Multilevel Board - Thoughts on the most EV-Line

[Heist]

Hero (MP): $142.70
CO: $92.65


Preflop: Hero is dealt 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, CO calls $3.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($8.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $6.00</font>, CO calls $6.00

Turn: ($20.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)

Villain ist TAG. Avg. Maybe slightly better than avg.
Whatever.

His range on the turn is well defined. Most of it is a medium pp 55-TT. Parts of his range are also a slowplayed higher PP, a strong madehand (Jx,set) and a float (well, at least they should be)
I'm looking now for the most profitable line, from the turn on.

Well we have a check/fold, the EV isnt that bad, but there should be better options.

There is the option of a bet/fold: I for myself can represent a Jack, AK, higher PPs to create FoldEquity against his main range. But my EV drops the stronger the player is. He should knew that most of my made hand range should chk/call the turn, since i wouldnt get much value from betting. Therefore he is in the position to bluffraise a turnbet profitable e.g. with 88, since i can't even call with AK without history.
However, the turnbet is profitable.

What we also have is a more complicated and maybe more profitable line. We can check the turn. If he checks, we bet/fold any river and if he bets the turn, we call and still bet/fold any river. (Lets ignore stacksizes in the latter scenario, since he pushes the strongest made hands on the river and we never beat them, independent of pot odds.)

What do you think is the most profitable line? And what conditions would affect your line? (e.g. if you bet the turn and a good TAG raises, there is the option of a bluff rrai with proper stacks)

[SABR42]

I like a double barrel here. Bet $15. If he calls, give up unless you hit the miracle 4.

[gimmetheloot]

good post Heist.

If you think that the majority of his range is (I believe as well) TT-55, floats, and the occasional flopped boat and slightly more often Jx, than a c/c b/f line is nice, as is a c/r. Hes almost always going to check down his 88 or w/e, but will almost surely fire his air/Jx/boat, so his range becomes much much more defined depending on his turn action.

Which is the most +EV line to take? I dunno. Depedning if hes the tricky dude to bluff raise turn here, then probably the c/c bet-fold river is the best.

[sixhigh]

Don't you. Anything than b/f or c/f turn and c/f river is way too fancy for NL100.

Betting Turn is def. the best option as you can easily get better hands to fold and it's unlikely enough for him to have a monster. You obv. give up to any resistance as you have a pretty weak holding and no position.

[Heist]

[ QUOTE ]
good post Heist.

If you think that the majority of his range is (I believe as well) TT-55, floats, and the occasional flopped boat and slightly more often Jx, than a c/c b/f line is nice, as is a c/r. Hes almost always going to check down his 88 or w/e, but will almost surely fire his air/Jx/boat, so his range becomes much much more defined depending on his turn action.

Which is the most +EV line to take? I dunno. Depedning if hes the tricky dude to bluff raise turn here, then probably the c/c bet-fold river is the best.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right. There is the possibility of the c/r. But im not a fan of it. If he is sane, he should check that part of the range that you want him to fold. As you said, most of the time he bets a bluff or a made hand on the turn: You can consider this as a WA/WB situation with your holding. A c/r would be counterproductive.

[Heist]

s,
I'll take any necessary line to max. my EV [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[sh58]

i think the best line is to bet/fold the turn. if we had a king we should bet for value as his range is alot of pocket pairs. i think if he is good enough to bluff raise the turn then so be it. c/f is not very strong. your hand is decent. floating is a large part of his range. the c, c/c T bet/f river is bit fancy for my tastes.

[Suwalski]

I bet/fold turn. You should really be careful about I know that he knows that i know at 100NL. Cuz often he dosen't know that you know.

[Bulletproof Monk]

i c/f the turn and i dont think its close

[delta k]

I don't mind a b/f or a c/f but I do think it's impossible for us to tell you one or the other right now. with AK here i'm checking v some and betting v others, hence w/ 44, which i'm turning into AK a lot by betting here I'm doing the same.

Also our image is important because 99 calls me here a lot since that's how i roll. if you're a pretty tight player not firing w/out the good, bombs away.