interesting 50/100 hand.....

[sup_bro]

Dealt to ME [Ks As]
decand: folds
The__Wynn: folds
ME: raises $50to $100
PokerSnoopy: raises $50 to $150
mickeyk1984: raises $50 to $200
Betting is capped
happyyak: folds
Reshef: folds
Simple Simon: folds
Iberico: folds
ME: calls $100
PokerSnoopy: calls $50
*** FLOP *** [Qs Tc 5c]
ME: checks
PokerSnoopy: bets $50
mickeyk1984: raises $50 to $100
ME: calls $100
PokerSnoopy: raises $50 to $150
mickeyk1984: raises $50 to $200
Betting is capped
ME: calls $100
PokerSnoopy: calls $50
*** TURN *** [Qs Tc 5c] [Jd]
ME: bets $100
PokerSnoopy: calls $100
mickeyk1984: calls $100

my question is here is do we lead the TURN or CK the TURN with the intention of CR'ing when it comes back to us....my thoughts here were millie was going to CK after being CAPPED by mickeyk1984 on FLOP and THUS if CK'd to mickey bets the TURN i CR and millie folds so i am thinking by leading the TURN i am giong to suredly pick up millie's call and mickey's call with the hopes of mickey going bonkers with his overpair or set hit on FLOP and raising, giving myself an opportunity to throw a 3rd bet in.....was this the proper read and play??

[PokerBob]

why did you see the turn?

[Lestat]

I'm impressed. Some people couldn't think straight enough to come up with the right turn play, after getting bitch-slapped around on the flop like that.

[tmfs]

[ QUOTE ]
come up with the right turn play

[/ QUOTE ]

how this is the right turn play is beyond me, his turn donk shows sooooo much strength.

edit: if your going to announce that you have AK you might as well get at least two bets in on the turn.

[DeathDonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
why did you see the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be joking. He's getting 16:2 the first time around with two overs, a backdoor FD, and a gutter, and no reason to think its going to get 3 bet and capped.

As for the turn I think a checkraise is good because Millie is going to have a hand that may feel forced to coldcall two bets anyway (KQ, QJ, etc.)

-DeathDonkey

[blackasthma]

Difficult, perhaps, to anticipate whether max payoff will result from betting or checking here. Even if you check, exactly how will you proceed? Will snoopy bet? Will snoopy call 2 cold if you c/r mickey's bet? Tough decision - yet one in which you'd like to have more confidence, considering you just finished calling 100 flop bets on a gutshot. I'm not so certain leading the turn announces AK, but you'll probably collect at least 4 more bets with this hand as played. That said, I like the turn play. If God truly does have wood for you, the river 9 is an absolute steamroller to KK.
I think we owe sup_bro here for all his atrocious flop calls that made this interesting thread discussion possible. Had he missed the J, sup_bro no doubt would've just quietly and ashamedly swept this one under the rug ...

[Lestat]

Whether a turn bet shows strength or not, I think it needs to be made. You think a c/r doesn't show strength? Thing is, having it checked around would be sick no matter how small the chance. If last guy bets, your c/r most likely gains 2. If both call it gains 2. If 1 calls and 1 raises.... I just think betting has more potential.

[Lestat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why did you see the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be joking. He's getting 16:2 the first time around with two overs, a backdoor FD, and a gutter, and no reason to think its going to get 3 bet and capped.



[/ QUOTE ]

What's reverse implied odds again? Why is there no reason to think there will be further raising? Psnoopy bet into a pre-flop capper and there is every reason to think this pot is getting jammed. As it was, he was getting a little better than 5 to 1. Other than a perfect jack, do we even know if we want an ace or king?

I'm with PB, I don't call. I'd really like to hear arguments from others that do call here. I could be wrong, but doesn't feel right to me at all.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why did you see the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be joking. He's getting 16:2 the first time around with two overs, a backdoor FD, and a gutter, and no reason to think its going to get 3 bet and capped.

As for the turn I think a checkraise is good because Millie is going to have a hand that may feel forced to coldcall two bets anyway (KQ, QJ, etc.)

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe you're forgetting that hero opened utg+2 in a 10 handed game and he was 3bet and capped by utg+3 and utg+4. the ranges are pretty tight. for example, PS never has QJ nor KQo as you imply.


Board: Tc Qs 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.892% 11.38% 05.51% 65365 31645.67 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 40.791% 35.65% 05.14% 204745 29518.67 { QQ+, TT, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 42.318% 36.92% 05.40% 212012 31021.67 { QQ+, TT, AQs+, AQo+ }

i know nothing about mickey so let me know if that range is off (the only thing i could add is KQs i would think). i think that's an accurate range for snoopy.

with 17% equity, 8:1 seems like enough with the immediate math, but it isn't with RIO heavily outweighing IO.

[sup_bro]

for u guys to think calling 2 bets back is ridiculous, it really isnt as crazy as u think if u work the math, i obviously had no idea i was going to get "bitch slapped" the 2nd time around, but i really feel deathdonkey summized this hand as well as possible, the odds were there but WOW, people love coming down hard on this one.........