Value Betting an unexpected top set on the river

[Buconero]

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6-handed (just dropped from 9-handed in last 2 hands)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $73.90
UTG+1: $200
Hero: $207.70
CO: $218.10
Button: $120
SB: $108.20
BB: $461.05

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG raises to $7, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($24, 3 players)
UTG bets $20, Hero raises to $67, CO calls, UTG folds.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($178, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($178, 3 players)
Hero ???

Further info:
I joined this table after data-mining it and others for a while. I'm on my second orbit. It was 9-handed when I joined but has just fallen to 6-handed. The UTG short-stack has VPIP/Pre-Flop Raise%/Post-Flop AF of 26/12/10 and the CO is 21/3/3.

Questions:
1. Pre-Flop: I called. I always used to reraise in this spot but since reading NLHTAP I've started calling and its worked pretty well. Any thoughts?

2. Flop: I reraise putting the short-stack exactly all-in. Unexpectedly the CO calls. Now I'm worried about a set. I rule out AA/KK as they surely would have reraised pre-flop. What sort of hands do you put him on?

3. Turn: I check for pot control and am surprised but pleased to have him check behind. Was he a calling station on the flop or is he slowplaying? What range do you now put him on?

4. River: I river top set and am now feeling much better about my hand as I now beat other sets / 2-pair hands. A backdoor flush is now possible but seems somewhat unlikely. There is now $178 in the pot and I have $133.7 left. He covers. How much should I bet and what am I hoping to be called by?

[Rainclouds]

1. Both are fine depending on table conditions

2. set, JJ, T9, QJ.

3. it makes no sense for CO to check behind here with a monster, but players make mistakes and this may be one of them. Otherwise, his most likely holding is QJ.

4. River: Openshoving is good here.
It looks bluffy, especially after the turn check and villain will think you are using the [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as a scare card. If he has 2 pair+, he will call you.
I wouldn't worry about being beat (by either a straight or flush), because if he shoves, you are going to call it anyway.

[shpanko]

Reraise pf, as played shove river

[Grunch]

I'd raise preflop because of position. You still have 2 players behind you. You want the button.

Because one of his likely marginal hands is QJ -- which just "got there" to a degree -- I bet. If you check it to him and he has QJ, he'll just check behind. By betting your missing the opportunity to get him to bluff a busted straight, but since since a big part of his range just turned in to a made hand which you beat, you're better off value betting here than trying to induce. So bet half pot.

[Buconero]

[ QUOTE ]
So bet half pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not sure on the logic behind this when I only have 2/3 pot left behind. Care to elaborate? I did give some thought at the time to a 1/3 pot bet but came to the conclusion that it was a push or check decision.

[ QUOTE ]
1. Both are fine depending on table conditions

2. set, JJ, T9, QJ.

3. it makes no sense for CO to check behind here with a monster, but players make mistakes and this may be one of them. Otherwise, his most likely holding is QJ.

4. River: Openshoving is good here.
It looks bluffy, especially after the turn check and villain will think you are using the as a scare card. If he has 2 pair+, he will call you.
I wouldn't worry about being beat (by either a straight or flush), because if he shoves, you are going to call it anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree.

One last question that occurs to me now, is what happens if he shoves the turn after I check. At the time I would have folded figuring its too likely I'm beaten but now I'm not so sure as I would have been getting 2.5 to 1 on the call. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

[early325]

1. It's okay to call sometimes, but I do it very rarely, as I 3-bet a lot of marginal hands in position as well. Don't fall in love with it though.

2. A set or 2-pair, or 78/JQ. Bad players will have A-10 here too.

3. 78/JQ and A-10 become a larger part of his range; most of time sets and 9-10 will bet this turn.

4. Shove.