG ($26.30)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $0.75</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $0.65, Hero calls $0.50.

Flop: ($2.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $6</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $26.4 (All-In)</font>, MP calls $17.90.

Turn: ($52.80) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>
.

River: ($52.80) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $52.80

[NeverScurred]

Assuming anyone has stats on you is stupid, much less someone running 31/16/1. He's probably playing nothing other than his cards.

Both of your raises were spew imo. I would have just called the flop minbet, because neither SB nor MP is folding an overpair and you're obviously getting a good price to draw. Once MP makes that small raise, I think you're correct in assuming that he holds an overpair, so just call and CRAI if you hit. I don't expect him to fold to your shove very often. Seems spewy to me.

[piebear]

lol sorry couldn't resist

Yeah anyway I agree with the above that it's pretty spewey. You can be pretty sure he isn't folding an overpair here, and you're gettingg good outs to draw to your straight, so just take the cheap card imo.

[cowpig]

the guy just cold-3bet. he's never folding anything ever, and you're not even ahead of his draws, yo

[Altreg]

c/c have higher ev,so ill say c/c flop

[manbearpig]

I thought it was spewy.

I just figured I had pretty good equity even if he called. If we give him a range of overpairs outside of aces I have like 37% equity I think. I am new to this so correct me if I am wrong. But I am counting 4 aces, 4 sixes, and 2 threes as outs. If he has aces I lose a couple.

I guess the bottom line is that there is no way he is folding an overpair enough there to make this profitable, although it might not be as completely awful as it looks at first glance.