World Population Growth

[ArturiusX]

Your post just reeks of romanticism about what you perceive as the fundamental workings of planet earth. You associate change with destruction. But change is not a proof of destruction, and you'd be hard pressed to prove it, thus rendering your argument pretty specious.

[haakee]

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Wealthy countries are already shrinking if you ignore immigration/emigration.



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But that absolutely can't be ignored, IMO.

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Fact 1: Rich countries already can't sustain their populations without immigration.

Fact 2: Poor countries are becoming rich countries.

Conclusion?

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I skimmed that, but did not see - what do they (or you) mean by "naturally"?

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I used the term, not them. I mean that it will not happen due to disease or famine or war, but due to declining birth rates as the world becomes wealthier.

[jeffnc]

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Regarding OP's idea that there is too much population for resources, there's an economist named Thomas Malthus who predicted that early in the 20th century and that's been proven wrong consistently.

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I did not mean to say there is not enough resource for the current population on a global scale. What I mean to say is:
- there isn't enough resource in certain locales
- that should give us an idea of the suffering that would occur if the current population growth rate continues.

I think everyone agrees that the growth rate can't continue like this forever. I don't think that point is debated anywhere. My point was that we have some say in how it will stop, not if it stops.

[ArturiusX]

Resource shocks always limit population growth, historically. Mainly because its difficult for humans to extend beyond the resources they have.

[Kimbell175113]

OP,

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...umber=11826014

[Maulik]

"Fact 2: Poor countries are becoming rich countries."

Proof pls.

[NoMeansYes_]

I can't wait until 2300 when there are 36 BILLION PEOPLE. I'll be like, "back in my day there were only 6 billion people!" I'd also be 311.

[TwoOuter]

This is interesting:

http://www.chinability.com/China%20p...on%20clock.htm

Wonder how accurate its projections are- and how the source could be the US Census Bureau.

[billygrippo]

world population has grown since recorded history and will continue to grow. however, the rate at which it increases is on the decline.
imo we have the technology and resources in the world to healthily sustain life for everyone and then some. for this to happen the world needs to get its [censored] together, which i think will happen in the next 50-300 years.

[haakee]

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Proof pls.


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According to the world bank, GNI per capita in high income countries was up 42% in real terms from 2000-2006 vs 70% per capita in low income countries. In the 3 most populous countries in the world other than the US (all poor countries in 2000), GNI per capita has grown 116% (China), 82% (India) and 141% (Indonesia). That's 2.6 billion poor people doubling up in 6 years. Even the 800 million people in sub-Saharan Africa have grown GNI at 70+% per capita over that time.

Do you think those countries are going to fall to sub-rich-world growth rates anytime soon? I don't.

Edited to add sub-Saharan Africa #s.